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000
FXUS63 KABR 152011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

DRY AIR HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVERHEAD TONIGHT...SO WE WILL SEE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S. AS
THIS HIGH DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...MOISTURE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WILL
BACK IN FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF A DEWPOINT RECOVERY...POSSIBLY LOW 50S...MAKING MOISTURE THE
LINCHPIN WHEN IT COMES TO POPS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY...AND REGIONAL PROFILES SUGGEST STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 1000
J/KG CAPE AND THUS A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS. GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW...IF STORMS INITIATE AROUND MID DAY...THEY WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE WITH A LOW RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN WEAK AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THUS...THE DRY...COOL LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AM.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE RIDGE
ALSO BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT WITH A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. ON TUESDAY THESE WAVES WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOWEVER A LEE SIDE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE
ROCKIES. THE LLJ WILL INCREASE AND SHEAR PROFILES ALSO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS TROF SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON SPEED OF THE LAST
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF PULLING MORE PRECIP
OVER SD ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. STUCK
CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.






&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. A VORT MAX
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTORM MAY MOVE CLOSE TO KPIR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. HOWEVER MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND INSTABILITY SO
WILL NOT ADD IN PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN