Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 242332 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
632 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are finally beginning to move into the CWA
from the south and have been adjusting POPs much of the afternoon to
account for the later start time. It also appears the precip is a
tad further east than forecast, which may very well leave the James
valley dry. Will continue to see this activity slide to the north-
northeast over the next several hours, with still some potential for
a few stronger storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Focus will then shift to the winds across central/north central SD
later tonight on the back side of the low pressure. Guidance is
showing a surge in winds between 06Z and 09Z tonight as 50 to 55
knot 850mb winds move in, along with cold air advection. BUFKIT
soundings show pretty strong winds not too far off the surface, with
the ability to mix these winds down even in the overnight hours.
Strong and gusty winds look to continue into the day Sunday. Issued
a wind advisory for central SD where it appears the winds will be
strongest. Conditions do not look real favorable for wind advisory
further east.

As far as precipitation, there will likely be some wrap-around light
rain showers moving into the western CWA overnight, with activity
continuing into the morning as everything begins moving east-
northeast. Will have to keep an eye on shower potential on Sunday,
in that the area of POPs may need to be pushed further south.

High pressure will build into the area Monday night, with clear
skies and light winds. Superblend temps looked to warm for an ideal
radiational cooling night, given how the nights are growing longer
and the overall air mass is fairly cool. Sided heavily to the MAV
guidance values which show cooler temps in the upper 30s to low 40s
for most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

Upper ridging will begin to build into the Plains on Tuesday. With
the ridge in place, the extended will be warmer than average with
highs in the 70s to near 80. Sfc low pressure will move off the
Rockies for the weekend and the upper trough will exit. Models no
longer show a deep upper low during the end of the period. However,
southwest flow aloft with embedded shortwaves and the sfc low will
be enough to kick off a few showers and thunderstorms at the start
of the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

As the surface low pressure area in ND moves northeast through the
night, the large area of mvfr/low vfr stratus ceilings in MT will
move quickly southeast in behind through tonight and Sunday. All
locations are expected to be affected. There will also be
scattered light rain showers wrapping in the behind and moving
across our region. These may affect the airports but are not
expected to reduce the visibility to below 6 miles. Along with the
clouds and showers, the surface pressure gradient will tighten up
along with caa increasing, resulting in strong northwest winds
developing through the night into Sunday. Northwest winds are
expected to increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 30 to 40
knots through Sunday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Wind Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
     Sunday for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.



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