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000
FXUS63 KABR 100554
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LIGHT SNOW IS JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN CORSON
COUNTY THIS HOUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION.

AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH
IT...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY AND
ASSOCIATED CAPE WITH THIS CLIPPER. THIS SYSTEM CHARACTERISTIC
COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN VERY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE TROF AXIS. THE WINDS
WILL HAVE AN ADDED BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM.

STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH FRESH SNOW WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW THAT MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN
OPEN TERRAIN. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS EXPECTED HAZARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND VSBY WILL THEN IMPROVE.

THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE WAVE
CAUSING DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MORNING. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER APPROACHES THE REGION WED
NIGHT...THOUGH MOST PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN NORTH AND
EAST EXCEPT PERHAPS A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS TRAVERSE AND ROBERTS
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH TEMPS/WX FOR
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NW FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINATE OVER THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. BRIEF WAA SURGES WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY CAA AS
WEAK 500HPA VORTS SLIDE SE THROUGH THE REGION. NONE OF THE WAVES
REALLY PACK A BIG PUNCH FOR THE REGION...BUT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
IS PSBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THEY SLIDE
THROUGH. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NE THE WAA
SURGE WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH WAVE...GIVEN CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDS
AND NO MELTING SEEN IN NEAR FUTURE. WITH RESPECT TO THAT...HAVE
BACKED OFF TEMPS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOLLOWED COLDER EC SOLN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
FRESH SNOWFALL TO CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES
IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY 12Z
WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FALLING SNOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN