Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251745 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Surface low pressure area in central SD this morning moving east
as winds have become west at Pierre. There was also abundant mid
and high level clouds with this system along with some high based
light showers/sprinkles west of Pierre. The clouds and surface low
pressure area/trough will continue to move east into the evening.
Based off the current radar and cams, have expanded the slight
chances of showers north and east and may have to adjust even
more. Expect the strong south winds across the east to also
decrease into the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient
relaxes. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A broken line of showers with a few embedded thundershowers
continues to march eastward across the CWA early this morning, and
is now approaching the James River valley. Have been adjusting POPs
through the night to account for this eastward movement as showers
continue to hold together within warm air advection environment and
moderate to strong low level jet. Narrow ribbon of weak instability
as well over central SD but appears to wane further east. Main
surface trough is still back over western SD.

Through the day today, will be watching eastward progression of
surface trough, with southerly winds and warmer air pushing
northward out ahead of the trough. Highs will be warmer than what we
saw on Wednesday with readings topping out in the 70s. There may be
a few more showers redeveloping later today along the surface
trough, but lack of upper level support should squash any threat
much more than isolated coverage.

Friday is looking dry with continued mild temperatures with highs in
the 70s. Models are showing an upper level disturbance moving across
the region Friday night into Saturday with a chance for showers.
Again, as like several previous systems, very little in the way of
instability to work with here, so mainly just showers with maybe a
few embedded thundershowers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

An upper level low will be over central Canada Saturday evening,
with a shortwave trough extending from it south/southwestward to
Colorado. Several rounds of shortwave energy will track across the
Northern Plains as this low drops southeastward to the Great Lakes
by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning, the energy will all be
east of the area, with ridging beginning to approach from the west.

At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with a low over Canada
will swing across the CWA Saturday night. The region will then be
between the low to the east and high pressure to west, with
unsettled conditions in place, keeping at least small chances of
precipitation Sunday into the day Monday. The high then slides over
the region, resulting in dry conditions Monday night through
Wednesday.

Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through the
period, with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

ATY and ABR may have a p6sm -shra early this afternoon otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Friday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr



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