Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 292048
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH SOME CUMULUS. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. WEAK WAA ON THURSDAY WILL
PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT. WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE IN THE PATTERN DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND GIVE
OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS. QUESTION
STILL REMAINS HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF MOSTLY DRY DAYS WILL ROUND OUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN THEN
SHIFTS TO A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED ONE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
S/W ENERGY ROUNDING THE TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUMMER LIKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. READINGS WILL BE
COOLER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL
BE FOUND FARTHER WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EAST TO
LOW TO MID 90S WEST WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

OTHER THAN THE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD
THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...VIPOND


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