National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 170127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
HAS DISSIPATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUIETLY CONTINUE TO SLIP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LOWS IN THE 50S STILL
LOOK GOOD.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM

A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAINLY SKINNY CAPE AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
THE AREAS NOT EFFECTED AT ISSUANCE TIME CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE SO
GOING POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S IS REASONABLE.

ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MONDAY...IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH SKINNY CAPE
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF HIGH BASED STORMS IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT TO LOW POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SFC WEATHER AS A LEE
SIDE TROF THAT SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE. A 25 TO 30 KT
LLJ WED EVENING AND THU EVENING WILL HELP PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION. THE TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

OVER THE WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVES. STORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ACCURATELY PIN POINTED AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN