Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260537 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT SO LOWS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION NO ADVERSE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT.
STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE CWA. GIVEN THIS SET UP /LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES/ TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RAPIDLY...AND FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT.

THE HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WITH THE WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...DO THINK
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAINLY PERTAINS TO THE WESTERN CWA...AS MID LEVEL
DRY AIR WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME ACROSS THE EAST. ALMOST ALL CAM
SOLUTIONS AGREE WITH SOME SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY INFLUENCING OUR CWA...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS
FEATURE. AS OF NOW THE THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT CHANCE POPS STILL EXIST ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN CWA.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE AUGMENTED LARGELY BY
SLOW MOVING EJECTING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT ALONG WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH. A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE
GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA.

WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...IT
APPEARS THAT AN ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST SOMETIME DURING THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. SEVERAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO EXIST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL...MOST LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AT
KPIR/KMBG BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TVT
AVIATION...WISE/DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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