Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 012319 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
519 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

All indications are that the widespread low clouds will remain
across the region under weak surface high pressure slowly building
to the east. There also has been reports of some flurries and light
drizzle/freezing drizzle occurring this afternoon. This makes sense
with a deep cloud layer in the 0 to -10c range almost up to 700mb
on ABR`s morning sounding. Thus, have included slight chances of
light snow/flurries along with patchy freezing drizzle through the
night. Along with this will be some fog forming and remaining into
Friday morning. With the clouds, temperatures will also not fall
off much tonight along with not much rise in temperatures on
Friday.

The clouds will remain in for Friday night along possibly some
more fog formation. The clouds will move out on Saturday as drier
low level south to southwest winds kick in. Saturday should also
be a little warmer. Although, the snow covered areas will be
affected.

A Pacific front coming across the region on Saturday night will
bring a wind shift to the west along with milder air. Thus,
temperatures may fall off in the evening and then be steady or rise
through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Increased highs a few degrees on Sunday, more so over the snow-free
areas. Pacific front moves through Saturday night, with warmer air
aloft spreading over the region on Sunday. Mixing could be better,
but it is somewhat there nonetheless. Otherwise, no changes to temps
were made to the remaining periods. Still looking for an arctic
blast to move into the region by Tuesday, with some differences
amongst the models in timing. The 12Z GFS has sped the front up
quite a bit, bringing it through on Monday, whereas the 12Z runs of
the EC and GEM are a bit slower, holding off until Monday night or
even Tuesday. Regardless, by mid week, expect temps to be much
colder with highs in the single digits and teens and overnight lows
in the single digits to around 0 degrees. It appears there will be
some breezy winds to contend with as well so wind chills will be a
factor. Will have to keep an eye on just when the blast of cold air
moves in, because if models start trending a bit quicker to Monday,
then Monday`s highs will have to be lowered quite a bit.

Concerning precipitation, models are trending drier over the CWA
with the mid-week potential. It appears two separate pieces of
energy will try to move through the area, though both may largely
miss the CWA. First area of low pressure moves through Monday-
Tuesday time frame, but goes north and brings most of the
precipitation to ND. Next system for Wednesday-Wednesday night is
basically non-existent in the GFS, whereas the EC brings low
pressure across KS/OK and into MO, thus keeping all precipitation to
the south. SuperBlend POPs still carry quite a bit of precip chances
throughout, but imagine these will start tapering off if models
continue their drier trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Predominately mvfr cigs this evening will likely lower to ifr
overnight. Patchy zl- is also possible, especially at KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK



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