Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251729 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...SO WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY RIDE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SPEEDS DIMINISHING BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE OTHER
THING TO WATCH TODAY. CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT HIGHS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
NEEDED THERE...WILL SEE READINGS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WEAK RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN
END BY MID MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT ADVISORY SPEEDS BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. BROWN COUNTY MAY
BE BORDERLINE ON THE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS...BUT ITS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP A CONSISTENT PICTURE ACROSS THE BOARD. BECAUSE OF
WIND SPEEDS AND DEAD FUELS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...SO DID TREND
TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON A 100+
KT JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER.

THERE ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE DEEPER AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY...AND ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW MODERATE LIFT. PTYPE LOOKS TO
BEGIN AS SNOW...AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE WARMER...NEARING THE 60
DEGREE MARK ONCE AGAIN WEST RIVER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOME CONTINUED WAA PRECIP ALONG
AND EAST OF THE COTEAU. THIS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
END QUICKLY FRI EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND THE REGION.
THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP
THROUGH ON SAT NIGHT BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WHICH
WILL CAUSE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC AND DRIER WEATHER. SUPERBLEND
DOES BRING IN MORE PRECIP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BUT MODELS KEEP MOST OF
THE ENERGY NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ006>008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





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