Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141742 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1142 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1024 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Surface low and trailing cold front continue to move south across
the region. Area of light snow is also moving south-southeast with
current POP grids generally doing a good job handling things. Will
make some minor tweaks to adjust for timing and radar trends.
Still appears amounts will be under an inch. Northwest winds will
increase later this afternoon which could create some patchy
blowing snow. Highs are a bit tricky across western areas today as
it`s a bit difficult to determine just how far east the mild air
will penetrate before the onset of stronger cold air advection
later this afternoon. Have only adjusted highs a degree or two for
the most part, but there are some indications readings could get a
little warmer than forecast for the western CWA as the tongue of
mild air moves through before the cold air advection works in.
Will make appropriate adjustments over the next few hours. May
also have to make some changes to wind chill headlines today based
on new apparent T grids as adjustments to temps/winds are made.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow mainly this afternoon, gusty winds late this afternoon
into this evening, and cold with wind chills from late tonight on
are the themes for this short term forecast. Lingering light
precipitation has ended over our southwestern counties, as the
initial sfc low/trough has exited across the the SD/NE border. Warm
air advection will continue through much of the morning, as 850mb
temps rise about 3C from the initial range of -6 to -13C (lowest
east). Still expecting sfc temps to rise into the 20s to low 30s
southwest, to the upper teens to low 20s northeast.

A more organized low across central Manitoba has a cold front
extending southwest near the MT/ND/Canadian border. This will be the
main feature of interest today. The sfc low will slide over the
northern ND/MN/Manitoba by 15Z, with the cold air and northwest
winds on our doorstep as the cold front begins to extend into our
northwestern counties. Expect this boundary to slide across the
northwestern half of the cwa by 18Z, and through the entire area by
22Z as the elongated sfc low sets up from north central to
southwestern MN. Winds will increase behind the front, with patchy
blowing snow possible with the newly fallen light snow. New snow
should be around an inch or less, with the lighter amount over our
northwest counties, and amounts closer to an inch southwest and east
of ABR. Cold Arctic air will again take hold. Confidence is high
that we will reach Wind Chill Warning criteria over our eastern
counties. Either lighter winds, or fewer hours of -35F or colder
should keep the rest of the area in Advisory criteria from late this
evening through the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A relatively tranquil period is expected during the long term, along
with warming. The highly meridional pattern in place at the
beginning of the period will gradually break down as energy over the
Pacific Ocean sweeps away the western conus ridge. The pattern
evolution will allow for the cold air over the central US to get
replaced with a milder airmass come mid week. It also looks to be
quiet, with any pcpn chances holding off until next weekend.
Temperatures will start the period well below normal, but then trend
to above normal by mid to late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Areas of -SN will move southeast across the region this afternoon,
with IFR/MVFR visibility at times. Increasing northwest winds
through the afternoon may also bring some patchy BLSN. A mix of
CIGs will be found across the area, ranging from IFR in the KATY
region to MVFR and low end VFR elsewhere.


SD...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-

     Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for

     Wind Chill Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon CST Tuesday for

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for

MN...Wind Chill Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday for



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