Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION
THIS MORNING AROUND THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND PUSH IT EAST THROUGH
MID DAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...AND THIS IS JUST THE FIRST OF SUCH. ADD IN A SURGE
EASTWARDS OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +18C ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO THINKING JUST
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.

ANOTHER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST DYNAMICS
NORTH OF THE CWA...THOUGH A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TO HELP
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NON-SEVERE CONVECTION FOR THE EASTERN CWA.

FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS MORE ZONAL AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT WITH THE
UPPER HIGH SOUTH AND A WAVE PASSING NORTH. PROFILES ARE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SKINNY CAPE...SO CANT
RULE OUT A STRAY STORM. FRIDAY NIGHT...ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER
HIGH COULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE WESTERLY FLOW
WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION LEADING TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ENHANCED MIXING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD/DRY AND WINDY
DAY WHICH MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.





.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND DEGREE OF COLDNESS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. MUCH OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE PRECIP
FREE...WHILE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES COULD
BE RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH
IS MUCH BELOW CLIMO NORMAL TERRITORY.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL SITES AFTER 11Z IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA
AFTER 9Z. KEPT ANY MENTION OF VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS SINCE THERE IS
STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ANY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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