Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 141138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
638 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level wave of concern
over the northern Rockies. At the surface, the inverted trough is
over western SD. CAM solutions have been consistent over the past
several hours in showing a large increase in showers across central
SD between 12Z and 15Z this morning, as synoptic scale lift
increases with the approaching upper trough. Overall, precipitation
seems to have slowed by a few hours, so have made the appropriate
changes in the grids. Look for rain to move into the James River
valley by early afternoon, then activity will continue pushing east
through the afternoon. Will continue with the very high chances for
precipitation today, and have increased POPs over central SD a bit
more to reflect latest trends. Also lowered high temps today as the
onset of clouds and precip later this morning will keep temps from
climbing much. Cold air advection will spread over the area this
afternoon as well, and may actually see temps slowly falling by mid
to late afternoon for many areas. This system will exit the area
later this evening, and have dry conditions in the forecast after

The rest of the short term is quiet and features warming
temperatures. After a chilly morning Sunday with lows in the 20s and
30s, highs will rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s. Monday will
begin the real warm up as we see 850 mb temps climb into the teens
Celsius with west to southwest mixing winds. Highs will be well
above normal with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Compared to 24 hours ago, not much has changed in the 00Z GSM
deterministic solutions. The 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Table is running
between 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo normal for
temperature mid to late week. Superblend`s highs into the 70s in
some spots seems like a good starting point. It`s possible that by
the end of the period, one or more s/w`s in southwest flow aloft are
making a case for another quick shot at some light precipitation.
Otherwise, the entire period is dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

VFR conditions are not going to last much longer, except perhaps
at KMBG. But, for KPIR, KATY and KABR, expect conditions to be
transitioning to MVFR by around 18Z today as lower cigs move in
from the south (KPIR/KATY) or lower in height from above (KABR).
Also, expect visibility to drop to MVFR (perhaps even briefly to
IFR) at times throughout the day today with any heavier rain
shower that moves through. Precipitation and sub-VFR flying
weather conditions are supposed to be moving quickly away from
this region by early to mid-evening.




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