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000
FXUS63 KABR 132027
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
327 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CHILLY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
READINGS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW FAVORED COOL
SPOTS MAY DIP INTO THE TEENS WHERE WINDS GO A BIT LIGHTER.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF WITH IT. AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SLEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

NEXT AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WARM
DECENTLY...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT CHANCES LOOK DECENT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
EARLY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATE AT NIGHT.
GFS IS A BIT QUICKER IN BRINGING IN THE COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
EC.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE FLOW PATTERN
AND ITS EVOLUTION OVER THE LONG TERM. AFTER ABOUT 96 HOURS
AGREEMENT IS MIDDLING ON HOW CUT OFF ENERGY GETS HANDLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DRIVING LOW SOUTH INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE
GEM/ECMWF TEND TO KEEP ANY LOW/ENERGY FURTHER NORTH AND A BIT
PROGRESSIVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...HOWEVER MOST MODELS
STILL CRANK OUT SOME PCPN FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN CWA AS WELL AS
POINTS NORTH AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR SAID TIME PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY
ALTHOUGH WITH THE MODELS SO FLAKY...ITS HARD TO SAY IF THAT
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY WHEN REVISITED IN THE FUTURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COLDER THAN NORMAL BUT SHOULD TREND
TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS WILL END OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE LOSING THEIR GUSTINESS. ANOTHER DECK OF LOWER VFR
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE TNT OR MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN