Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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163
FXUS63 KABR 280211 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

No tonight period forecast changes planned at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The models were in good agreement with the track of the large upper
level low pressure system moving out of the southwest U.S. and into
the Central Plains through the short term. The models did all show
slightly different solutions on how much rainfall they wanted to
spread into our region through this time period. Best indications
for rainfall later tonight into Wednesday look to be west of the
Missouri River and areas south of Pierre. Northeast SD and west
central MN don`t look favorable for rain. The superblend chances did
not change much from the previous forecast. Otherwise, the setup
tonight and early Tuesday looks favorable for more fog formation
mainly along the James Valley and east. The winds will be light
southeast with high rh along with mostly clear skies. The light rain
chances will leave the southeast CWA Wednesday night. Highs the next
few days should be mostly in the 50s across the CWA along with winds
generally under 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level split flow pattern will continue through a better
portion of the long term. The period begins with one storm system
crossing the central plains with another diving southward along the
Rockies. The second system will have some northern stream jet
support with PCPN possible in western portion of the CWA Friday
night through Saturday. Models disagree with pcpn chances early next
week. The Canadian and ECMWF brings pcpn into the region on Monday,
while the GFS keeps pcpn further south. Based on the current weather
pattern, Monday could end up being dry. Temperatures through the
period will remain above normal with highs in the 50s and 60s, with
lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through
the valid TAF period except a couple of hours either side of
sunrise Tuesday morning. There could be some short-lived sub-VFR
fog developing. Precipitation potential on Tuesday appears to stay
away from this region, but if any terminal in this forecast area
were to be impacted it would likely be the KPIR terminal.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn



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