Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 302326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND THIS STRATUS
COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS
ERODING NICELY ON THE  FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD PRETTY QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTH...MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40
TO 50 DEGREES...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES
CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARD
06Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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