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000
FXUS63 KABR 121802 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
102 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM HAMLIN THROUGH BIG STONE
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND
DISSIPATE...HOWEVER EXPECT RAINFALL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATED THE CURRENT POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
LIKEWISE...CLOUD COVER IS GOING TO STICK AROUND LONGER THAN THE
ORIGINAL FORECAST ANTICIPATED...SO KNOCKED DOWN TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES AS WELL.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WILL
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA...WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION CROSSING THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR VIA CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW CONVECTION FOR
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO
THE LOWER TEENS. SOME MODELS EVEN SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
IN KMBG ON THURSDAY EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES...OR BASICALLY CAPPED OFF.

THE MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO ERODE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY FROM NEAR KMBG...SOUTHEASTWARD TO KATY. THIS EROSION IN THE
MID LEVELS PLUS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR KMBG BY 6Z FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
TRACK ESE TOWARDS KATY BY 12Z. THESE STORMS SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE
CWA BY MID MORNING...ALLOWING THE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
DESTABILIZED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...OR WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA. FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA COULD RESULT IN STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
STORMS.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SHORT DISCUSSION DUE TO SVR WEATHER THIS MORNING. OVERALL THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH SYSTEM LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND. THEN RIDGE RE-BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IT DOES APPEAR THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY
AFTER THAT INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WHERE
BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. KPIR APPEARS TO BE THE
ONLY TERMINAL THAT WILL NOT RECEIVE ANY OF THIS RAINFALL. VFR
FLYING WEATHER...DESPITE THE RAINFALL...SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT PERHAPS RIGHT BEFORE
SUNRISE AT KABR...KMBG AND KATY WHERE SOME LIGHT RADIATION/GROUND
FOG MIGHT GET GOING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TODAY`S
RAINFALL COULD TRANSLATE INTO SOME FOGGY CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN/SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN