Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
358 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low is currently near Sioux City, with wrap around rainfall
moving northward through FSD CWA. Models continue to bring this rain
into the southeast CWA later this morning, with additional shower
and thunderstorm development through the day across portions of the
remainder of the CWA. It would seem the best precip chances today
will be across the southeast CWA where wrap around precip will be
occurring. Elsewhere, more of a hit-and-miss type of scenario as
convection will be more scattered in activity. With instability and
shear lacking once again, the severe weather threat will be very low.

Focus will then shift to Monday as strong shortwave energy digs
southeast into MT. Breezy southeast winds will draw up low level
moisture as a surface low develops across eastern MT and WY and
moves into the western Dakotas. A plume of moderate instability
develops across central SD during the afternoon with 0-6km bulk
shear values around 40 to 45 knots. SPC`s day 3 outlook already has
the western CWA in a slight risk. Models indicating convective
initiation across the western/central Dakotas Monday afternoon with
activity pushing east through the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The mid level pattern will undergo a shift in the long term. Mid
level ridging building along the west coast will help dig a decent
looking trof southeast toward the Northern Plains early next week. A
strong front will accompany that system and move across the region
Tuesday night.  Showers/storms are expected with that front.  Behind
the system more showery weather is expected for Tuesday and
Wednesday but coverage will only be isolated to scattered at best.
The rest of the work week looks dry.  The front will also usher in a
batch of cooler/drier air out of Canada. Therefore temperatures
through much of the forecast time period will average out below


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at all
sites except KATY. MVFR cigs will move over KATY and may
occasionally affect KABR between 13z and 24z Saturday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday, but confidence
is low in timing and areal extent so did not add vcts at this time.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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