Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
FXUS63 KABR 300823
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
323 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
A cold front is slowly sinking southward this morning as a Canadian
high pressure building into the region. A few CAMS are suggesting
the cold front will stall today with isolated thunderstorms possible
across southern SD. A few storms could affect this CWA per the NAM.
Will maintain a dry forecast for now, however.
The Canadian high pressure and upper level ridging will dominate
the rest of the short term portion of the forecast. These weather
features will bring dry conditions, along with above normal
temperatures to the region. High temperatures through Thursday will
average in the upper 70s, in western MN, to the upper 80s, along and
west of the Missouri River. The surface high pressure will shift
east of the region on Thursday with the pressure gradient
strengthening, especially in the western Dakotas. The combination of
the strong winds and low humidity, fire weather will be a concern
Thursday afternoon for west river counties.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016
Upper level ridge will be centered over the Dakotas on Thursday,
with an increasing pressure gradient as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. Upper ridge pushes east on Friday with flow
becoming more southwesterly. Pressure gradient tightens even more as
southerly flow increases ahead of developing low pressure to the
west. Friday looks to be a windy day with gusty south winds.
Temperatures will be warm as well Thursday and Friday, with highs in
the 80s and low 90s.
Precipitation looks to enter the picture Friday night as the surface
trough moves through the area. Chances will continue right through
the weekend as well as the trough potentially gets hung up a bit
over the eastern CWA, which the 12Z EC suggests. Then, models are
suggesting a stronger wave of low pressure could move northeast into
the area along the stalled out frontal boundary. The EC is showing a
much stronger system, with widespread showers and thunderstorms
Sunday night into Monday morning.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016
High pressure will build into the region behind an exiting cold
front. Other than some possible patchy morning fog near KATY, vfr
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.