Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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153
FXUS63 KABR 262017
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A deep upper low continues to spin north of the Great Lakes this
afternoon, keeping the northern plains in northwest flow aloft. Dry
conditions are expected through the short term. The upper ridge will
gain a little ground over the Dakotas on Tuesday, settling firmly
into place by late Wednesday. This means high temperatures will be
cooler over the eastern cwa than the western cwa, with a gradient
visible around the James Valley. Some cooler air dipping into the
east on arctic high pressure Wednesday morning will also throw a
wrench in the works as some stratus may be drawn down with the
shortwave in the axis of the high. Cloud cover will keep highs on
Wednesday in the 60s. Models are likely a little too low on the
highs, however, as well as a few degrees too warm on lows.

Before the clouds move in, the main concern will be frost potential
tonight and Tuesday night. For now, it looks like lows will fall
into the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight with some isolated cooler
temps in Brown. Marshall, and Day counties. Have some patchy frost
mentioned in the grids for an hour or two toward morning. As the
gradient relaxes even more and the sfc high approaches on Tuesday
night, the potential for more widespread frost and temps in the
lower to mid 30s looks better. A frost headline may be necessary Tue
night.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A surface ridge axis will remain in place across MN beginning
Thursday and somewhat lasting even through the weekend. This will
still have enough of an effect on the area in that it will bring
pleasant/dry conditions to the region. Temperatures will be mild
with a steady south to southeast breeze through the time period. By
the time we get to Sunday and into early next week, more inclement
weather may be trying to enter the picture. Superblend POPs finally
bring precip chances into the area on Sunday, but not sold on this
yet and can see these POPs being reduced or cut in coming forecast
cycles. Maybe a bit better chance for precip by Monday when an
actual surface trough may be sliding through the area. At least
that`s what the GFS and EC are trying to show at this point, but
that`s still a week out. Until then though, things look dry and
pleasant from Thursday through much of the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT



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