Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD






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