Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251747
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1247 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP FORECAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR
AND HI-RES MODEL TRENDS. TROWAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN CWA BUT THERE IS A DISTINCT BREAK SOUTH OF HWY 212. COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES NORTH OUT OF NEBRASKA SO
TRIED TO REFLECT THAT IN THE POPS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
TEMPS OR WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE
COLORADO/WYOMING COMMON BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MEANS CONTINUED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. AND WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY ANTICIPATED IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO
THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST
INITIALLY...BUT QUICKLY TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ADVECTING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
FIELDS...BUT EVEN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS BACK
IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THEN INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST RIVER
WHERE ML CAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR IS IN
THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GOOD SET UP FOR IT
ANYWAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
LIFTING OUT OF THE LARGER/DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF OVER ROCKIES. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS MID-LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE WORKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAT OF THE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE ENERGY IN THIS WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROF LOOKS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE ROCKIES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
FORCING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE CANADIAN-
SOURCED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHING A HOME OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST /LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT 70S
TO LOWER 80S/ OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR KMBG...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 8-13Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SD


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