Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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049
FXUS63 KABR 220535 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1135 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 919 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Winds have picked up out of the southeast this evening bringing in
warmer air. This along with increasing clouds will allow
temperatures to maybe fall a few more degrees this evening and
then remain nearly steady or even increase through the night.
Thus, will increase overnight lows.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Temperatures have struggled to climb today for many areas where snow
cover is the deepest, especially in the Pierre region. This only
complicates the low temp forecast for tonight as it will be
difficult to balance the effects of increasing southerly winds and
weak warm air advection with the clear skies and snow cover. Feel
there will be a drop off in temps after sunset, with temps perhaps
steadying out late. Dropped lows from previous forecast and tanked
Aberdeen`s temp, but unfortunately have low confidence in lows today
based on the aforementioned variables.

Main story in the short term is the system moving through the region
Thursday into Thursday night. Models are in pretty good agreement
overall, and have generally increased their QPF output along with
moving westward even more in the QPF footprint. Followed this trend
accordingly in regards to POP/snow accum grids. In general, looking
at 2 to 5 inches of accumulation across eastern South Dakota into
west central Minnesota. Have therefore issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for the eastern CWA. Winds still appear to be a non-factor
during this event, so do not expect much in the way of lowered
visibility due to blowing snow. Soundings do still show a small
potential for some light freezing drizzle towards the tail end of
the event, but given low confidence and expected short duration,
opted to keep out of forecast at this time and let overnight shift
take a closer look.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

Upper troughing will remain in place over the Plains through the
extended period. The pattern at the sfc will be a bit more dynamic
with a series of lows and highs. The first area of low pressure will
bring 1 to 3 inches of snow to far eastern SD and west central MN on
Saturday. Drier air quickly pushes in behind the low and will cut
off the moisture feed, thereby limiting snow accumulation from
reaching its potential. Models disagree on the possibilities of snow
for the end of the period. At the moment, the GFS keeps any precip
south of the region.

Temperatures will likely remain near or below climo norms through
the period. However, there are no significant incursions of Arctic
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate on Thursday as an upper
level low pressure trough moves in. Snow will spread in from the
south on Thursday with lowering ceilings and vsbys for all
locations. The heaviest snow and lowest vsbys will occur at ABR and
ATY with vsbys below a mile. One to 4 inches of snow are expected.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for SDZ006>008-011-018>023-037-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Thursday to midnight CST
     Thursday night for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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