Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290539
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WILL STILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN CASE A STRAY
SHOWER POPS UP. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN
PLAINS...AND IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THE SHOWERS AROUND THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.

SURFACE HIGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A MOIST NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW OF AIR OVER
THE STATE. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES ALL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE EAST WINDS PROVIDE UP SLOPE FLOW/LIFT OF LOW LEVEL
AIR. CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK WITH ALL
FORECAST ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECREASE AND HAS MAINLY
SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STARTING TO SHOW
UP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLING THIS WELL. ONLY CHANGES FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
WAS TO UP CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...CLOUDY AND MUCH COOLER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO
THE 50S MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH NEAR A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRACK OF A MID LEVEL S/WV MOVING
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND SOUTH LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH. WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE EXITING OFF TO THE EAST...COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. A STEADY EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
ALSO RESULT IN EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LEAD S/WV IMPULSES ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE
DAY MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS WEST. DRY EAST WHICH WILL
STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND SFC HIGH.
WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY MONDAY FROM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE 50F DEGREES. WARMER EAST WHERE I EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT DIRECTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION TO WARRANT
WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH VERY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES.

AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS WEDNESDAY...TWO ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THESE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS POTENT AS THE EARLY WEEK WAVE
AND SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER AND BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS. BUT...THIS THESE FEATURES ARE STILL A WAYS OUT AND
WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER LATE THIS WEEK.

OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LCL LIFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND MID-DAY MONDAY WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
MVFR OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS INCREASE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY AFFECTING
KDIK/KISN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV






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