Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 062341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
541 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

At 5 PM central, a surface high is centered over northwest North
Dakota with mostly clear skies over most of the forecast area.
Temperatures have already dropped below forecast minimum
temperatures in parts of the west so will need to lower
temperatures some here. Expect we will need to visit temperatures
numerous times this evening. Band of clouds in eastern Montana is
expected to spread into North Dakota tonight, this will end the
temperature drop west and will likely see temperatures rise while
they continue to fall central. Stay Tuned.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over the Canadian
prairies settling into the northern plains. Upper level analysis
places trough stretching from the Great Lakes towards the four
corners region with ridge over the Pacific northwest. Fast
northerly flow remains over our area.

For tonight...a chilly night is on tap as surface high continues
to settle over the area.

On Thursday...temperatures will moderate some with highs climbing
to near average as Pacific ridge starts to scamper east. Quiet
weather continues through the day, though a fast moving wave will
zip through the region in the evening. This feature will pass
mainly to the east of the area. With that said, a little light
snow over eastern locations will not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The long term appears rather quiet and mild as the main storm
track shifts east. Temperatures will gradually warm going into the weekend.
An unsettled pattern returns to start the week bringing occasional
precipiation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The RAP/HRRR models are indicating a period of IFR/MVFR ceilings
at KMOT and KJMS Wednesday morning, and possibly more extensive,
in a band of clouds behind an exiting high pressure system. There
is some support from medium range models but would like to see
925-850 mb humidity a little higher. For now will add a mention of
MVFR ceilings at these two sites and monitor for possibly
expanding the area of MVFR ceilings and/or adding IFR.




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