Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 112333
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT USHERS IN A RETURN OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A BAND
OF OVERCAST SKIES AND SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
WHICH IS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNNY SKIES HAVE ALLOWED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY CUMULUS TO FORM
INLAND FROM THE LAKES ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.

TONIGHT THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER AROUND SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LEAVING SKIES INTO THIS EVENING. TOWARD
MIDNIGHT A QUICK MOVING AREA OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OVER
LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDING UP SKIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE
BORDERING COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WITH CLEAR
SKIES REDEVELOPING. A LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOLER SPOTS FOUND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY. AREAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
SHOULD ONLY FALL TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. BUFKIT CROSSOVER FOG
FORECASTING SCHEME AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
ERIE EARLY SATURDAY SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ERIE. DRIER AIR ADVECTING EAST WILL BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN WHAT
WE SAW THIS EARLIER FRIDAY MORNING SO DO NOT FEEL THE FOG WILL BE AS
DENSE IF IT DOES IN FACT SET UP.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION TO START ON SATURDAY WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO A INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS INLAND WILL REACH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WILL BE A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER.
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE LAKES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT FROM PA AND THE LOWER
LAKES IN THE MORNING TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EVENING. A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER TO THE +3C TO +5C RANGE BY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MANY
AREAS. IT APPEARS THE SSW FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
LAKE BREEZES...SO THE ONLY LAKE COOLING WILL BE ALONG THE NIAGARA
RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

SATURDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES AND INTO THE NICKEL BELT OF ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO FAST AND TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. NONETHELESS...AN INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SUPPORTED BY A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME LIMITED ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID
TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
SUNDAY MORNING...SO A FEW MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO END AND SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH LOOK TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH THEIR FRONTAL POSITION AND TOO WET...LIKELY DUE TO
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION. 850MB TEMPS REACH AT LEAST +10C BY AFTERNOON...
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO COOLER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS LIKELY NOT DROPPING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE START
OF THE LONG TERM AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THEN PUSHES SLOWLY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AFTER ONE MORE VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY...THIS WILL BRING A SHARP COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ON MONDAY OUR REGION WILL STILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

BY THE END OF THE DAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
NY...SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER WILL SUPPORT A FAIRLY WIDE AND
EXPANDING BAND OF RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
INITIALLY MONDAY EVENING. THE STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DYNAMICS WOULD
SUGGEST A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG DESPITE THE LIMITED
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
FRONT WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE ANABATIC IN NATURE OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING COMES TOGETHER BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ONE OR MORE SUBTLE WAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF RAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL LINGER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH SNOW CHANCES SPREADING TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
EAST. THE PRECISE TIMING OF VARIOUS FRONTAL WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD AIR WILL DECIDE WHETHER THERE WILL JUST BE WET FLAKES IN
THE AIR...OR WHETHER SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SUITES...IT
WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THIS BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

THE MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT IS MUCH MORE
CERTAIN...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY SOME 35 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN NY. SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F.

ANY PRECIP THAT IS LEFT TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD CHANGE TO MAINLY
SNOW...AND SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE MOVES EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. IT WILL STILL BE VERY CHILLY
HOWEVER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AT BEST. THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER A LITTLE BY THURSDAY. HAVE FAVORED THE DRIER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH MATCHES PREVIOUS MODEL
CONTINUITY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STALLED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ALSO EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAFS SITES.
SUNNY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED WITH VFR LEVEL SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS POPPING UP INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

TONIGHT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND KEEPING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A QUICK MOVING AREA OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF VFR
CIGS TO KIAG/KROC /KART OVERNIGHT. RESULTS FROM THE CROSSOVER FOG
FORECASTING TECHNIQUE INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY IFR FOG
06-12Z SATURDAY ACROSS KBUF/KIAG/KJHW. THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS WNY SHOULD PREVENT VLIFR DENSE FOG.
ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING AGAIN IN LAND FROM THE LAKES.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...DETERIORATION TO MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE FOR LOCAL IFR FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SLIDES BY
ACROSS THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE BULK OF THE
WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SWEEPS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS GROWING FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE A SNOWPACK REMAINS IN PLACE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A SNOW PACK OF OVER A FOOT. WATER LEVELS
HAVE STEADILY RISEN WITH EVEN SOME OF THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS
IN OR APPROACHING ACTION STAGE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE SNOW
MELTING PROCESS AND CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.
ANY FLOODING ISSUES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE ONLY MINOR AND CONFINED
TO THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. ANY ICE COVER LEFT ON THE
WATERWAYS WILL LIKELY MOVE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ICE JAM ISSUES.

BIGGER HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS  FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL
COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING POTENTIAL NOT ONLY ON THE SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS...BUT THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AS WELL. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR THE BLACK RIVER TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY
FOR THE TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...TMA




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