Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1053 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







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