Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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548
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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