Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE KEEPING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SAVE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES...CLEAR TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NEW YORK STATE. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE SHOULD SLIDE BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S IN MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY...BUT
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND
+4C TO +6C BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS FRONT SHOULD
COME THROUGH DRY.

IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 1000-500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES SWINGING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A VERY STABLE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INCOMING AIR MASS LOOKS QUITE DRY...BUT ALSO QUITE CHILLY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -2C BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON.
ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MOISTURE FLUXING OFF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDINESS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES.
THE NORTH COUNTY SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE LIKELY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DURING THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TO
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...POSSIBLY EVEN
WARMER LOOK LIKELY FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY
HOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. CLASSIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD PROTECT THE AREA FROM PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKING
TO TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY
CHILLY AIR TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION...WITH A COUPLE OF
EXCEPTIONS. THE FIRST WILL BE AREAS EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...WHERE PATCHY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR/LOW
VFR CIGS AT TIMES. THE SECOND WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...
WHERE SOME LOCALIZED IFR VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH LONG ENOUGH.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANY SUCH FOG AND LOWER CIGS WILL LIKELY MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING AWAY FROM THE LAKES...AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...BRINGING LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND THE
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. BY
LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOME OF THE LOWER VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PUSH TO
AS FAR SOUTH AS A KBUF-KROC LINE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE NOW BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AREAWIDE...AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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