Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 200636
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS DESPITE TEMPS DIPPING INTO UPPER TO MID 30S THIS MORNING.
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER MAY
DROP AS LOW AS AROUND 30 BUT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED
HERE.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS
NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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