Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 291813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS CONTROL OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FAIR WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LAST BIT OF VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON WITH MID LAYER
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...ONE THAT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT LEAVING OUR AREA DRY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED TO NON EXISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST. THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL EARLY OCT VALUES...WITH THE
HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE COMING AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.

THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DESCRIPTION IS A LITTLE SIMPLISTIC
THOUGH...AS THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A PESKY CLOSED H5 LOW IN
THE VCNTY OF NW PENNSYLVANIA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO SUPPORT A
LEFTOVER SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...A WEAK
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER A CAP BASED ARND 3K FT WILL KEEP A
WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES
PRTLY/MSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH H85 TEMPS ARND 10C
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70.

MORE DEFINITIVE CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE H5
RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND ITS CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A VERY ENERGETIC LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL GENERATE A DEEPENING
CUTTER STORM IN THE VCNTY OF CHICAGO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION...WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING TO AN
AVERAGE OF 12C...WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THURSDAY SHOULD THUS BE ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME VALLEY THERMOMETERS AND SITES NEAR THE IAG ESCARPMENT
PUSHING CLOSE TO 80F. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BE DOWNRIGHT WARM
WITH READINGS ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS NOT FALLING OUT OF THE 60S. TO
PUT THIS INTO SOME PERSPECTIVE...OUR NORMAL MAX TEMPS AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR STRETCH OF INDIAN SUMMER WILL COME TO A CLOSE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INVADE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE SOME 20 DEG F LOWER DURING THE WEEKEND THAN FROM READINGS
DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.

SYNOPTICALLY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEPENING CUTTER
STORM THAT WILL LIFT ALMOST DUE NORTH FROM CHICAGO FRIDAY...WHILE
SWEEPING A PATTERN CHANGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL COMPLICATE TEMPERATURES A BIT. HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST WITH THE
LATER FROPA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AIR.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP LONGWAVE
TROUGH LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IT ALSO
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 0C TO -2C...WILL MAKE IT TOUGH FOR HIGH TEMPS TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FALL
BACK INTO THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IN A WEST TO EAST RIDGE. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHCENTRAL GREAT LAKES HAS SLOWED TO SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT...POISED TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT OVERALL CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH A
VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MID LEVEL CEILINGS  AFTER DAYBREAK.
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG
WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD...IT WILL
STILL INFLUENCE THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MINIMAL WAVES THROUGH TUESDAY. BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WITH
A NORTHEAST WIND DIRECTION FROM A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC WAVES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO. ON
LAKE ERIE WAVES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1 FOOT ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN RETURN TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY FRIDAY... PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM/RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...THOMAS







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