Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231730
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is on its way with highs slowly climbing through the 70s and
into the 80s by the weekend.  After a dry day across Western New
York on Tuesday, a scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible
each day leading up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With a slow moving upper level low over the Mid Atlantic region, the
flow throughout the atmospheric column is out of the northeast. This
fairly unusual pattern overhead will break down as a ridge upstream
begins to move east toward NY.  This will eventually usher in our
first real taste of summer as southwesterly flow begins to advect
warmth and moisture toward the region.  However, we should be able
to squeak out at least one more cool night (50s and perhaps upper
40s in portions of the Southern Tier) tonight under clear skies
while high pressure moves through the OH valley. There may be just
enough low level moisture in the Southern Tier for a return of
valley fog late tonight.   On Tuesday, expect a little less inland
cumulus with a drier low level airmass.  Highs should end up a few
degrees warmer as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave will move from western
to southeastern Ontario, flattening out the riding aloft and
forcing a weak frontal boundary across the forecast area. The most
dynamic forcing with the wave will track through the North Country
Wednesday, but showers will also organize along the frontal
boundary being forced through WNY and the northern Finger Lakes.
Expect a broken line of showers to cross the region from NW early
Wednesday morning to SE Wednesday afternoon. By Wednesday
afternoon, diurnal heating may be enough to generate some limited
instability across the interior western Southern Tier and interior
portions of the North Country. Thus showers and thunderstorms may
become more widespread as the boundary pushes southeastward during
the day. Locations near the lakes will likely see improving
conditions into the afternoon as the front pushes SE, as well as
stabilizing influences from Lakes Erie and Ontario. 850MB
temperatures of +12C on Wednesday morning will present afternoon
high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and continued
warmth in the boundary layer and higher dewpoints will result in
overnight low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday
night should feature some quiet weather as any diurnally boosted
showers die out behind the passing wave.

By Thursday, ridging will be solidly in place across the eastern
CONUS, however, shortwaves and convective remnants will eject from
the plains toward the Great Lakes. This will possibly bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Temperatures will
continuing the warming trend as the ridge axis shifts to our east.
Highs will push to the upper 70s to lower 80s, despite some cloud
cover and shower chances, as 850 mb temps increase to about +14 C.
Showers should slowly diminish Thursday night with loss of daytime
heating, but the lingering cloud cover and increasingly warm and
moist airmass will keep overnight lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summer-like weather is on the way, just in time for Memorial Day
weekend, complete with increasing humidity and daily chances for
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The overall pattern will evolve with the forecast area located near
the northern periphery of a large scale ridging centered just off
the mid-Atlantic coast. The placement of the ridge will not only
allow a steady feed of warm and moist air into the region, but will
also supply numerous shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge as
forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms especially during
peak diurnal heating. Otherwise hard to pinpoint which day may
feature highest chances for convection...and thus will have just
chance PoPs through the day time and early evening hours.
Greatest chances will be the inland lake breezes over the northern
Niagara Frontier and hilly region east of Lake Erie...and higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario.

At 500 hPa heights will slowly increase through the long term
period...and at 850 hPa...air temperatures will range from +14 to
+17c through the period. Warmest 850 hPa temperatures will come
Saturday...during the peak height of the upper level ridge. The
southerly flow will also build the humidity through this period with
uncomfortable levels reached by the end of the week. Dewpoints will
reach to around 60F to the lower 60s. Air temperatures will likely
increase a degree each day...as 500 hPa heights slowly increase.
Afternoon highs will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Would
not rule out some mid-80s by the weekend for the Genesee Valley and
for lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. There will not be much
airflow under the ridge...but a SW wind will likely develop each
day...keeping the City of Buffalo a few degrees cooler...with the
cooling extending out to near the airport. Along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline...and then the western Saint Lawrence Valley...air
temperature will be a few degrees cooler owing to the still cool
eastern Great Lakes. Overnight lows will drop back into the lower
60s...and with a similar airmass all four nights should have similar
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday as a slowly ridge moves
toward the Eastern Great Lakes region.  There be some inland valley
fog over the Southern Tier again tonight, although coverage should
be even more sparse.  Look for mainly clear skies with little if any
cumulus field on Tuesday.

Outlook...
Tuesday Night and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes tonight
through Tuesday.  This will maintain light winds and flat wave
action for the next few days. The tranquil pattern will continue
through the end of the week, although a few thunderstorms may
produce locally higher winds and waves at times each day from
Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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