Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 130547
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle across the region today, lowering humidity
and bringing increasing amounts of sunshine. Fair weather and
typical mid-August temperatures will persist into mid-week with
nothing more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Behind a cold front, just a few showers linger across the So. Tier.
Dewpoints are still mild and as the surface temperatures cool to near
these dewpoints overnight some patches of fog will be possible,
across the hills of SW NYS, as well as portions of the Finger Lakes
region. Northwest upslope flow and a weak surface trough may linger
a few showers across the North Country, and SE of Lake Ontario later
tonight.

Modest cold advection will drop temperatures into the lower 60s on
the lake plains by daybreak, with mid 50s across the interior
Southern Tier and Tug Hill region.

On Sunday NW upslope flow will continue to support low stratus
through mid morning across much of the area. Late morning through
the afternoon the stratus deck will break apart into diurnal cumulus
with daytime heating and mixing. The higher terrain will trend from
overcast to partly sunny later in the day, while stable lake shadows
develop southeast of the lakes with increasing amounts of sunshine
for the lake plains during the afternoon. A narrow local convergence
zone may keep more clouds in the Buffalo Metro area through the
afternoon. A slightly cooler airmass will support highs in the mid
70s across lower elevations and around 70 on the hills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sprawling high pressure will build across the forecast area for the
first half of the week bringing seasonable temperatures and largely
dry conditions. The only fly in the ointment may be a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms that develop across the interior Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes region Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon
as an inverted surface trough brings added low-level moisture and
weak surface convergence. In the least, this feature will support
diurnal cumulus clouds inland from the afternoon lake breezes while
the typical lakeshore locations will remain mostly sunny in the lake
shadows. 850mb temperatures near +14C each day will support high
temperatures in the upper 70s to right about the 80 degree mark.
Overnight lows both nights will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s,
with the milder overnight temperatures near the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Finally by Wednesday night through Thursday, a trough will approach
the region bringing moisture/warm air advection and muggier
conditions for Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms associated with
the wave will impact the region Thursday and Thursday night, with
the total expected coverage still up in the air, given model
differences on track and intensity of the wave. Cool air advection
behind the trough passage with weak shortwaves in the northwesterly
upslope flow will support a few scattered showers lingering
Friday/Saturday, although coverage will be waning each day. Overall
temperatures will remain near seasonal values through this stretch,
with perhaps some slightly cooler temperatures in the mid to upper
70s for the end of the week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS the main concern will lie in the first 6 hours as
still warm dewpoints, and falling temperatures behind a cold front
will bring some patches of fog to the region. The main impact will
likely be across the So. Tier, where localized IFR flight conditions
will be possible, including the KJHW terminal. Elsewhere cannot rule
out some MVFR flight conditions until just past sunrise with
temperatures near the dewpoints.

Later today, and through the remainder of the TAF cycle, nearing
surface high pressure will bring dry conditions with light winds.
Late tonight river valley fog with IFR flight conditions will be
likely across the So. Tier, including the KJHW terminal again.

Outlook...
Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in Southern Tier
valley fog each late night and early morning.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
With winds and waves diminishing as expected on Lake Erie...have
cancelled the Small Craft Advisory previously in effect from Ripley
to Buffalo.

On Lake Ontario...moderate northwesterlies will develop overnight
following the passage of a secondary cold front...leading to the
development of 2-4 foot waves along its eastern/southeastern shores.
These winds will gradually diminish on Sunday.

Sunday night through the first half of the new work week will then
feature light winds as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR



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