Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220614
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
214 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will slide offshore on Thursday...
though will remain in close enough proximity to keep dry weather
and mid-summerlike warmth intact across our region. A cold front
will then slide southward across the area late Thursday night
and Friday along with some showers...with Canadian high pressure
and much cooler air then building into the region for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Overnight...high pressure over eastern New York and western New
England will continue to slowly drift eastward...while maintaining
fair dry weather and mainly clear skies across our region. About
the only blemish on the forecast will come late tonight across the
Southern Tier...where nocturnal cooling/moistening of the boundary
layer could allow for the formation of a little patchy valley fog.
Low temps will range from around 50 in the coolest interior portions
of the Southern Tier and North Country...to around 60 right along
the lakeshores.

High pressure will slide further to the east Thursday, allowing
for a warm front to expand eastward from the Central Great Lakes
to the SLV. Clouds will increase through the day upon the warm
front, with clouds again largely across Lake Ontario and then
points eastward. Nearly all available model guidance keeps any
precipiation with this front to the north in Canada. South of
Lake Ontario, there will be few clouds, and with 850 hPa
temperatures warming to +16 to +17C we should have one more
summer- like day with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Latest models continuing to show a mid level trough passing through
Ontario as it pivots down around the Hudson Bay low Thursday night.
This should trigger the start of a wetter pattern over the Great
Lakes, with much of the activity expected to remain north of Lake
Ontario into the Saint Lawrence River valley. This activity will be
focused along a rather impressive baroclinic zone set up across the
upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario, where right entrance region
forcing of 100 knot plus jet streak will coincide with the nose of
the low-level jet. Will continue to maintain the better chances for
precipitation across the northern tier of the area Thursday night.

The baroclinic zone will slowly drop south through the area during
Friday into Friday night as upper energy pivots through
Ontario/Quebec and strong Canadian high pressure builds into
Ontario. The stabilizing influence of upper ridging building in from
the west should allow for less coverage of convection as the front
drops through Western New York, with a decrease in instability also
favoring showers over thunderstorms. Timing of the front looks
slightly faster in recent model runs, and have cooled high
temperatures Friday several degrees, especially across the North
Country. Expecting highs to range from the mid 60s closer to the
Saint Lawrence River to the mid and upper 70s near the Pennsylvania
border.

The canadian high builds into the region for Saturday and Saturday
night. Cold air aloft and moisture from the lakes contributing to
some cumulus and stratocumulus development, despite incoming
drier air for a mixed cloud and sun day, but skies should clear
off Saturday night. Temperatures will be notably cooler for the
first official weekend of fall, with highs Saturday in the 60s,
with temperatures likely remaining in the 50s over the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario. Overnight lows Saturday night
dipping into the 40s, with 30s likely and possible frost for
interior valleys of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure remains over New England Sunday and Monday with a
continuation of dry weather. Upper level low pressure over the
continental mid section and across the Canadian Maritimes will
sharpen the ridging between the troughs, and maintain subsidence and
generally dry weather over much of the region early Tuesday. A resurgence
of deeper moisture and a frontal zone moving towards our region
will bring the next chance of rain showers to Western New York on
Tuesday afternoon and to the rest of the forecast area late
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate back close
to average by early next week and through mid week, with highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure currently over eastern New York and western New England
will slowly drift eastward and eventually offshore during the day
Thursday...though will remain in close enough proximity to result
in continued widespread VFR conditions. The only possible exception
to this will be across the Southern Tier where some patchy IFR/MVFR
valley fog may redevelop late tonight and last into early Thursday
morning...though the coverage of this will likely be more limited
than previous nights given the drier nature of our existing airmass.

Thursday night...a slow moving cold front over Ontario province will
gradually edge southward into Lake Ontario and the North Country as
the night progresses...while spreading increasing amounts of VFR-level
cloud cover across our region. Overnight...some light showers will
become possible across the North Country as the front impinges upon
our region...though these will be unlikely to produce any reductions
to below VFR. Elsewhere...the balance of the area should remain dry.

Outlook...
Friday...A cold front will slide south across the region along with
scattered to numerous showers. Along and behind the front...a period
of MVFR cigs will be possible...otherwise VFR should prevail.
Saturday through Monday...VFR...except for some patchy overnight/
early morning valley fog across the Southern Tier.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over New England will drift offshore Thursday...while
keeping relatively light winds and minimal waves intact across the
Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will then cross the region late
Thursday night and Friday...with a stiffening northeasterly flow of
much cooler air in its wake possibly bringing a round of advisory-
worthy winds and waves between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR



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