Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS


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