844
FXUS63 KICT 031805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms likely tonight into early Saturday with some strong to
  severe storms possible tonight, especially across portions of central
  KS.

- Showers and a few storms return late Saturday night into early
  Sunday across southern and southeast KS.

- Increasing threat of severe weather on Monday evening and
  Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis continue to show a
robust mid/upper trough along the Canadian border over the Northern
Plains/Saskatchewan-Manitoba region moving northeastward while
another progressive shortwave trough was digging across the Northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a cold front was draped over the Middle
Mississippi Valley area and points southwestward into the Southern
Plains.

A stable post-frontal regime is firmly entrenched across the
forecast area today leading to quite weather conditions for the
daytime hours. Seasonably mild conditions are anticipated with
relatively light winds and highs in the 70s.

For tonight, the shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies
will sweep eastward driving another cold front southward across
the Central Plains. This front will provide a focus for showers
and thunderstorms tonight. Elevated CAPE and steep mid-lvl lapse
rates should support some strong to severe storms, especially
across our central KS counties this evening where damaging winds
and marginally severe hail will be possible. Uncertainty grows
further south and east as we move through the overnight hours
with waning elevated CAPE and a weakening LLJ progged.

Some remnant shower and storm activity could linger early in the day
on Saturday across southern KS but the focus is expected to shift
south and east of the area on Saturday afternoon as a stable post-
frontal regime materializes across the area. Seasonably cool
temperatures are anticipated with highs ranging from the mid 60s in
central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS. Another shortwave
trough lifting out of the Southern Rockies and over the Southern
Plains could bring an increasing chance for showers and storms late
Saturday night into Sunday morning but there remains some
uncertainty in how far north it will track with higher probabilities
remaining across far southern and southeast KS. The threat for
strong or severe storms is expected to remain south of the area with
this system but a further north track could result in better
moisture return and the potential for more robust deep moist
convection.

As we move into early next week, a vigorous mid/upper trough is
progged to move into the Rockies before emerging negatively tilted
over the Central Plains late on Monday. Conditions continue to look
favorable for a more widespread severe weather event on Monday
afternoon and Monday evening across the Central Plains. The EPS/GEFS
continue to advertise a vigorous upper jet nosing into Kansas late
Monday where high quality moisture is progged in the warm sector. It
is looking like a synoptically evident event unfolding where
significant severe weather may unfold including supercells with very
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Tue-Thu...Drier air will overspread the region in the wake of the
Pacific front on Tue with dry weather and mild conditions expected
with highs in the 80s. Heights/thickness are progged to lower
as we move into the middle of the week with a vigorous and slow
moving trough progged to camp over the Northern Plains. This is
expected to result in mostly dry weather with seasonable
temperatures in the 70s for most areas on Wed-Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Returning low-level moisture will support continued MVFR
ceilings through the afternoon, possibly scattering out and/or
lifting for a time this evening, before filling back in
overnight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will blast south
across the region later tonight through Saturday morning, with
gusty north winds and MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings in its wake.
A line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east-
southeast will likely accompany this frontal zone overnight into
early Saturday. Dime to quarter size hail and 50-60 mph winds
may accompany the strongest activity, especially across central
Kansas before 3 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...ADK