097
FXUS63 KICT 201735
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1235 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A rogue/isolated severe storm possible this afternoon-evening.

- A few severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon-evening.

- Additional chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Thursday
  through the weekend.

- Near to above average temperatures the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

THIS MORNING...Additional hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms are
possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas, within a
zone of continued strong 850-700mb warm advection and moisture
transport. Thinking these chances will gradually shift into eastern,
northeast, and northern Kansas as the morning progresses, and could
linger into the afternoon. Ample elevated instability in concert
with modest effective deep layer shear may support dime size hail
and 50 mph winds with the strongest activity.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...Widespread thunderstorm development is
unlikely this afternoon-evening, due to large scale height rises and
associated subsidence in wake of shortwave energy. However, a
remnant outflow boundary currently over Oklahoma is expected to mix
northward through the day. While convergence in the vicinity of this
old outflow probably won`t be particularly strong, it may prove
sufficient for a stray thunderstorm or two to develop. Should this
happen, strong buoyancy amidst long hodographs would support
supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a
tornado or two.

TONIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY...Increasing deep warm advection and moisture
transport ahead of another approaching upper wave should support
scattered to numerous thunderstorms across mainly Nebraska, although
some of this activity could trickle into northern Kansas north of I-
70.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...The potential for a few severe
thunderstorms exists southeast of the KS Turnpike, as the parent
western CONUS upper trough ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold
front/dryline combo sharpens across the region. The best forcing
looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep storms a
bit more isolated with southwestward extent. Strong instability
coupled with long hodographs will support the potential for severe
storms. However, deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to
the cold front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less
than ideal, which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting
supercells (which would then result in more storm interactions and
interference). This may cut into the severe potential, stay tuned.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...After a break Wednesday, model
consensus supports the potential for a continued off-and-on active
pattern thunderstorm-wise across the Heartland Thursday through the
weekend , as another longwave trough takes shape across the western
CONUS, ejecting various pieces of upper energy northeast onto Mid-
America. Details on timing, amplitude, and placement of synoptic
features continues to remain unclear at this time, which will have a
big impact on severe weather implications. Stay tuned for later
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A quasi-stationary front extends from west of KDDC-KHLC-KHJH at
17:30Z. This puts the forecast area in the warm sector and
mostly out of the way of any convection this afternoon and
evening. CU across the area will continue through this evening
until the diurnal heating abates. There will be occasional CIGS
of BKN025 until then. Winds will remain southerly with some
gusts to 25 kts until sundown. The wind will re-establish itself
again Tuesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday evening
across areas along and east of the Kansas Turnpike, as well as
northwest Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...KRC