Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 221731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHTM WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK


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