Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 242037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

ANOTHER QUIET AND COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. THE WRAP AROUND STRATUS
DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA MAY CLIP INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND HAS BECOME
MORE CELLULAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND ANYTHING THAT MAY REACH THE
NORTHEAST WILL NOT LAST LONG AS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BREEZY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GENERALLY BE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH IOWA REMAINING
ON BACKSIDE OF LARGE TROF ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL POSITION THE SURFACE RIDGE NEAR IOWA IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THERMAL TROF
HOLDING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATION WILL BEGIN BY LATER
WEDNESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION INCREASING AS THE RIDGE SLIPS TO THE
EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE TOPPING RIDGE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
DROPPING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT WITH NAM APPEARING MUCH
TOO FAR NORTH WITH GFS AND EURO FARTHER SOUTH. FLOW IS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS BY THIS TIME AND GFS AND EURO BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH
PLACEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL APPEARS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IOWA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DECENT FORCING PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...ANY POPS THEREAFTER BECOME MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS GIVEN THE INCREASING DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT FOR RAINFALL SHOULD DECREASE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS BOTH PULL SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE STATE.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VFR STRATUS DECK
HAS BEEN ROTATING SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND MAY REACH
KMCW AND KALO. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON


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