Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 282349
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL OVR SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND NE.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HVY
RN.  GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 03Z THEN FG AFT 06Z.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z FROM W TO E AND MOST OF THE PRECIP...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST WILL END BY 06Z.  SFC FLOW OVR SE IA WILL BE SRLY
AT 15-25KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM SFC WND WILL BECOME ERLY THEN NRLY AT
5-10KTS AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB


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