Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 282052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONCERN FOR PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF 700MB WARM NOSE...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
CONCERN WILL BE IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENCE AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADIC THREAT.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO AREA.
HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED HIGH RES MODEL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH
PWAT VALUES VERY NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH. GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAINFALL AND CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ISSUED THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH EXPECT EARLY
CANCELLATION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12Z...SHAPES UP TO BE A VERY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
IN WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW LOW 90S WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE BEST
MIXING...TO ABOVE 850MB...BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLY COOL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURN TO THE
REGION THANKS TO A COUPLE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. GFS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD LOW END
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
WHICH ONLY HINTS AT THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DIGRESS FURTHER BEYOND
MONDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS TO THE STATUS QUO
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING TSRA MAY AFFECT KFOD AND KDSM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA IN
LATER AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z TO SITES. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA. TSRA
AT SITES MAY CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL INCREASE BEYOND 12Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...AWB


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