Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 112001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
301 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Confidence: High

Few concerns next 24 hours. High pressure builds into the region
tonight with clear conditions expected. There may be some patchy
fog prior to sunrise over the north...otherwise light winds will
prevail. Models differ slightly on arrival of any precipitation
Saturday but are trending toward nothing prior to 00z and most
likely dry conditions will hold off until after 06z trending east
by 12z Sunday. After a pleasant overnight tonight...Saturday will
remain pleasant through the day and night as well.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Friday/
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night:

Confidence: Medium

Water vapor imagery shows next upstream wave over Montana which will
swing east southeast entering western Iowa by 12z Sunday. Models in
general agreement with timing and overall weakening as it crosses
the region. Once again the better forcing remains over northern
areas with showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm expected.
Eventually the activity will lessen into the overnight hours Sunday
night into Monday. Highs Sunday will remain in the 70s to lower 80s
with the cloud shield north contributing to about 10 degrees cooler
temperatures by afternoon.  Conditions will then remain dry through
Tuesday night as another weak ridge of high pressure drifts over the
region.  Highs Tuesday will be warmer as south winds increase during
the day...lower to mid 80s overall.

Wednesday through Friday

Confidence:  Medium

More energy will be advancing east during the period with another
chance of showers/thunderstorms for Wednesday through Thursday.
Overall heights will be warming for the remainder of the extended
resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s in the south and in the
lower 80s in the north. There remains some uncertainty in Friday`s
precipitation forecast. The Euro shows increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms while the GFS is currently dry. The
forecast introduces some precipitation though that might change
over time. Lows during the period will also be milder with 60s
expected for the area.


.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Few concerns this period. Mainly VFR conditions with potential
for early am fog at KFOD. Otherwise gradual increase in mid to
high level clouds expected in advance of next upstream wave
moving east by late Sunday. Winds to remain light through the
period with the exception of some mixing yet this afternoon at
KMCW. /rev




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