Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 041750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THAT MOVES THROUGH SITES WILL
START TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO STILL
ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
IF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THOSE
CHANCES MORE TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS



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