000
FXUS63 KDMX 180448 AAB
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATED FOR 18/06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CWA ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD.
ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT TO TAPER OFF AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LIMITED SHEAR WITH
STORMS...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH A STORM MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...STORMS HAVE BEEN
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...AND MAY SEE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE NORTH WERE SOILS ARE SATURATED...IF STORMS TRAIN OR MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. WILL NOT PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH 06Z AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN ARE
TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER. HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER WITH CLOUD
COVER. SOME STRONGER WAA BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT...AND MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THERE...HOWEVER
HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE THERE.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN
FAIRLY TRANQUIL HOWEVER WITH WARM AND HUMID WEATHER AS IA IS
INFLUENCED BY THE WARM SECTOR. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SW-
NE INTO SAT NIGHT HOWEVER INCREASING OUR CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION.,.WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME FORM OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EARLY MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION QUITE ELEVATED
INITIALLY...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN MOISTENING TOWARD
DAYBREAK. MORE FAVORABLE CAPE/CIN PARCELS LOWER IN SOUNDINGS
LEADING TO CONVECTION POTENTIALLY BEING ROOTED LOWER INTO SUNDAY.
ESTIMATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT...BUT WOULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW END SEVERE THREAT CONSIDERING MUCAPES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AT TIMES.

THIS LEADS INTO LATER SUNDAY WHERE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT SURFACE
BASED EVENT COMING TOGETHER STILL EXIST. THETA-E ADVECTION STILL
LINGERS INTO IA BY MIDDAY LEADING TO QUESTIONS RAISED YESTERDAY
REGARDING RECOVERY TIME BETWEEN ELEVATED CONVECTION AND PEAK HEATING
SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES AS WELL...ON BOTH THE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF FAVOR A SURFACE LOW
BEING CENTERED OVER ERN NE...WHILE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS LOWER PRESSURE
FROM NE INTO MN ALONG INVERTED TROUGH. NAM ALSO SHOW FRONT
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ACROSS MO. THIS OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL AFFECT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY AND WHERE LOCALIZED 0-1KM SHEAR AND TORNADO
THREAT IS ENHANCED. EVEN WITH THESE QUESTIONS IT STILL APPEARS
THAT CURRENT SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS FAVORED AREA IN PLACE WHICH IS
ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL FOR BETTER DEEP
SHEAR. LOOKED AT SLU CIPS 12Z ANALOGS TO SEE IF THEY OFFERED ANY
INSIGHT...BUT 60HR FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AS A BASELINE WHICH
MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH SURFACE FEATURES. 00Z GFS ANALOGS MAY BE
TOO FAR NORTH AS WELL...AS GFS HAS NOW TRENDED CLOSER TO PREVIOUS
ERN NE ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

SITUATION CHANGES SOMEWHAT MONDAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT AS WELL. SOUNDINGS APPEAR WELL MIXED WITH
LITTLE CINH HOWEVER SO STILL EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
DIURNALLY. DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIAL MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DUE TO
STRONGER MIXED LAYER WINDS AND BETTER DCAPES AS LOW LAYERS DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT. SYSTEM THEN OCCLUDES INTO TUE AND IS IN NO HURRY TO
DEPART. MID/LATE MAY SOLAR HEATING NEAR THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY BASED CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST TO
SOME EXTENT UNTIL THU WHEN SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP AND EXITS.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD WILL MOISTEN UP THE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXISTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.  MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A HUGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
THE WEST WILL KEEP VFR CIGS OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND COULD KEEP FOG
LIMITED TO EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.  AFTER 19/00Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
19/06Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB