Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 251744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERNIGHT SYSTEM IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE STATE. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG
IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
SFC BOUNDARY ALREADY APPROACHING FAR NORTHWEST IOWA WITH
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING QUICKLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF WYOMING
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ARRIVING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. DRY AIR FROM SUBSIDENCE REGION OF THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL
EXIST MAINLY INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE COOLED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. COLD
ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO FALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENDED WILL GENERALLY BE MARKED BY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH END
OF WEEK...WITH A WARM UP COMING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
WELL...PRIMARILY IN THE WEST. BEHIND RETREATING LOW PRESSURES
SYSTEM TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS AREA AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH BRINGING MUCH
COOLER...AND BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. COLDEST DAYS WILL BE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF SHARPLY AT
NIGHT. WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GOING. HOWEVER...CAA WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY BE TOO WARM. WAVE DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT POPS OUT FOR NOW
WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PULLS EAST WAVE WILL PUSH EAST AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING IN THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR NOTED IN
SOUNDINGS NEAR SURFACE...AND HAVE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES AND
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE KEPT GENERALLY
RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW.

AS HIGH PUSHES EAST WAA WILL RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY AS RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DROPPING A BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA SUNDAY. GIVEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AHEAD OF BOUNDARY MAY BE TOO COOL FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
SYSTEM. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS
AVAILABLE...AND HAVE KEPT POPS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTH
WITH BEST MOISTURE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WILL DETERMINE
PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH GENERAL RAIN OR SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX
EXPECTED ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THEN FOR END OF PERIOD WITH
STRONG WAA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD
BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE STATE. THE CAA RELAXES BY 00Z AND LOOKS TO
ALLOW THE STRATUS TO ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR VFR CIGS TONIGHT.
PLUS THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT 925MB MOVING INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. MIXING INCREASES LATE THE TAF PERIOD THURSDAY AND
INTRODUCED GUSTY WINDS PAST 15Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



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