Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 262342
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN NEBRASKA INTO SRN IL WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS MOVES INTO IA
BY 12Z. THETA-E ADVECTION HAS PUSHED TO HE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. MOISTURE AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
SPREAD NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. INTRODUCED
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING OVER NIGHT AND DEW POINTS TO REACH TEMPS EVENTUALLY.
DENSE FOG IS NOT LIKELY WITH ENOUGH MIXING IN PLACE...BUT ENOUGH
TO ADD A MENTION.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MID-LATITUDE TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. WILL AFFECT THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE INTO THE NWRN CWA
BY 12Z MONDAY...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SFC
WARM FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND THE COLUMNAR MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
INVOF THE BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA GOING
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
FOG OUTSIDE ANY AREAS OF SHRA. BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL OCCUR
INVOF THE SFC BOUNDARY AS WELL AS BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE POLAR JET. ISOLD TSRA IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTN
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 200-300 J/KG.

BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM UPON ITS EXIT...BUT
HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE NEXT IMPULSE DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA. ECMWF IS DEEPER
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FCST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PCPN HAS
DECREASED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER VS YESTERDAY.

HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW IN WAA
REGIME ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION-WISE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE STATE. WILL SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CEILINGS OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CEILING HEIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BUT MOST INDICATION VIA SOUNDINGS AND RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST VFR
CEILINGS PERSISTING. SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH STATE ON MONDAY BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAINFALL QUITE ISOLATED AND HAVE
FOREGONE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...COGIL



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