Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 052213
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
413 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/
Issued at 353 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Not much change to the forecast for tonight and Tuesday. Precip/virga
across the Northwest is allowing stronger winds aloft to mix down
producing strong wind gusts in the Northwest. These winds will
continue into the evening. An upper low will continue to trek
across the Northern Plains dragging a cold front across the
forecast area. Moisture will deepen with time and there is a
period of stronger forcing which will mainly affect the Northern
half of the CWA. Precip will start as light rain/sprinkles then
switch over to snow late evening overnight as the front pushes
East. We are not looking for much in the way of precip or snowfall
with the system. Post frontal on Tuesday...we will be in fairly
strong cold advection and winds will be quite brisk during the
day. Temps will be some 15 to 20 degrees colder than today.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/
Issued at 353 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Cold advection will continue through Thursday as a deep trough
and Canadian high pressure pushes across the Rockies into the
Central Plains. Both the Euro and GFS suggest precip near the base
of the trough. The GFS has been dry for Iowa while the Euro has
been pushing precip further South with each successive run.
Precip this last run is also now South of Iowa and with that I
have removed measurable precip from the forecast but did mention
flurries across the North associated with the second push of cold
air. We will remain cold through Friday with highs in the teens
and 20`s and lows around zero to 10 above.

Warm advection returns Friday night into Saturday night ahead of
the next low and this will bring the next chance for snow to the
region. Despite the warm advection...temps will still be cold
enough for snow. There will likely be some locations receiving
measurable snow but it is too far out to determine amounts and
locations.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

MVFR fog over the Eastern TAF locations will become VFR conditions
by 20Z.  South winds increasing to 15g28kts especially West this
afternoon and will diminish after 23Z but will be around 10kts. A
cold front will pass through TAF locations overnight into Wednesday
morning.  Isold to sct rain/snow showers will accompany the front
across Northern locations but MVFR cigs should be a little more
widespread...at least for a period tonight between 08Z and 13Z.
Strong NW wind expected aft 14Z Tuesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...FAB


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