Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 181041
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST OF
IA TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

IOWA WILL BE PINCHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE ENTERING FROM THE
WEST AND THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST.  WE WILL STILL BE IN COLD
ADVECTION TODAY SO TEMPS WILL BE COOL.  NOT LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO BE
OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.  WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG LIKE YESTERDAY...WE WILL
STILL SEE 10-20MPH WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON TEMPS AS WELL ALTHOUGH JUST WHAT THE
CLOUDS WILL DO IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR SURE.  YESTERDAY WAS A BIT OF
AN EDUCATION WITH STRATUS COMING DOWN ALL NIGHT LONG THEN THE SUN
COMES UP AND MIXING IS BETTER THEN ANTICIPATED PLUS THE QUALITY OF
THE MOISTURE WASN`T THERE...RESULTING IN FAR LESS CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHS THAT WERE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN FORECAST. SOUNDINGS
YESTERDAY WERE SHOWING POCKETS OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT BEST
WITH A BREAK IN CEILINGS AND CEILING HEIGHTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

SIMILARLY...DURING THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS WAS EVIDENT ALL THE WAY
NORTH THROUGH MINNESOTA BUT AS IT ENTERED IOWA...HUGE HOLES
DEVELOPED AND IOWA HAD ONLY PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS VS WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS LOOK SIMILAR TODAY AND WITH STRATUS ALREADY
BREAKING UP...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER.  BY 17-18Z SKIES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
HAVING MORE SUNSHINE TODAY FOR HIGHS THAT WILL ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS SWING TO THE
SOUTH...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE STATE. TEMPS WILL
RISE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY VS SATURDAY FOR HIGHS. MILD
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TOUGH SOME COOLING WILL FOLLOW
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT IT WILL BE VERY MINOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MID WEEK HAS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AD DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SCATTERED
COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN...THE COOLING WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.,
KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR AT BAY. THUS...MILD PACIFIC AIR WILL RULE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD HAS CONTINUED TO CREEP SOUTHWARD AS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER CIG HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN MORE VARIABLE THAN
ANTICIPATED RANGING ANYWHERE FROM FL017 TO FL048. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A LARGE HOLE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN IOWA IN WHICH SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLEAR BEFORE
FILLING IN AGAIN FURTHER NORTH. ALL IN ALL STILL EXPECT BKN-OVC
MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS FINALLY
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT...HOWEVER JUDGING FROM RECENT AND UPSTREAM
OBS...PERIODS OF MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
8 HOURS BUT DIFFICULTY OF PREDICTING EXACT TIMING AND LIMITED
OVERALL EXTENT DICTATE MOSTLY VFR CIGS ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS
ATTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE


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