Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222315
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 351 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

Mid to upper level system is currently moving out of the area this
afternoon, which will bring mid/upper subsidence and dwindling cloud
cover as we go into tonight. Surface ridging also moving into the
area, which will cause the winds to come more from the north or
northwest through the day on Sunday. With the dry air moving in, as
well as the large scale subsidence clouds will gradually erode and
skies will clear for the remainder of the weekend. As the surface
high approaches the gradient will weaken and winds will generally
dissipate to around 5 to 10 mph. The surface ridge moves east of the
area by Monday and surface return flow will commence, which will
bring warmer and moister air into the area. This will reload the
area for the next round(s) of rain for later next week and into the
weekend.

An active pattern emerges by the middle part of next week as a
series of troughs form over the western CONUS, bringing southwest
flow aloft and several pulses of energy into the Central Plains and
Mid Missouri River Valley. While it`s still too soon to try to
pinpoint any particular hazards with this activity it does appear
that there will be several rounds of thunderstorms, which could
bring the potential for some severe weather as well as localized
flooding. Again, details will emerge as we approach that time
period, but in the 5-7 day time frame that we are in right now
there is still much model uncertainty as to how that time period
will play out.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

VFR conditions through the period. Scattered cirrus will eventually
clear and breezy northeasterly winds will relax around sunset and
become light and variable as surface high pressure settles into the
area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Blair



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