Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 291114

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
514 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Issued at 338 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

The forecast continues to be tricky in the short term as
temperatures continue to hover right around the freezing mark early
this morning. The freezing line runs from Unionville to Albany to
Falls City. Pacific moisture continues to stream into the region
with elongated vorticity the main player for producing light
precipitation across the area. South of the freezing line, locations
are reporting light rain or drizzle. North of the freezing line
light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is being reported. However,
temperatures have been either holding steady or rising slightly
overnight. This should continue through the morning hours and allow
the entire area to transition over to rain through the day. However,
it will remain a cold rain as highs will range from the mid 30s to
near 40.

The Rex block pattern over the Central Rockies that has helped keep
the area unsettled the past few days will continue to remain in
place today into tonight. This will continue the Pacific moisture
plume into the area and thusly continue the precipitation chances
across the area as well. Tonight, temperatures will continue to be
the main forecast concern, as that will be the deciding factor on
whether we get rain or freezing rain. The diurnal change in
temperatures (much like the past few days) will be minimal so
temperatures will range from 32 to 38 tonight. There may be a brief
period of ice accumulation across the extreme northern CWA however,
at this time it appears any accumulation would be below advisory
thresholds. On Monday, we finally see some movement in the upper
level flow as the upper low across the Central Rockies finally
shifts out into the northern and central Plains. This will allow a
surface low to develop across eastern Kansas on the day Monday. In
previous model runs this low was much further south and east keeping
the bulk of the CWA on the cold side of the low. However, recent
model iterations develop the low in eastern Kansas and lift it
northinto eastern Nebraska. This will allow winds across the area to
pick up from the southwest and conditions to warm into upper 30s to
mid 40s. Rain will again develop out ahead of this low and move
through the area on Monday as a cold front pushes through the CWA.
Although, a sharp cold air intrusion will not occur behind the front
temperatures are still expected to dip into the upper 20s to lower
30s Monday night and consequently, we could see a few flakes flying
across the area Monday night. Moisture at this time however, will be
minimal so accumulations are not expected with the exception of the
extreme northwestern CWA where there could be a dusting.

Tuesday the upper level system becomes nearly stacked as it moves
into the Upper Midwest. This will keep conditions cloudy across the
northern CWA. But, again the lack of cold air advection behind the
front (winds will be out of the west) will allow temperatures to
rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The extended forecast looks to bring a dry period with a warming
trend. Northwest flow aloft will continue to keep conditions cool on
Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will build into the area for Wednesday night and Thursday.
This will occur as the northwesterly flow aloft relaxes and
temperatures on Thursday will rise into the 40s to near 50. By
Friday an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over the region
as warm air begins to advect into the area. Expect highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s on Friday with little change on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

IFR cigs with lgt rain will be the rule thru today (altho there is a
chc for a pd of -fzra at MCI btn 12Z-14Z) with vbsys reduced to 5SM-
6SM. Tonight rain should come to an end with just lgt drizzle in its
wake however cigs will drop into the LIFR cat with fog becmg more
dense reducing vsbys to 2SM-4SM. Winds thru the pd will veer from the
NNE to the ENE btn 5-10kts.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for

MO...Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for



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