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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260403
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1103 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 143 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

As of early this afternoon, mid-level clouds were beginning to
filter into the forecast area. Primary change through the next 6-12
hours is the addition of rain chances. Upstream radar returns
continue to show an expansion of shower activity across north
central into northeast Kansas. This area is in a favored zone of
frontogenesis and weak isentropic ascent. Most model guidance brings
this activity into east central Kansas into west central Missouri
later this afternoon into the evening hours, and this appears to be
a fairly reasonable region to see focused shower activity. Kansas
City and points south and west will see the most probable area of
measuring precipitation during this period. This activity should
eventually push south of the CWA overnight, potentially leaving the
area rain-free.

Models begin to diverge on Monday`s weather as the overall focus
remains fairly subtle. The general signal for the next round for
showers and isolated thunderstorms as weak instability increases
appear to be tied to the approach of an embedded shortwave trough
approaching northern Missouri tomorrow afternoon, well-depicted at
the H5 layer vorticity, and a weak wind shift sagging through
southern Iowa. Convection is anticipated to develop in the proximity
of these features to the north of the forecast area, potentially
during the morning hours, with some intensification/expansion during
the afternoon hours into Missouri. Convection should dissipate/shift
south of the area during the evening hours Monday.

The daylight hours of Tuesday are expected to be dry as weak upper
ridging moves back into the region. This dry period should be short-
lived as a more active pattern evolves across the central CONUS. A
parade of stronger shortwave troughs within near zonal westerly flow
will move across the Central Plains in advance of an evolving upper
trough Tuesday night through Friday. With increasing upper ascent
and a return of deeper moisture, conditions will become more
conducive for thunderstorm chances. There remains modest model
spread regarding timing of the waves, but general theme will be to
anticipate chances for thunderstorms each period Wednesday into
Friday. As this time, a cold front is projected to push through the
forecast area late Friday night with surface high pressure building
into the mid-Missouri Valley. This would spell a dry weekend with
temperatures near-normal levels.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT SUN JUN 25 2017

Weak wave over far northern Nebraska is already kicking off some
showers and thunderstorms across that area, and this activity will
likely make it into eastern KS and western MO by early afternoon.
Activity will be scattered in nature with about 30 to 40 percent
coverage, with most activity dying down by early evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Hawblitzel