


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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194 FXUS63 KEAX 111735 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...18z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Hot and humid conditions today with highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the around 100. * Severe storms possible this afternoon into this evening. - Damaging winds and hail are the main hazards, though there is low potential for a tornado. Locally heavy rain will also be a concern. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 A severe MCS is moving along I-80 early this morning (as of 07-08Z). This system will continue to track east, staying north of northern MO. Can`t rule out that its gust front will move south into the northern MO and help trigger additional showers and storms this morning, particularly with strong 925-850mb moisture transport nosing into northern MO this morning. Highs today look hot and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it will be very humid as well, leading to heat index values near 100. Highs in the low to mid 90s look likely, especially south of Highway 36. We actually could be in the low 90s by 18z. The one caveat to this is the potential for some high-level clouds, likely debris from Central to Southern High Plains convection from Thursday, to move overhead this afternoon, possibly inhibiting peak insolation and leading to slightly cooler temperatures. This could then inhibit convection, to some extent, during the afternoon, similar to what the GFS shows. Regarding convection later today, a weak boundary is forecast to move southward as a shortwave trough tracks eastward across Nebraska and Iowa through the day. Models show 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with little convective inhibition left ahead of the front. Forecast hodographs show modest curvature, which may support some supercell structures with a low-end tornado risk. But given very steep lapse rates in the lowest 1.5km and inverted-V look to the sounding, think damaging winds will be the primary hazard. The more robust storms will also support large hail, though with weak 0-6km shear, storms will likely lack the organization needed for more widespread hail potential. As storms grow upscale into one or more clusters, the threat of damaging winds will takeover. Uncertainty remains in the timing of the front but feel confident storms will develop near peak heating along the front, which will likely be in the 20-23Z time frame from east central KS into northeastern MO. The potential for strong to severe storms on Saturday will be largely dependent on how the storms evolve this afternoon into the overnight. More robust convection that leads to a strong cold pool will tend to push an outflow boundary further south, leading to a more stable air mass over the region. Conversely, if storms aren`t as robust, it could lead to another round of storms in our southern tier of counties Saturday afternoon. The current forecast shows chance PoPs for the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, roughly east of I-35. The next good chance for widespread showers and storms looks like Monday night into early Tuesday. Models show a weak vorticity maxima drifting into the area Monday/ Monday night. A slug of 2"+ precipitable water values will accompany this wave. With a strong 925-850mb moisture transport nosing into the area, precipitation chances look good at this point, for a day 5 forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Initially breezy but VFR TAFs will give way to impactful conditions later this afternoon/evening. By around 21z, anticipation for thunderstorm activity to begin to initiate around the TAF sites, with greatest confidence around the trio of KC Metro sites KMCI/KMKC/KIXD. To account for initially scattered nature and a bit of uncertainty in progression/timing, do have TEMPOs for those sites from 21z to 00z. KSTJ may not see any substantial activity, but initial storms may go up in the vicinity, so have opted for PROB30 there. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds up through that time frame, to mid 20s kts. Winds begin to shift around/after 00z as a cold front passes, turning winds to the NW, but generally on the lighter side 10kts or less. At this point, stratus deck to eventually prevail post frontal, likely in the MVFR range, and may linger remainder of period for dissipation. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...Curtis