194
FXUS63 KEAX 111735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hot and humid conditions today with highs in the mid 90s and heat
  indices in the around 100.

* Severe storms possible this afternoon into this evening.
  - Damaging winds and hail are the main hazards, though there
    is low potential for a tornado. Locally heavy rain will also
    be a concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A severe MCS is moving along I-80 early this morning (as of
07-08Z). This system will continue to track east, staying north
of northern MO. Can`t rule out that its gust front will move
south into the northern MO and help trigger additional showers
and storms this morning, particularly with strong 925-850mb
moisture transport nosing into northern MO this morning.

Highs today look hot and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it will be
very humid as well, leading to heat index values near 100. Highs in
the low to mid 90s look likely, especially south of Highway 36. We
actually could be in the low 90s by 18z. The one caveat to this
is the potential for some high-level clouds, likely debris from
Central to Southern High Plains convection from Thursday, to
move overhead this afternoon, possibly inhibiting peak
insolation and leading to slightly cooler temperatures. This
could then inhibit convection, to some extent, during the
afternoon, similar to what the GFS shows.

Regarding convection later today, a weak boundary is forecast to
move southward as a shortwave trough tracks eastward across Nebraska
and Iowa through the day. Models show 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE with
little convective inhibition left ahead of the front. Forecast
hodographs show modest curvature, which may support some supercell
structures with a low-end tornado risk. But given very steep
lapse rates in the lowest 1.5km and inverted-V look to the
sounding, think damaging winds will be the primary hazard. The
more robust storms will also support large hail, though with
weak 0-6km shear, storms will likely lack the organization
needed for more widespread hail potential. As storms grow
upscale into one or more clusters, the threat of damaging winds
will takeover. Uncertainty remains in the timing of the front
but feel confident storms will develop near peak heating along
the front, which will likely be in the 20-23Z time frame from
east central KS into northeastern MO.

The potential for strong to severe storms on Saturday will be
largely dependent on how the storms evolve this afternoon into the
overnight. More robust convection that leads to a strong cold pool
will tend to push an outflow boundary further south, leading to a
more stable air mass over the region. Conversely, if storms aren`t
as robust, it could lead to another round of storms in our southern
tier of counties Saturday afternoon. The current forecast shows
chance PoPs for the southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area,
roughly east of I-35. The next good chance for widespread showers
and storms looks like Monday night into early Tuesday. Models show a
weak vorticity maxima drifting into the area Monday/ Monday night. A
slug of 2"+ precipitable water values will accompany this wave. With
a strong 925-850mb moisture transport nosing into the area,
precipitation chances look good at this point, for a day 5
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Initially breezy but VFR TAFs will give way to impactful
conditions later this afternoon/evening. By around 21z,
anticipation for thunderstorm activity to begin to initiate
around the TAF sites, with greatest confidence around the trio
of KC Metro sites KMCI/KMKC/KIXD. To account for initially
scattered nature and a bit of uncertainty in progression/timing,
do have TEMPOs for those sites from 21z to 00z. KSTJ may not see
any substantial activity, but initial storms may go up in the
vicinity, so have opted for PROB30 there. Otherwise, gusty
southerly winds up through that time frame, to mid 20s kts.
Winds begin to shift around/after 00z as a cold front passes,
turning winds to the NW, but generally on the lighter side 10kts
or less. At this point, stratus deck to eventually prevail post
frontal, likely in the MVFR range, and may linger remainder of
period for dissipation.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Curtis