Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CST THU FEB 22 2018

The next round of precipitation is moving into eastern KS and
western MO currently. This area seems to be moving northeast along
the freezing line that has steadily but painfully slowly moved
north. This line will likely split the metro area from southwest
to northeast as the rain moves through. But with temperatures near
freezing, and staying steady through the late evening, there
should be minimal impact to roads. Light glazing is possible on
elevated surfaces. Northwestern and northern MO and extreme
northeastern KS though, where temperatures will likely remain
below freezing, may see some additional light glazing this evening
with this activity. Most of this would likely be on elevated
surfaces and perhaps secondary/neighborhood roads that may not be
as treated as the main roads and highways. All the precipitation
should move out of the area overnight with temperatures tomorrow
reaching the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Like a broken record, that takes us to our next potential wintry
event, Friday night into Saturday morning. With the main upper level
trough still to the west, another shortwave trough will lift
northeastward toward the area. With overnight lows falling into
the mid 20s to lower 30s north of the Missouri river, and another
round of moisture streaming northward with the approaching
shortwave, there could be a period of a wintry mix across the
northern half of the forecast area. Forecast soundings initially
have cloud ice present but then erodes that ice as the lead wave
passes by. There is also a shallow warm nose. All this would
support the notion of a mixed bag of precipitation which would
include freezing rain, sleet, and snow before temperatures warm
enough early in the day and the passing of the wave winds down
the wintry weather.

The main upper shortwave will move through the area later in the day
Saturday. There is still some uncertainty about the orientation of
this wave. The GFS is showing a negative tilt, enhancing the
dynamics and pulling warmer and more moisture rich air northward.
The NAM is neutral to negatively tilted and thus not as strong with
the warm/moist advection. The ECMWF is similar to the GFS but not
as strong on the warm/moist advection northward into the area.
Regardless, all these models develop the stronger convection east
of the area, affecting eastern/southeastern MO and points east of
that.

In the wake of the Saturday system, it looks like we`ll see
generally warmer weather, at least compared to the last week, for
the remainder of the forecast. And, for the most part, the forecast
is dry with the next chance of precipitation arriving Wednesday into
the Thursday. With temperatures above freezing for most of the area,
this looks to be mainly rain. There may be periods of a wintry mix
in northern MO depending on the timing of the precipitation and the
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST THU FEB 22 2018

Poor aviation conditions continue with reduced visibility and IFR
or lower ceilings. Freezing drizzle may become freezing rain as
an area of stronger echoes in eastern KS move over the area in the
next one to three hours. Temperatures should warm above freezing
at the KC area terminals by this afternoon, but STJ will be later,
and potentially remain below freezing through the evening when a
close to normal diurnal trend cools temperatures a bit. Outside of
the wintry precipitation, IFR ceilings are expected to persist
through the entire forecast.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ025-
     102.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ103-
     104.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ001>006-011>015-020.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ021-
     022-028-029.

&&

$$

Update...CDB
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB


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