Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 240506
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1206 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.Update...
Issued at 1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Been watching two areas...OMA area and north central KS
supercell...for the past few hours. The OMA activity has congealed
and now forming an expanding cold pool which is now pushing
southeast. The north central KS supercell has morphed into an
accelerating bow echo. Both features will be enhanced and maintained
by an increasing ssw low level jet. All that said have adjusted the
PoPs over northwest/west central MO and adjacent eastern KS to
account for these developments/expectations.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 304 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

So far, other than some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms that
popped up throughout the first portion of the day, the weather has
thus far been relatively quiet. However, there is continued
anticipation of convection amping up as the night progresses.
Currently looking at the potential for two main rounds of storms this
evening into the overnight hours. The first would be this afternoon
into the evening hours, thanks to the combination of some
destabilization plus an increasing LLJ, although lapse rates have
been paltry. This LLJ will continue to intensify as the night
continues, opening up the door for round two of storms to occur
around midnight through as late as the pre-dawn hours. Of particular
note, all of the models seem to be struggling resolving what`s going
on and what`s to occur so haven`t been able to hone in on one
particular model. As for the primary threats, wind would be at the
top of the list should storms go severe, although hail and a brief
spin-up aren`t out of the question.

Another severe weather threat exists for late tomorrow as a frontal
boundary approaches from the north and west. Increasing shear values
with a potentially even more unstable airmass ahead of the front
yields a bit more of a concern for the severe potential tomorrow. The
limiting factor would be the timing as model runs have been slowing
down the front`s progression. Primary hazard looks to again be gusty
to perhaps damaging winds but there is the added threat of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall creating a localized flood threat,
particularly if storms train over the same areas and where flash
flood guidance might be lower.

For the remainder of the forecast period, couldn`t feasibly remove
PoPs from any period as the region remains locked in an unsettled
pattern. The aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across
central to southern MO Thursday before washing out on Friday. With
ample moisture flowing in under southerly to southwesterly flow into
the weekend and the forecast area sitting on the periphery of ridging
to the east, the door is left open for multiple days of convection
chances for the forecast area, although not everyone will of course
see rain everyday. Temperatures generally speaking will remain near
or slightly below normal for this time of year, especially under any
sort of cloud cover that may limit daytime heating. Wednesday looks
to be the warmest day of week for the southern two-thirds of the
forecast area with these locations sitting within the warm sector
ahead of the front.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will move across northern MO overnight with
the southern edge of the activity possibly reaching down to the MO
River. VFR conditions with gusty southerly winds will prevail south
of this activity while MVFR ceilings likely under the stronger
storms. The convection should move into far northeast and east
central MO by mid Wednesday morning. The rest of the morning should
be dry with VFR conditions.

While isolated convection is possible just about anywhere during the
early/mid afternoon hours thunderstorms should start to bubble late
afternoon/early evening as a cold front slides southeast through
northwest MO. The evening convective activity will likely track
repeatedly over the same region as the front stalls. West central
MO/east central KS into northeast MO looks like the most favored
region. MVFR ceilings/visibilities with occasional IFR ceilings are
likely.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ
Discussion...lg
Aviation...MJ



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