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000
FXUS63 KEAX 081726
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1126 AM CST Sat Mar 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

Satellite imagery from this morning shows a moderately amplified
pattern across the United States with a notable vorticity max
sinking south through the Four Corners region towards Mexico. This
will resulted in a a shear axis developing across the Central Plains
as the circulation detaches from the northern stream. This shear
axis in turn will interact with the elevated baroclinic zone being
shoved south by the surface high oozing south through the Plains
early this morning, thus resulting in a persistent chance at some
light precipitation through the morning hours. Radar imagery from
eastern Nebraska backs up this idea as band of light snow has
developed within the frontogenetic forcing expected to push south with
the surface high. However, the elevated boundary is now expected to
settle a little farther south today, thus limiting the northward
extent of the precipitation. Otherwise, pinning down precipitation
type will be a bit difficult today as thermal profiles continue to
wander back and forth across the freezing line through the day.
Carried a mix of precipitation types for the morning hours, though
light accumulations ranging from a heavy dusting to a couple tenths
of the inch of snow or sleet will be possible this morning. For the
afternoon hours, dispute surface temperatures warming above freezing
have kept a mix of wintry precipitation going as wet bulbing effects
and strong vertical forcing might be able to force some frozen
precipitation types to the ground. Potential accumulations are still
expected to be rather light as the main focus for the afternoon
hours will be across southeast Kansas and southern Missouri, though
a few hundredths to a tenth of a inch of snow/sleet/rain could
occur.

After today`s attempt at wintry weather Spring will makes its
presents felt again quickly as temperatures rebound. The moderately
amplified flow across the nation will flatten out late in the
weekend, effectively keeping all that cold arctic air bottled up at
higher latitudes through the coming work week. Only issue to watch
for at this time appears to be another shearing trough, which will
settle through the Plains States Tuesday night. Precipitation
chances look iffy at this time as shearing, positively tilled,
troughs are not the best precipitation generators for us. Besides
today, temperatures this Wednesday look to be the coolest of the
week as a cool surface high slides across the region behind the
shearing trough, and even then we are expecting afternoon highs in
the 40s. So, while overnight lows will retreat below freezing
periodically at least afternoon highs will likely range above normal
for much of the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to stream east northeast early this
afternoon, but will also gradually erode from northwest to southeast.
Scattered to broken stratus with bases between 3-4 kft will also push
southeast this afternoon, eventually clearing out this evening. All
TAF sites should become VFR by 21z, and remain VFR through the rest
of the forecast period. North winds at around 10 kts will diminish
this evening, becoming light northeast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin