Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 192149
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
349 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018

Robust cold front is currently draped across the forecast area,
stretched from Unionville, MO south-southwestward through Butler,
MO. Drizzle and rain showers can be found on either side of the
front, with a few embedded lightning strikes observed within the
warm sector. At this point, the front has slowed down and is in
the process of stalling, not anticipated to make it much further
south and east from where it currently lies. For this evening
through overnight, the primary concern will be how far south and
east the sub-freezing temperatures get, but with the cold front
expected to retrograde and make a brief retreat back north and
westward, it should keep the north side of KC warm enough to
mitigate any significant icing issues. With temperatures already
hovering around freezing at MCI, the other factor that should help
mitigate significant icing issues will be how warm the surfaces,
namely roads, are at the moment. By tomorrow morning though, NW MO
and NE KS, at the very least, should anticipate slippery
conditions, with a very close eye being kept on the Northland and
other locations along but just outside of the advisory area.
Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory already in place for north
of the KC metro remains in effect without a southward or eastward
expansion, but will be kept closely monitored to see if
additional headlines are needed later on.

As an upper-level trough inches closer to the region tomorrow,
it`ll give the front the push it needs to continue its eastward
march it started today. However, with plentiful atmospheric
moisture to work with (PWATs well above an inch, which is well
above normal for mid-February) combining with the necessary lift
lingering in the area, precip chances look to stick around for
much of the forecast area through much of tomorrow, with all
precip chances exiting by early Wednesday.

Through the remainder of the forecast period, although there are
inherent model discrepancies in the long-term, the general
consensus is that the area remains locked in a fairly active
pattern, keeping mentionable periodic precip chances in the
forecast. The next system to watch will be a developing low
ejecting out of the southern Rockies by the end of the week, with
the "will it, won`t it" game being played again with respect to
wintry precipitation. Daytime highs appear to be supportive area-
wide for purely liquid precip, but nighttime temps could throw a
wrench into the forecast.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST MON FEB 19 2018

Overcast skies will dominate through this TAF period with low
ceilings and sporadically reduced visbys causing high impacts to
aviation interests. Additionally, cold front currently traversing
through the terminal areas will usher in sub-freezing temps by
later this afternoon into this evening, allowing for any drizzle
or showers that occur to freeze on surfaces. The huge challenge
for this forecast period will be the fact that the front is
looking to make a brief retreat back northward, allowing for
warmer temps to move back into the terminal areas. However, the
front will make its final push through by midday tomorrow, with
precip chances looking to head on out with it.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for KSZ025-102.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MOZ001>005-011-012-020.

&&

$$

Discussion...lg
Aviation...lg



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