Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 161124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2018

Dangerously cold temperatures over the area early this morning will
continue to be the rule for the next 24 to 36 hours. Early this
morning temperatures will bottom out in the single digits below
zero. Factor in NW winds between 10 to 15 MPH and wind chill values
will bottom out in the 15 to 30 below zero range early this morning.
Temperatures and wind chill values will not rebound much today as a
upper level through moves through the area. Despite the trough
moving through the area however, precipitation is not anticipated
and conditions near the surface are very dry. This trough will usher
in mostly cloudy skies and help maintain the modest NW winds through
the day. Consequently, highs are expected to stay in the single
digits over most locations today with wind chill not getting above
the single digits below zero. A wind chill advisory is in effect for
noon for dangerous wind chills however, the brutal cold will be with
us all day. Tonight surface high pressure will skirt the western CWA
which will allow winds to subside but also allow temperatures to
again plummet. Lows tonight will range from 5 above to 5 below zero.

Fortunately as we go through the latter half of the work week,
temperatures will moderate. Wednesday will begin this warm-up as the
surface high pressure shifts south of the area allowing winds to
return from the southwest. However, despite the southwest winds the
wind-up will be tempered by the cold start to the day and strong
northerly flow aloft on the backside of the departing upper level
trough Highs will be in the 20s. On Thursday, northwest flow aloft
will begin to relax and temperatures will be allowed to continue to
moderate with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Friday, weak upper
ridging over the Rockies will shift east into the region and, with
modest WAA filtering into the area, temperatures will rise into the
mid 40s to near 50. Some models area showing even warmer temps for
Friday but they may not be handling the snow pack well. Strong WAA
will continue on Saturday out ahead of a approaching cold front.
This will help continue to warm temperatures but will also increase
cloud cover and perhaps even produce some drizzle of a few light
showers. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 40s north to the upper
50s across the southern CWA.

Sunday a strong upper level trough will move from the southern
Rockies into the southern Plains force a sharp cold front into the
CWA. Temperatures across this front on Sunday will be quite
different with highs in the mid to perhaps even upper 50s across
central Missouri to the mid 30s across northwest Missouri where the
front will pass earlier in the day. Expect precipitation in the form
of rain out ahead of the front with the potential for even some
thunder however, behind the front models are depicting the potential
for snow. As far as who sees what kind of precipitation will depend
on the track of a surface low across the CWA Sunday. The EC takes
the track of the surface low across northern Kansas into Iowa which
will lead to a all rain event. The GFS on the other hand takes the
surface low right through the CWA which would produce snow with
minor accumulations across the northern CWA. The Canadian solution
is more similar to the GFS and that is represented in the forecast
inherited from the forecast builder in the potential for snow across
the northern CWA Sunday/ Sunday night. As the system exits on
Monday, temperatures will revert to near normal with highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s as no really cold air resides in the system`s
wake.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2018

MVFR cigs around 2kft are sinking southward out of Iowa this
morning and are expected to move into the terminals btn 13Z-14Z.
Model soundings suggest these MVFR cigs will lift and scatter
around 20Z before giving way to clear skies tonight. Winds will be
out of the NW today around 10kts diminishing to around 5kts this
evening before becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ006>008-013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for MOZ001>005-011-012.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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