National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 170446
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1146 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Light snow is quickly pulling out of the forecast area as the surface
low to the south tracks into the Mid-South and low-level ridging
builds in from the northwest. This ridging will allow clouds to
steadily clear out from northwest to southeast through the evening,
setting up favorable conditions for strong radiational cooling
tonight. The coldest temperatures will be across the Moberly,
Chillicothe and Kirksville areas where one to two inches of snow is
on the ground and winds will remain light most of the night. These
areas will drop well into the teens tonight, possibly as cold as the
lower teens. Increasing southerly winds late tonight will keep parts
of eastern KS and western MO from dropping below 20 degrees.

Increasing southerly winds on Monday will bring a quick warm-up to
the area with highs in the 50s, possibly even near 60 across far
northwest MO and extreme northeast KS. This will bring an increased
fire danger to those areas as winds will gust up to 25-30 mph and
humidity values will drop into the 25 to 30 percent range, possibly
lower. Will hold off on any fire weather headlines for the time being
since humidity values look to be marginal, but a red flag warning may
be required for far northwest MO with later forecasts if humidity
values look to drop any lower.

A quick-moving upper wave will track across the Upper Midwest on
Tuesday with a trailing cold front moving through the area Tuesday
afternoon. Models have sped up the timing of this front so
temperatures were lowered a few degrees Tuesday afternoon. Low-level
moisture will be very limited, so any chances for showers or
thunderstorms along the front Tuesday evening look fairly low at this
time.

The weather pattern for Wednesday through Sunday looks benign with
quasi-zonal upper level flow developing across much of the country.
This will keep temperatures near or slightly above normal through the
period with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF period as clear skies are expected
through the overnight hours before scattered high cirrus moves in
during the day tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight
with high pressure residing over the area. As high pressure shifts
east during the morning, winds will pick up from the S between
10-15kts. A strengthening low pressure across the central Plains
tomorrow afternoon will cause the pressure gradient to tighten across
the area and winds will become gusty at the terminals during the
afternoon hours. Otherwise...winds will lose their gusts during the
evening but remain between 10-15kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...73