National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 161124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

The primary challenge in the short term will again be thunderstorm
chances today and tonight as a shortwave trough moves through the
region and a few weak frontal boundary traverse the forecast area.
Thunderstorm potential will be fairly low through at least mid
afternoon, with a small potential for isolated thunderstorms to re-
develop along an elevated boundary early this morning mainly south
of I-70, and another small chance for re-development across our far
south early this afternoon. Instability will be fairly high with
MUCAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range this morning increasing to values
greater than 3000 J/kg by this afternoon; however, very weak low-
level focus for convective initiation and at least some CIN will be
the limiting factors for this morning through the early afternoon.

A shortwave trough will dive through central Kansas today, which
will override a weak, nearly stationary cold front near the Nebraska
border. Storms are expected to develop in north central Kansas this
afternoon, but the exact location and timing of initiation will
depend on where any outflow boundaries materialize today. Any storms
that develop will spread southeast during the evening and overnight
hours, with possible additional development to the east especially
if outflow kicks eastward away from the main area of convection in
Kansas. While the primary target for thunderstorms may remain to our
west today, propagation of existing convection or new development
east of the main wave could result in scattered thunderstorms this
evening and tonight, especially across our southwestern CWA.
Although widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a stronger
storm could brush the western edge of the forecast area this evening
or early tonight.

High temperatures today will depend on how much clearing can happen
during the afternoon hours, but should reach into the middle to
possibly upper 80s. Dewpoints will remain fairly high in the upper
60s to low 70s throughout the day, bumping afternoon heat indices to
near 90, especially across central and southern portions of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

Vort max responsible for convective activity to the west on Sunday
will drop southeast into the MO Ozarks on Monday. Most models have
shifted slightly faster and further south with this feature,
suggesting the better chances for convection on Monday will be
across southeast Kansas into southern MO. Still, most models are
depicting weak to moderate instability developing across much of the
area Monday afternoon, which could support at least low-chance PoPs
across eastern KS into northern MO on Monday depending on the amount
of cloud cover.

Surface high pressure will build into the region on Tuesday which
will keep the area mostly sunny and dry. This feature will push east
of the area on Wednesday allowing for an increase in humidity and
instability. This could set the stage for another round of
thunderstorms Weds or Weds night, although models diverge by this
point with the speed at which a large upper level ridge will build
into the region. If the slower GFS were to verify, there could be a
round of thunderstorms dropping through the area on Weds before the
ridge shunts the storm track well north of the area for the end of
the week. This will also bring in warmer conditions with
temperatures likely rising into the 90s for Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

LOW END MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING ERODES THIS CLOUD DECK BY MID MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD TRACK INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET
UP WEST OF THE TERMINALS...SO HAVE GONE WITH VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR NOW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Laflin