Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 270551
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1151 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Adjusted overnight PoPs for radar trends and added drizzle (did that
awhile back). Have also pulled Pops westward into the southwestern
CWA Saturday morning to account for latest HRRR trend towards
developing a secondary area of light precipitation northeastward into
east central KS/west central MO. Satellite imagery shows rapid
increase in upstream mid clouds from southeast NM through western OK.
Some question as to whether or not the 00z NAM`s dry wedge under this
cloud layer is real or not. 00z OKC sounding suggests otherwise. 12z
ECMWF supports the HRRR solution while the 00z GFS does pick up on
some QPF Sat morning making it into our southeastern CWA.
Precipitation type dependent on near surface temperatures and
vertical stratification of same. Tricky. Fortunately QPF should be
minor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Ceilings have finally begun to lower towards low MVFR and upper IFR
range as light rain across eastern KS moves northeastward towards
KSTJ and KMCI. KMKC looks to stay on the edge of the heavier band
with just a quick light shower in the near term. Question is if
disjointed band of rain showers currently across northeast OK will be
able to hold up and move up into eastern KS over the next several
hours. Lower ceilings and a reduction of VISIBILITIES are expected
to move in behind this current rain band given upstream obs. IFR deck
will begin to scatter out by mid morning with MVFR deck looking to
scatter out by 20-21Z. Skies will clear as the upper level system
moves east and surface high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM





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