Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 231733
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 420 AM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

Focus on the forecast is on Friday afternoon and evening due to the
potential for severe weather; though in general it will be a bit
active over the next week as there will be three different events
that may bring some much needed spring rains.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a ridge amplifying across the
Plains in response to the large trough swinging onshore across the
West Cost. Water vapor imagery in particular highlights the east
Pacific moisture this through is scooping up and will be bringing
with it over the next few days. Farther south, surface observations
show a frontal boundary stalled over the Red River Valley, which
will shift north quickly today with the help of the West Coast
trough.

Today and tonight...will be rather benign compared to the rest of
the forecast. The front across the Red River Valley will move north
today as the Western trough inches east towards the Plains. Over-
running moisture advection will keep the region cloudy today and may
bring some scattered showers or drizzle to the region during the
day. Any rain that occurs today wont amount to much as moisture is
still rather limited locally. We will have to wait for the more
abundant moisture advecting from the Eastern Pacific and the western
Gulf before rainfall totals get above a few hundredths of an inch.
Otherwise, with the warm front lifting north today, expect
temperatures to climb back into the 70s.

Friday and Friday night...is where our focus for weather will be
with a chance of severe weather for Friday afternoon and evening.
Models are still trying to pin down the trajectory that the upper
level trough and surface low will take as they move through the
Plains Friday and the weekend, but the latest trend does shift the
surface low a bit farther north, which would allow more instability
to advect north ahead of the surface low during the day Friday.
Looking closer at the various model data, they advertise MUCAPE
values around 1000 J/KG advecting north into western Missouri by the
afternoon hours; which will be coincident with 0-6KM shear values in
the 70 knot range by the mid to late afternoon hours of Friday; thus
inching up the potential threat of severe weather. Given the liner
shear along much of the expected line of storms, hail and damaging
winds are the main threats, but backing winds at the surface as you
move into central and southern Missouri may result in a tornado
potential across southern Missouri and points south Friday afternoon
and evening. Also, with precipitable water values running over
one inch, expectations are that any and all the these storms will
be efficient rain makers. So, while the overall expected line of
storms should be progressive, there could be enough training of
storms along the line coupled with efficient rain making to result
in localized flooding. Otherwise, while the main focus for
thunderstorms and severe weather is along the leading line of
advertised storms, the fact remains that the core of the upper
level trough will swing across Missouri Friday night, with the
cold core possibly initiating more late night thunderstorm
activity. The severe potential for any late night activity will be
very dependent on what happened earlier in the day.

Saturday through the rest of the weekend into next work week...the
potential for storms will persist through Saturday as the upper
level low and wrap around precipitation persist across eastern
Kansas and northern Missouri through the daylight and evening hours.
However, the severe threat will have moved off to our east as we
find ourselves on the back side of this system. Fore the most part
the rainy activity will have moved to our northeast by early Sunday
morning, leaving the tail end of the weekend likely rather nice.
However, our next chance for rain will arrive Sunday night and last
through Monday as a secondary trough slips in behind the trough that
brought Friday and Saturday`s weather. And, this isn`t even the last
chance of rain in the forecast, as there is a persistent single in
the mid-range and ensemble models of another rain making system
moving through the Plains towards the end of next work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU MAR 23 2017

Gusty south winds and VFR conditions will continue through the
next several hours, and while scattered cumulus may develop this
afternoon, bases should remain above 5,000 ft. Low-level wind
shear will be a concern tonight as winds between 1-2 kft begin to
increase to around 50 kts, and will continue until gusts begin to
translate to the surface after sunrise Friday. A few light rain
showers are possible across far northwest MO this afternoon and
across portions of central MO on Friday morning, but should stay
primarily north and then east of the terminals. Have added some
VCSH for Friday morning as showers develop, but again, expect
those showers to increase in coverage and intensity once they are
east of all terminals. Thunderstorms are possible just beyond the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin


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