Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 081748

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1248 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Issued at 351 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The main concern in the short term (and really the whole forecast
package) will be the chance for showers and potentially a few
thunderstorms late this afternoon into tonight. This morning an
upper level trough is moving into the Upper Midwest forcing a
surface trough into the central Plains. With the forcing well north
of the area however, the surface trough will slowly sag towards the
area this morning moving into the northwestern CWA early this
afternoon. Temperatures will warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead
of the trough. This trough will then sag slowly southeast through
the CWA late this afternoon through this evening. However, with a
lack of forcing and weak convergence along the front, there may be
very little if any precip along the trough. The best chance for
precipitation looks to be along the southern CWA where the strongest
instability and convergence will exist. A feature that may be of
more interest will be a upper level shortwave that is moving through
the northern High Plains this morning. This shortwave is expected to
dig southeastward and move into the region tonight. This will force
an effective cold front into the area and will provide a better
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms with the best
potential occurring after midnight across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. This front should clear the southern CWA by early tomorrow
morning ushering in dry and cooler conditions.

Beyond the first 24 hours of this forecast period conditions look
tranquil and mild. Friday will be the coolest day of the forecast
period with highs in the mid to upper 60s behind the front. A warm
trend is then expected through the weekend as warm air advection and
upper level ridging moving into the region should help temperatures
warm into the low to mid 80s by Sunday. Models are in good agreement
that a dry cold frontal passage will occur Sunday night cooling
temperatures a bit. However, with no sign of cold air behind the
front temperatures will still remain above normal through mid-week
with highs in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Cold front passing through the region tonight has been trending
toward the drier side so STJ, MCI, and MKC look to dodge much of the
rain chances. IXD stands a better chance of seeing some showers in
the area so have included VCSH in this TAF issuance for later this
evening through tonight. Have left out mention at the other three
sites for this issuance but is quite possible that future updates may
include RA/TS mention as necessary. Wind shift will be progressive
throughout the day, becoming northerly later tonight.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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