Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 120851
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Overnight convection remains mostly located in areas from northeast
Nebraska arching through central Iowa into Illinois, which coincides
with edge of the nocturnal jet where warm air and moisture transport
is piling up early this morning. Closer to home, starting to get
some scattered radar returns across central Missouri likely owing to
weak moisture transport noted from the SPCs meso-analysis page.

Early morning showers in central Missouri don`t look like they will
last long. HRRR and other meso-models advertising this modest
activity all have it dissipating as quickly as it appeared as the
primary focus for moisture transport will remain to our north along
the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies across Nebraska and
Iowa today. Convection to our north will likely reinforce a weak
cold front settling south into Kansas and Missouri late tonight,
which will eventually bring the focus for some rain farther south
--likely after midnight--. However, before that occurs we will have
to get through a hot and muggy day. H8 temperatures today in the 20C
to 22C range, along with plenty of insolation thanks to clearing
skies, should allow temperates to reach into the 90s across the
entire forecast region today.

For tonight...have bumped POPs after midnight into the likely range
as models are consistent in settling the activity across Nebraska
and Iowa into at least northern Missouri as the front settles south.
Rainfall totals across far northern Missouri could be a bit high
owing to precipitable water values will be over 1.5 inches, though
the storms should be progressive enough with the fronts movement to
limit flooding issues. Otherwise, severe potential can not be ruled
out, but shear looks highly confined to the front and late night
instability is not looking overly favorable. That said, small hail,
locally gusty winds and torrential rain would be the hazards to
highlight with any of our late Saturday Night/early Sunday Morning
activity.

Storm chances will linger into Sunday, but the next best chance for
storms looks to hold off till Monday as a shortwave trough rotates
through the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will push a
more substantial cold front into Missouri providing focus for more
storms.

Otherwise, still looking at the potential for record low maximum
temperatures for Tuesday and record low temperatures both Tuesday
and Wednesday as cool Canadian air settles south into the Plains
States.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

Little change in this forecast from the previous forecast. Inserted
an ending time for the wind gusts Saturday evening. A cold front will
sag southward through the evening/overnight hours on Saturday night.
Expect the convective activity to remain north of the terminals until
the very end of the forecast period, but thunderstorms should be
moving into KSTJ and KMCI/KMKC shortly after 06z.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Leighton





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