Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 292335
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Issued at 410 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Tonight - Sunday...
Not much change in airmass over the CWA through tomorrow. Weak
surface cold front lies just east and south of the CWA will inch
southward overnight. A post frontal boundary/shear zone lies from
near IRK to around EAX. Have received a few reports of funnel clouds
near Odessa and Centerview. These funnels have formed along/near
this boundary where 500-800 J/kg have allowed for some weak lift to
form in conjunction with horizontal vorticity that has been slightly
tilted in the vertical. BTW, these are not cold-air funnels. Anyway
these conditions will end with loss of daytime heating.
Inspection of 12z TOP/OAX soundings depict a frontal inversion that
will persist into Sunday. Any moisture, i.e. clouds, that are unable
to scatter out will be trapped under this inversion. So, expectation
is now for considerable cloud cover to remain over the CWA through
the night before finally scattering out mid/late Sunday morning. One
can certainly make the case for stratus/fog forming overnight and the
fog is supported by the SREF visibility/ceiling forecast.
Should be able to warm up well into the 80s on Sunday given the
expected increase in sunshine and slightly warmer 925mb
Monday - Saturday...
The lack of a definitive shortwave trough passing nearby nor a front
highly favors an extended dry period. The operational models do
wobble today`s shortwave trough southward towards the Gulf Coast as
the upper flow becomes southwesterly from the Southern Rockies
northeast through the central U.S. Seasonably warm temperatures
expected with little day-to-day fluctuations due to neutral
advection during the period.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Persistent cloud cover expected to remain over area terminals this
evening as moisture remains trapped below a frontal inversion. As
such...expect the continuation of MVFR cigs at all sites
overnight...with weak winds allowing for the potential of fog
development after the 7z time frame. If this occurs as advertised by
various model progs...another early morning of IFR/LIFR looks
possible. Based on uncertainty regarding possible breaks in
overlying stratus...will further evaluate trends before getting too
specific with IFR/LIFR forecast after 7z. Otherwise...clouds/fog
should scatter out by 15z with VFR conditions returning area-wide.