Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192316

616 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

Issued at 323 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Mild temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the rest
of today and tonight as southwest winds bring advect a slightly
warmer and more moist airmass into the region. A weak cold front and
associated shortwave trough will pass through the region on Monday
morning, but limited moisture through the depth of the atmosphere
will prevent any precipitation along the boundary as it moves
through. Temperatures will be similar if not even a few degrees
warmer in some locations behind the front as 850 mb temperatures
continue to rise, allowing highs to remain around or just above
normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Monday.

Similar seasonable temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
weak southerly flow returns at low levels, and no precipitation is
expected through late Wednesday evening. Models are coming into
better agreement with the western trough heading out into the Plains
midweek, lending better confidence to a damp forecast for late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Timing has sped the system up just a
touch over the last few model runs, but rainfall is still expected
to hold off until after midnight Wednesday night in the KC area and
locations east. Convergence along the surface front also decreases
from west to east on Thursday, indicating that precipitation may not
hold together on Thursday as the system heads east of I-35. Either
way, precipitation amounts should be light, especially east of the
KS/MO border.

After Thursday, dry conditions will return and temperatures will
head back above normal throughout the region as longwave ridging
builds in aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. SW winds
will change over to NW Monday morning with the passage of a cold
front extending over the area from the north. A few overnight clouds
expected, but will see clearing behind the frontal boundary. Added a
chance of fog development at KSTJ due to low-level moisture. Warmer
temperatures at KSTJ will make fog chances less favorable than
previous morning.




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