Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 090452
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Upper trough deepening from the Great Lakes into the eastern U.S.
while an upper ridge builds over the western U.S. In-between these
two systems northwest flow is noted. For at least the next 24 hours
sinking motion from the the Dakotas through MO will enhance the
drying provided by high pressure at the surface which will build
eastward from the High Plains. Lacking a source of warm advection
within the boundary layer have lowered high temperatures next two
days.

The cold front which passed through the CWA last night and currently
extends from southern MO through the TX Panhandle will eventually
retreat northeast as a warm front and through the CWA by Friday.
Models showing signals of elevated convection forming over the
Central High Plains by Wednesday evening as increasing isentropic
ascent on the 305-310 surfaces combines with weak disturbances
aloft which are embedded with the northwest flow. Initially the
rain threat will be confined to the far western CWA Wednesday night
and Thursday. By Thursday evening the warm air advection aloft will
strengthen and force the elevated convection to increase in
coverage. Highest PoPs will be across northern MO northward but can
envision extending PoPs southward across the rest of the CWA as the
warm front lifts northeast and through the CWA. The heat and
humidity should return with the passage of the front on Friday.

However, the global models suggest the front may stall near the
MO/IA border Friday night through Saturday night so at least low
chance PoPs for the northern CWA are warranted.

The extended portion of the forecast from Sunday through Tuesday
looks like we will be in a transition period as the GFS is now on
board with the ECMWF with respect to a deep upper low forming over
southeast Canada with its broad cyclonic circulation being felt as
far west as the Mid MO Valley. This pattern would likely favor a
secondary back-door type cold front dropping south-southwest through
MN and through the CWA Monday or Monday night. This would allow
unseasonably cool and dry air to filter into the region. Given how
much of an anomaly this system is have gone the conservative route
on temperatures with the possibility that later forecasts will be
even cooler.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

VFR conds will cont thru the TAF period as clear skies will prevail
overnight. Sct cu will develop tomorrow morning around 4kft with bkn
mid-level cloud moving into the terminals during the evening hours.
Winds will be lgt and var thru tomorrow evening when they will become
prevailing out of the SE btn 5-10kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...73






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