Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181723
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1123 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 359 AM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

Cold front has just about pushed through the southern portions of
the forecast area as of early this morning. The primary weather
impacts will be 1) continued chances for post-frontal precipitation
in the form of rain during the remainder of the morning hours and 2)
gusty northwest winds on the order of 30-40 mph gusts. Total
precipitation amounts will be light, generally between 0.10-0.25,
with rainfall ending at or before noon. Likewise, clouds will
rapidly clear from west to east during the afternoon hours. Even
with the afternoon sunshine, cold air advection will hold or bring
down temperatures into the middle 40s to lower 50s. The other aspect
to the day will be the windy conditions, with the highest gusts
likely occurring during the morning into early afternoon hours. As
of now, majority of guidance keeps sustained and gust wind speeds
below advisory criteria, with marginal peak gusts for an advisory at
best. Will watch upstream for wind speeds during the next couple of
hours to monitor whether peak gusts can reach upper envelope of
model guidance, and if so, an advisory may then be needed.
Otherwise, with the cooler airmass in place along with clear skies
and winds becoming light, overnight lows for tonight will fall back
down into the middle 20s to near 30.

For the upcoming week, no appreciable weather is anticipated for the
area with dry northwest flow aloft. A cold frontal passage is
expected on Tuesday reinforcing the cool airmass, resulting in mid-
week being the coolest temperatures during the work week.
Thanksgiving Day looks to be seasonably pleasant with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST SAT NOV 18 2017

VFR conditions will return quickly this afternoon as low clouds
associated with this morning`s frontal passage exit stage right.
Gusty northwest winds will prevail in its wake however with gusts
up to 35 kts possible through early evening. Weaker winds and
mostly clear skies to then dominate through the overnight hours
as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...32



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