Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260516
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

The short term forecast looks to be cooler than normal with the
chance for showers and thunderstorms. What could potentially be more
interesting is the chance for mixed precipitation on both Thursday
night and Friday night as temperatures drop below freezing both
nights.

This afternoon, a warm front, which was the focus for the severe
weather over our area yesterday, is analyzed across southern
Missouri back into northern Oklahoma. Isentropic ascent along this
front as a shortwave moves into the area has sparked convection
along and north of this front south of the CWA. Although instability is
limited across the forecast area, thunderstorms that develop south of
the area may hold together long enough to make it into the southern CWA
this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect rain associated with an upper
level trough to move into the area this evening and spread west to
east over the entire area tonight. The upper level trough will dig
through the area overnight exiting the eastern CWA by tomorrow
morning. In its wake the area will be under strong northwest flow
aloft. Couple that with modest CAA at the surface during the day
tomorrow and temperatures will be about ten degrees below normal with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tomorrow night a vort max dropping south on northwest flow will
bring showers to the area. The question is: in what form will those
showers be? Model soundings indicate that showers will initially
begin as rain as there is a deep enough near surface warm layer.
This layer will cool overnight and model soundings indicate a change
over to snow as surface temperatures drop to the upper 20s to mid
30s. Little to no accumulation is expected however. By Friday, cool
surface high pressure will build into the area under persistent
strong northwest flow aloft. This will keep high temperatures in the
mid 40s to around 50. Friday night, another vort max will drop
through the area on northwest flow. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than the previous night, the warm layer near the
surface will be deeper, and moisture will be limited. as such it
appears any light precipitation that does fall on Friday night will
fall in the form of rain. low will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
With the potential of below freezing temperatures both Friday
morning and Saturday morning, any interests that have planted or
have sensitive vegetation outdoors will need to take precautions to
preserve them.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

As the weekend arrives a large trough of cool air will be working
its way east from the Plains States into the eastern CONUS. This
trough will have already brought the coldest readings of the week to
the region Thursday night into Friday, though as the trough shifts
farther east Saturday we will quickly find ourselves back in a
warming trend that will lift readings well above normal again late
in the weekend and into the beginning of next work week. This
scenario will set up a bit of a northwest flow across Central Plains
late in the weekend and into next work week, which could bring a
shot at some precipitation Sunday, with another shot later in the
work week as the flow flattens out. However, disagreement in medium
range models have contributed to very low confidence in the forecast
beyond Monday, especially with respect to precipitation.

Medium range models continue to key on a shortwave trough sliding
through the Northern Plains Sunday sliding in on the back side of
the exiting trough. GFS keeps the system compact and limits
associated precipitation, while the ECMWF shears apart the wave and
is much more generous with spreading precipitation south into
Missouri. Model agreement doesn`t get any better through the
remainder of current forecast and is responsible for the low
confidence of this forecast. Have inserted chance POPs across
central and northeast Missouri to go with the Sunday shortwave
trough, with slight chance POPs tailing back to the west through
Missouri into eastern Kansas. Later in the work week interacting
features in the northern and southern streams may help develop
storms again Tuesday night into Wednesday, but once again confidence
is low owing to model differences. However, while confidence on
precipitation is low, confidence on temperatures is rather high; so
expect readings to bubble up into the 70s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The back edge of light rain will continue to shift east into central
MO by 09z. MVFR cigs have cleared out of all the terminals with
clouds steadily thinning overnight. 

Ceilings will steadily drop beginning late Thursday afternoon in
advance of an upper level system streaking southward through the
Northern Plains. An area of rain/MVFR ceilings is expected to track
through northern and west central MO during the evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...MJ






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