Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 212135

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
335 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Issued at 334 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Little change to the forecast through the period. The theme remains
of continued cold this weekend, with warming temperatures through
the work week, followed by increasing chances of precipitation by

A cold temperatures are still expected overnight, but a few degrees
warmer than previously anticipated due to increasing clouds tonight.
An upper wave seen on water vapor over Wyoming will quickly move
over the area, with low/mid clouds moving across the area. This will
help mitigate stronger radiational cooling. Drier air below H85
should prevent any precipitation from reaching the surface. Overall,
lows tonight will still be hard freeze, with readings in the lower
to middle 20s. A few spots in Putnam and Schuyler Counties may fall
into the teens where some snow cover remains.

The warming trend begins on Sunday, and especially Monday into
Thursday, as above normal temperatures are expected. These warmer
readings will be in response to broad southwesterly flow ahead of an
amplifying upper trough over the Intermountain West. An increase in
moisture is also anticipated, and with a few weak waves ahead of
this feature and an approaching frontal zone, some light
precipitation is expected ahead of the system. The best chance of
rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday across the area as
the front and upper system move through the region. By Thursday
night into Friday, there is considerable uncertainty to the coverage
of precipitation lingering behind the cold front as colder air
begins to advect into the area. If light precipitation remains, then
a slight chance of snow would be possible as vertical temperature
profiles begin to support snowfall. That said, any remaining
precipitation would be light in nature and the window of opportunity
short, therefore no accumulation is expected with the scenario at
this time. Below normal temperatures return for Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon with increased
winds out of the north, gusting to 25 kts. Winds will shift out of
the south as the surface ridge axis pushes east this evening.
Overnight stratus is expected to develop as a shortwave will quickly
cross through the area. Current thinking is that these should remain
VFR, though MVFR development is possible. These will scatter out
Sunday morning as winds turn westerly by the end of the period.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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