Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 160439

1139 PM CDT Fri May 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

Active weather already underway in a line stretching from NW MO
southeastward into the Boonville-Moberly area has been feisty at
times, with some of the individual cells becoming strong and
marginally severe. The primary threats with this line, other than
dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds, has been the
heavy rainfall with some downpours being reported in a very short
amount of time. In the Warrensburg area, approximately 0.6 inches of
rain fell within about a 15 minute period, along with other reports
from across the KC metro area when the line came through, indicating
very efficient rain producers in a copiously-moist airmass. Latest
RAP PWAT values via the SPC Mesoanalysis page are showing ~1.3 to
~1.5 inches, which is around/above the 90th percentile for this time
of year based on climatology. What will need to be watched through
tonight is the potential for redevelopment behind this line as the
atmosphere attempts to quickly recharge. SBCAPE values have already
begun to rebound behind the line with just some marginal CIN in the
area. Additionally, dewpoints continue to linger in the upper 60s
and visible satellite imagery, along with area ground obs, shows
some partial clearing, allowing temps to continue to climb into the
mid to upper 70s behind the line. While it is possible that the line
worked over the local atmosphere enough to quell storm chances for
the rest of tonight, indications are pointing toward not ruling out
the possibility of redevelopment across the forecast area.

For early tomorrow morning, could see a brief break in the radar
imagery before the day becomes active once more. The approaching
system has been well-advertised at this point and trends continue to
indicate that while storms could fire up as early as midday out
ahead of the front, the main push won`t be coming through until
tomorrow night. Early in the evening, plentiful instability will be
in place as the dynamics move into the area from the west but as
night falls and the surface-based instability wanes, storms could
become more elevated as the night progresses and the activity treks
eastward across the forecast area. LL nocturnal jet should be
ramping up as the SBCAPE winds down, so something else to keep in
mind with the evolution of the storms tomorrow night. With plentiful
moisture continuing to dampen the atmosphere through tomorrow night,
PWAT values could climb even higher than today, flirting with max
values for this time of year. Heavy rain will once again be a
concern, along with any strong to severe storms that may develop.
Bottom line: this system will be one to continue to watch closely,
particularly in eastern KS/western MO where the ingredients align
better for severe chances.

For Sunday, the front will be making its way through so some storm
chances could continue to exist for primarily the eastern half of
the forecast area with perhaps some stronger storms, but not as much
of a concern as compared to tomorrow as the ingredients wane in
intensity, making it a less favorable environment for sustained
activity. With the fropa by Sunday night, precip chances will
completely exit with it, leaving Monday with a rather pleasant
mid-Spring day.

Much like today, temps tomorrow will have no problems once again
reaching into the upper 70s despite any possible cloud cover or
rain, thanks to the stout WAA under southerly flow. Highs will
similarly climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday with the
last punch of warm, moist air before the much cooler, drier airmass
takes over on the backside of the front. Lows tonight and tomorrow
night will be balmy again, only dropping into the mid 60s with the
cooldown arriving on our doorstep by Sunday night. NW MO will be
greeted with upper 40s to lower 50s Monday morning, with a gradient
of warmer temps across the forecast area from the NW to the SE as
locations from around Howard County through Bates County struggle to
drop below the 60 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

The early part of next week will feature dry weather with cooler than
normal temperatures as a surface ridge noses into the area from the
north. Through at least Tuesday expect the area to be firmly under
the influence of the surface ridge. Expect highs on Monday and
Tuesday to generally be in the middle 60s to perhaps lower 70s with
lows in the 40s to 50s. the chances for rain then return for the
middle part of next week, as the surface ridge moves off to the east
and southerly return flow brings some moisture back into the plains.
With a large trough expected to take form across the western CONUS
southwest flow aloft will aid in producing precipitation in the
Tuesday night Wednesday time frame. With another surface ridge
progged to nose in late next week the chances for rain likewise
dwindle toward the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the remainder of the night. Though
there may be some MVFR ceilings develop at some point, confidence
isn`t high enough to mention at this time. By late tomorrow morning
though, MVFR ceilings should develop with diurnal heating. These may
lift to VFR later in the afternoon but there will also be showers and
storms in the area. Any precipitation in the afternoon looks spotty
enough at this point to just carry a VCTS. But after 00Z, confidence
is high enough to bring in a TSRA group with a line of storms likely
to move into the forecast area from the west.




LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...CDB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.