Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 030903
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

The upper level trough that was the catalyst for yesterday`s showers
and thunderstorms, is swinging through the region this morning. Wrap
around moisture on the backside of the system is providing for some
light rain and light snow early this morning. These light rain and
snow chances will continue through mid-morning before the upper
level trough moves northeast into the Great Lakes region. No
accumulation is expected. What will continue through the day today
will be CAA provided by modest and gusty northwest winds as well as
continued overcast stratus. This will help keep temperatures below
normal today with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Factoring in
the northwest winds and wind chill values will hover in the mid
teens to mid 20s. Winds, however, will subside this evening  and
skies will clear as a surface ridge of high pressure quickly
traverses the area tonight. This will allow temperatures to drop
into the mid teens to lower 20s tonight. The high pressure ridge
will quickly shift east on Thursday and winds will return out of the
southwest. Couple that with modest height rise and mostly sunny
skies and temperatures will return to near or even slightly above
normal with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. An upper level
shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest on Thursday
night forcing a weak cold front through the area however, the
frontal passage should remain dry as moisture is meager. Friday a
upper level trough will dig from the High Plains into the Central
Plains. In response to the digging trough, shortwave ridging will
build in over the area on Friday allowing temperatures to rise into
the 40s.

The next chance for precipitation will come on Friday night as a
cold front pushes through the CWA. The better forcing will remain
north of the area however, models suggest enough of a moisture
return this time for a slight chance of light rain or snow across
the southern CWA. Saturday and Sunday continue to look like
transition days before a pattern shift from a more progressive storm
track to a highly amplified one. Expect highs in the 40s both days.
The pattern change will begin on Sunday as an upper level trough
digs south through the eastern Plains and Midwest. this will bring
the chance for light snow to the area Sunday night and Monday. It
will also bring much colder temperatures as much of the eastern
CONUS will be under deep upper level troughing with highly amplified
ridging over the western CONUS. Our region will be under strong
northwest flow aloft keeping temperatures well below normal by the
time we get to Tuesday with highs generally in the 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MVFR CIGs have moved in across the terminals late this evening as low
cloud cover wraps around the surface low lifting northeast into Iowa.
Low end MVFR CIGs will prevail through the rest of the overnight
hours and much of the day Wednesday before the cloud cover starts to
break up as the system moves farther to our northeast. Otherwise,
gusty northwest winds should diamante through the rest of the
overnight hours and into Wednesday before they ease up and begin
backing Wednesday evening.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Cutter


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