Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KEAX 181005

405 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Minor winter storm ongoing across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
early Thursday morning. As of 3 am several reports of around 3 to 4
inches of snow have been received to the office, slightly higher
than previous forecast amounts. This increase in total snow is
likely due to a more convective nature of these snow showers, which
has led to fairly high snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour in some
locations. 06z NAM has hinted a slightly higher EPV values in the
saturated dendritic growth zone in and around the far western and
northwestern part of Missouri. Slightly higher than forecast low/mid
level frontogenesis has also played a role in the slightly higher
snow fall amounts. As the main mid level wave continues to eject
through the area, mid level lift will continue. This is apparent in
radar trends across far eastern Kansas, where another area of
moderate to heavy snow currently resides. Given that some parts of
western Missouri have already seen 3 to 4 inches it`s conceivable
with the batch of snow on the way that another 1 to 3 inches could
fall. Should any of those moderate to heavy snow showers coincide
with areas already in the 3 to 4 inch range they could ultimately
end up with 4-6 inches. These totals should be incredibly isolated
and limited in spatial domain, however. As a result of the increased
snow forecast, have expanded the winter weather advisory to
encompass virtually all of the CWA, save three counties in NE

This second batch of snow should clear the area by sunrise, leaving
off-and-on light snow through the mid morning before eventually
coming to an end this evening. There could be a period of light
freezing drizzle as the atmospheric column loses some of its deep
saturation. With a lack of appreciable lift the freezing drizzle
should be held to a minimum. Roads could still be slick, so safe and
slow driving is advised. Precipitation of all forms should clear the
area by this evening, leaving Thursday night and Friday dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

For the extended period of the forecast, there are several minor
disturbances to track and potentially one major system to keep an
eye on.

A weak trough will move through the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest and spread light precipitation north of the forecast area
through Saturday night/Sunday. A deeper trough will fill in behind
this leading wave and bring a better chance for measurable
precipitation to much of the area Monday and Monday night. Thermal
profiles favor liquid precipitation through the day and much of the
night. But as cold air advects on the back side of the system, and
we remain within an area of cyclonically curved upper flow, we should
see some light snow move in early Tuesday morning or through the day
Tuesday. This trough is expected to move into the eastern Great
Lakes and southeastern Canada, but it will leave behind cold air.
This colder air should be in place for a system around or or just
after Christmas. In previous days, models were developing a potent
storm to the east of the area. Tonight`s suite of models have
unanimously shifted the storm to the west by several hundred miles.
So what looked like a miss for the local region has shifted to a
potential major system potentially affecting the area Thursday night
through Friday next week. The GFS has shifted to a favorable track
to bring snow to much of eastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.
The ECMWF, while it has shifted west as well, is also a little
further north and brings the surface low over the the local area,
shifting its heavier snow northward. While there is still a lot time
between then an now, with it being so close to holiday it is
something that anybody who has to travel will have to monitor the
forecast closely.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Snow is currently impacting, or will impact the terminals in the next
hour. Main edge of snow currently along a line from KFNB
southeastward to KJEF and is slowly spreading northeast. Main issue for the
prevailing TAF period is periods of reduced visibility as heavier
bands move across the terminals. Visibility has been falling to LIFR
with these bands. Snow will begin to wind down between a 15-17Z
period. As main area of lift moves out of the region, snow will come
to an end but there is a slight chance for some patchy freezing
drizzle to develop given saturated lower levels.


KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR KSZ025-



     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ001>006-



SHORT TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...PMM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.