Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
832 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Cold front and associated convection have moved south and east of the
CWA and thus eliminated any additional threat for measurable
rainfall. Now there could still be some sprinkles falling out of the
wrap around cloudiness over the eastern counties but if it does occur
it wouldn`t even wet the pavement. Otherwise, fog is the main concern
overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The weak upper level wave that brought the overnight rain is
currently centered over far north central MO with an attendant cold
front draped southwest from there. The front will be the focus for
afternoon scattered thunderstorms. Modest instability exists but bulk
shear is weak thus the severe threat is low with strong winds and
locally heavy rains the main issues. What activity does develop
should clear the CWA later this evening. Skies will be slow to clear
but with light winds and a moist boundary layer, patchy to locally
dense fog is expected to develop after midnight tonight, mainly north
of I-70.

Tomorrow should see low chances for scattered showers across the
eastern CWA with much of the CWA remaining dry and mild. Late
tomorrow night into Monday a trough moves across the far northern
Upper Midwest which will help kick off scattered TSRA early Monday
morning then into the day and evening. Not expecting anything severe
with the activity. From then on the region will be under the
influence of a building ridge. The ridge will allow for the return of
hot and humid air with low chance pops (mainly nocturnal) through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

A period of IFR visibilities and/or ceilings is expected late tonight
and tomorrow morning. Moisture wrapping around the upper low spinning
to the east of the area will keep ceilings in the low VFR to MVFR
range tonight. But these are expected to lower as temperatures cool
off, becoming IFR late tonight and persisting into Sunday morning.
There may also be some fog late tonight. Models suggest the clouds
will erode across northwestern Missouri, possibly as far south as
STJ. Given the recent rains and moist boundary layer as well as winds
becoming light and variable in the area, fog development seems
likely. Confidence for IFR conditions is on the medium to high side.
By mid to late Sunday morning, fog and low clouds will lift with VFR
conditions expected by the afternoon.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...CDB






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