Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181707
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Similar to yesterday, but displaced westward about 100 miles,
convection continues to develop over east central KS. This is
spreading higher cloud cover over the southern portions of the
forecast area. At the lower levels, the surface front remains to the
southwest of the forecast area with easterly surface and low-level
winds. This combination should continue to yield low clouds and
modestly reduced visibilities through the afternoon. With the
anticipation that cloud cover with linger longer, or just not erode
at all, have lowered temperatures across the area by several degrees.
For now, highs look to be in the lower 70s, rather than the mid to
upper 70s as a result. If cloud cover continues to remain thick,
continued downward updates will be needed as highs may then only make
into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today/Tonight: As of this morning, a line of thunderstorms stretch
from Salina KS to Joplin MO, with a gradual southern drift away from
the CWA. Only a slight chance of precipitation is expected for the
remainder of the morning hours over far southwest sections of the
forecast area, where an isolated shower or stratiform blowoff could
drift into the area. Otherwise, the focus has been on an expansive
area of low stratus developing over the area. In addition, areas of
fog have developed with many locations between 1 to 3 miles. The
increase in stratus along with the cirrus canopy from upstream
convection have seemingly helped temporarily mitigate widespread
dense fog from forming. There is also a slow advection of drier air
upon easterly winds, but the temperatures have cooled at nearly the
same rate. At this time, expect some areas to experience patchy
dense fog less than one-half mile prior to 14Z, especially in
low-lying areas, but uncertainty remains how much more widespread
dense fog will develop. Will continue to closely monitor dense fog
trends. Otherwise, low clouds may hold through at least early
afternoon, keeping temperatures initially slow to rise, eventually
reaching the lower to middle 70s by late afternoon. Dry conditions
will prevail through the afternoon into the early evening. The
western portion of the stationary front to our southwest over SC KS
will begin to retreat northward tonight, with increasing warm air
advection and isentropic ascent focused over the western portions of
the CWA overnight. Persistence in the pattern would suggest a third
night of convection north of the stationary front, and models also
hint at a similar scenario. Have inserted thunderstorm chances over
the western quarter of the CWA tonight. Up to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE
may reside over this area, but with marginal deep layer shear, only
a couple strong storms may be possible early in the lifespan of
storms.

Friday/Friday Night: Upper level ridging will shift into the central
CONUS. A long clockwise-curved sfc-H85 trajectory will advect deeper
moisture into the region, with surface dewpoints returning to the
upper 60s. Low clouds may persist through late morning before deeper
mixing commences, with a few scattered thunderstorms remaining north
of Interstate 70 before noon. Otherwise, no precipitation is
expected during the afternoon or evening hours. Afternoon high
temperatures will be notably warmer in the upper 70s to middle 80s,
with lows remaining in the middle to upper 60s.

Saturday: The upper pattern will feature a closed low developing
over southern California, with a well-defined vort max from the
remnants of the tropical system Odile heading northeast from the
Desert Southwest. To the north, a strong shortwave trough will
quickly dive towards the Great Lakes states and begin to amplify
into a large trough over the eastern CONUS. The model trends have
continued to look less impressive for widespread heavy rainfall for
the CWA, although chances of rain certainly look warranted. Models
have been slower with the arrival of Odile`s remains, and tend to
shift the track further south and keep it over the Southern Plains.
This places the CWA to the south of the strongest ascent from the
upper trough and to the northeast of the strongest influence of
Odile, greatly reducing confidence for widespread heavy rains. The
majority of the precipitation may be focused along the frontal
slope, which is expected to enter northern Missouri by Saturday
afternoon. To the south of the front, precipitation is more
uncertain until the front moves southward. With this in mind, have
increased temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 80s
Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Long advertised cold front to be working south through the area at
the start of the fcst period. This should allow scattered shwrs and
storms through early Sunday morning with dry weather then
anticipated through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week with the arrival of high pressure. A fairly cool airmass
should accompany this feature with some long range models
advertising highs in the upper 60s early next week. Beyond
this...west coast upper low to slowly track east into the Plains by
midweek...with shwr chances increasing across the western zones late
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps should begin to moderate during this
time as southerly flow returns in advance of aforementioned west
coast system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Conditions may become low end MVFR this afternoon but should still
remain below 2000 ft. But like the last few nights, IFR ceilings and
potentially visibilities will once again develop as the warm front
will remain to our south for much of the forecast. Towards the end of
the forecast, that front should lift northward through the area,
shifting winds to the south. But increasing low level moisture will
keep the ceilings from lifting until tomorrow afternoon. So have kept
IFR ceilings in the forecast from tonight through the end of this
forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...CDB





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