Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 302327
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

Cool weather will stick around for a couple days with a small chance
at showers, but otherwise the work week is looking good.

Satellite imagery today shows the Nation dominated by a large trough
across the western 3/4 of the country. This is due in part to the
shortwave trough that pivoted north into the Central Plains, which
brought the rain yesterday and this morning, and another trough well
to our west who`s closed circulation is noted swinging south from
the Great Basin on its way into the Desert Southwest. Locally, the
surface reflection of the Central Plains trough started the morning
in northwest Missouri, but is now opening up and shifting east
across northern Missouri as a warm front lifts north. The larger
synoptic level trough dominating the Nation will persist for another
day or so before the Desert Southwest shortwave quickly ejects into
the Plains, helping the pattern evolve from one highly amplified
state to another highly amplified state, but the amplified pattern
later in the week will let warmer temperatures return.

Tonight through Sunday into Monday...temperatures will cool off
going into Sunday as a cool surface high presses into Kansas and
Missouri as the trough overhead slowly moves northeast; and with the
Desert Southwest trough expected to be swinging into the Plains
Sunday, expectations are that much of the moisture ladened air that
got shoved just to our north today --by the lifting warm front-- will
sink back south overnight providing another round of cool, cloudy and
potential wet weather. Continue to carry POPs in areas along and
north of the Missouri River as a result, but do not expect much
accumulation if an rain develops as the focus for upper level forcing
will be in areas to our south and east. Have also included a mention
of drizzle Sunday morning as it could be cool and misty. The cooler
temperatures --highs in the 50s and 60s-- will persist into Monday as
the secondary shortwave from the Desert Southwest moves across the
Central Plains, which will also keep a slight chance of rain going
Monday morning.

Tuesday on through the rest of the forecast...is looking rather
nice. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday back to around 70, with
highs in the 70s in the days to follow. This will be in part a
result of another large trough moving into the Great Basin during
the work week, keeping the storm track clear of the Central Plains
while allowing a large upper level ridge to develop overhead.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR conds will prevail thru tonight will sct-bkn cigs around 4kft.
Tomorrow morning a sfc trof will sink thru the terminals bringing
MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft. The NAM also suggests the potential for fog
reducing vsbys to 1-2SM however, it is the only model that does so.
Consequently, have kept fog formation out of the TAF at this time
but will continue to monitor. MVFR cigs will lift to 2-3kft around
17Z-19Z with the potential for further lifting to low-end VFR by the
end of the TAF pd. Winds will be out of the west blw 10kts thru
tomorrow morning before veering to the NW around 10kts tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...73


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