Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 070903
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CST THU DEC 7 2017

It looks like a relatively quiet weather forecast over the next
week. For now have no mentionable PoPs or weather. But the
pattern itself, with a persistent ridge over the western states
and a trough over the eastern CONUS, is favorable for fast-moving
clipper-type systems to affect the area. With this forecast, the
main sensible effect would be to switch surface winds to the north
and cool temperatures down, as models show the main pushes of
vorticity staying to our north and northeast.

There are several of these depicted in the forecast. The area is in
the wake of one such front currently and it still looks like a good
chance many folks will see sub-freezing high temperatures today.
The next system is Friday night into Saturday. A strong wave dives
south through MN and IA, into the Midwest and then the Mid
Atlantic. This sends a cold front through the area and winds
become gusty from the northwest Friday night into Saturday.
Another strong system will track over the area Monday into
Tuesday. It`s quite possible PoPs will need to be extended into
the area, similar to Wednesday, but for now, the atmosphere just
looks too dry to support precipitation. But temperatures will cool
down from Monday into Tuesday as the surface flow increases out
of the northwest and cold advection occurs behind the front
associated with the upper system. Have increased wind speeds as a
PV anomaly moving overhead is a classic signal for stronger
surface winds. Forecast sounding also show relatively deep mixing
into very strong winds aloft with potential for some weak
instability, due to the PV anomaly moving over.

Also, by the end of the forecast, into the middle of next week, it
looks like the upper ridge may weaken/retrograde to off the west
coast with the upper trough broadening and encompassing more of the
CONUS. This suggest cooler temperatures with the broad cyclonic
flow. But models this far out have had little consistency, varying
from run to run. So for now have kept temperatures generally in
the middle 40s.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST WED DEC 6 2017

Gusty northwest winds will persist for the next 12 or so hours,
with a gradual relaxing with time. Recent Observations indicate
some low stratus lingering in the area, but this stratus should
depart the area within the next couple hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Leighton



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