Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 081610
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1010 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Fcst on track so no signifcant changes other than a few tweeks for
high temperatures today. Water vapor shows fast moving short wave
near the Manitoba/Ontario border headed south-southeast for the MN
arrowhead later today. Snow with this system near and east of the
wave in Ontario and far eastern Manitoba per radar and obs.
Overall idea of most of the snow skirting our far northeast is
still reasonable with risk of a few flurries into parts of the RRV
this aftn. NW winds will get gusty this aftn with 35-40 kts at 925
mb but cold advection in the levels is not that great so full
impact at the sfc will not be felt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

The short term period presents two main forecast challenges. An
upper wave will drop out of NE Manitoba mid-day today and bring a
quick burst of light snow to areas east of the Red River,
primarily over northwest and west central Minnesota. A cold front
will shift surface winds to the northwest and cold advection
behind the wave will create some higher winds in the 18Z to 03Z
timeframe.

Models continue to be in good agreement with an area of H300-H500
Q-vector convergence forcing sinking into northeast zones from MB
in the 15Z to 18Z timeframe with peak magnitudes clipping far
eastern zones this afternoon. The strongest Q-vector convergence
will be over the Arrowhead. Wave is well down into southeast MN
by 03Z. Time lagged CONS short presents best solution for POPs
this afternoon, with likely POPs entering Baudette region by 17Z
and impacting primarily Lake of the Woods and Beltrami
counties...with scattered snow showers possible as far west as the
Red River. Still looking at an inch or two possible over the far
northeastern zones. The strongest surface winds will be over
northeast ND by 21Z but not impact areas with fresh snow until
the early evening...when snow should be tapering off. Therefore
not looking for significant impacts although portions of northwest
MN could see some drifting snow during the afternoon commute. Any
restrictions to visibility should be widely isolated. Colder
overnight lows in the low teens to around ten in eastern North
Dakota...and approaching zero in the far east...with early
Saturday morning apparent temps approaching 10 below in
Baudette/Fosston/Bemidji areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Northerly flow aloft continues as the pattern undergoes very little
change. Expect an upper wave propagating through the region every
few days, with light snow and stronger winds (blowing snow) the main
impacts. The strongest signal for higher impact weather is Sunday
afternoon/overnight. ECMWF is further west with the track of this
system than other guidance, and there is large spread in ensemble
guidance, so predictability still low. With that said, there are
some hints for banding potential (heavier snow) and stronger winds,
so potential for a higher impact event.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Predominantly MVFR in the valley and IFR east of the valley this
morning with snow showers moving into BJI area this afternoon.
Expect both breaks and tempo groups down one cig category through
00Z...including DVL (possibly areas of MVFR moving through the
area today). Westerly winds will become breezy from the northwest
during the afternoon.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Speicher



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