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000
FXUS63 KFGF 161738
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ONLY MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST UPDATE. CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS
FA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REALIZED. SHRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE FA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WEAK
IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN UPPER LOW RIDES ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHEAR/CAPE PRETTY WEAK SO THUNDER LIKELY TO
BE MORE ISOLATED. FARTHER SOUTH INSTABILITY AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD
INTO N CENTRAL SD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING NORTH FROM CENTRAL
SD T COMPLEX MAY INTERACT WITH APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH TO
INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS N CENTRAL SD WHICH WOULD PROPAGATE
EASTWARD CLOSE TO SOUTHERN FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THIS
HANDLED WELL BY CURRENT POPS SO NO CHANGES MADE OTHER THAN TO
ISOLATE THE THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO BEING REACHED ACROSS SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WHILE
DEVELOPING CU AND APPROACHING COLD ADVECTION MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL
HEATING DID RAISE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AREA.
ALSO UPPED WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BASED ON
CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR
RETURNS DELAYED INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BACKED OF ON ANY POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS MORNING. NOT LIKELY TO SEE ANY SHRA
DEVELOPING UNTIL AFTERNOON EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR NW CORNER OF FA.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHALLENGES
FOR TODAY WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST N OF YORKTON
SASKATCHEWAN.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND SLIDE TO THE SE TODAY. AS THE
COLD MID LEVELS MOVE OVER THE CWFA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
INSTABILITY/CLOUDS/POPS WILL INCREASE. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA TO PEAK IN COVERAGE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY PEAKS WITH MLCAPE IN THE 400 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHTS SCENARIO.

THE WEAK SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST PUSH OF COOLER BLYR AIR IN THE 00Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME. THIS
COOLER AIR WILL LOWER MONDAY HIGHS A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM
SUNDAY. MONDAY POP POTENTIAL MORE UNCERTAIN AS COLD POOL WILL STILL
BE PRESENT THOUGH SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP THE CHC FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MONDAY NIGHT PRECIP THREAT ENDS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DEPARTS TO
THE SE IN THE 500MB NW FLOW. TUESDAY SFC HIGH TO THE SE WILL
GENERATE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING A SLOW RETURN
OF MOISTURE AND WAA IN THE BLYR. MODELS HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF
WITH THE WEAK WAA...ALONG THE 850MB CONVERGENCE...LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY...THE PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE MODELS ARE
ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRANSITION FROM UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR WEST IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND THERE WILL BE A FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...SO MAINTAINED SOME
LOW POPS THEN. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
ON THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA. NOT SURE OF EXACT PLACEMENT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT MAINTAINED FAIRLY HIGH POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT WITH THE PATTERN SET UP THE WAY IT IS WILL KEEP
THE 30-50 POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR HIGHS BUT LOWS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCT-BKN CU FROM 4-8 KFT AGL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR THROUGH 01-02 UTC. WILL KEEP VICINITY
MENTION AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF/KBJI DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 30
KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.

EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED CEILINGS IN QUESTION
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WI OVERNIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN MODEL RH
VARIATIONS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...ROGERS