Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The chance for strong to severe storms will be the main forecast
challenge for late afternoon into early evening. Currently the
cold front is moving into the Devils Lake region, with fairly
gusty west to northwest winds behind it. Seeing afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points that
have crept above 60F. Looking at the SPC meso page, it shows
1000-1500 J/kg of sfc based CAPE, but mainly right along the front
and behind it. Strong push of 850mb winds into the northern Red
River Valley, where the Mayville radar shows a few small cells. So
far not seeing any enhanced cumulus development along the cold
front, so will continue to watch that too. Otherwise, most of the
high resolution models continue to break out storms along the
front, mainly in the 4 to 6 pm time frame. Most of the activity is
forecast to move east of the FA by 10 pm or so, so not looking at
a prolonged event. The high res models also show just a few
stronger cells and not a widespread event. After the storms move
out, west to northwest winds may be a little gusty into the
early evening, but should die down after sunset. Most of Thursday
looks to be quiet for the FA, although there may be a little pcpn
on the northern and southern fringes. Highs look to be a little
cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

For Thursday night through early next week, the Northern Plains
remain in northwest flow aloft as a trough digs into the eastern
half of the US. Thus rain chances primarily depend on the
propagation of a series of weak shortwaves moving quickly from
Canada to the Midwest. This pattern will yield some showers and
storms on and off through early next week, but poor operational
model agreement makes it difficult to pinpoint timing and location
of rain chances at this point. That being said, the weekend doesn`t
look to be a wash out by any means, and heavy rain or severe storms
are not anticipated due to lack of model agreement on any
significant signal.

The main impact for Friday through Sunday will be cooler weather.
Temperatures for Friday through Sunday will be below normal, with
highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures look to rebound starting
on Monday as an upper ridge builds in from the Northwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cold front will move through by mid afternoon into the evening.
This will bring some thunderstorms to the area, but not confident
any will necessarily hit any of the TAF sites. So at this point
kept anything as VCTS, but did hit the times that it is expected.
For most TAFs it will be a period of about 3-4 hours at most.
Other than thunder, there will be a west to northwest wind shift.
Winds are fairly gusty across western ND behind the front, and
some of this may move into the area briefly behind the cold front,
before winds die down after sunset. Rest of the TAF period looks
pretty quiet.




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