Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221740
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

No updates needed, other than the aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Max temps this afternoon and possible elevated convection
overnight the challenge for today. Low level WAA ongoing this
morning across the Northern Plains with 925mb winds southerly at
30 to 40 kts. These winds will lessen this morning, down around
20kts, but still be responsible for bringing 925mb temps into the
25 to 30C range this afternoon. Will raise max temps up a couple
more degrees and bring low 90s into the south with near 90F in
the valley FAR to GFK. This elevated warm layer is expected to cap
convection for the overnight with just a slight chance of an
elevated storm kept in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Fropa begins to push into the FA on Tuesday afternoon with another
warm day ahead of the front as airmass remains unchanged, so will
go with another round of low 90s in the south and near 90 up the
central valley into NW MN as the cold front is progged to push into
the DVL BSN a bit earlier than previous model solns. amount of
organized convection breaking out along the front remains in
question with bulk shear values ahead of the front an unimpressive
20 kts or less. Instability remains somewhat questionable as
model ML CAPE values suggest 500 to 1500 j/kg. Expecting storms to
develop along the front while crossing the valley with best
coverage on the MN side of the FA in the 7pm to 10pm time frame.

Much cooler for Wednesday with a shower chance along the
International border where 500mb upper support will track. Max
temps will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler.

Pattern aloft remains generally westerly in the Thursday to
Sunday period. Next short wave due to arrive in the Friday and
Saturday time period along with shower or thunderstorm chances.
00z ECMWF is a bit stronger with 500 mb short wave and a bit
slower vs the more progressive 00z GFS. Grids using a model blend
favoring a bit slower ECMWF soln keeps pops in the fcst a tad
longer than GFS would indicate. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Still have clear skies across the area and south winds are
becoming a little gusty now. A low level jet will get going across
the FA tonight, which may bring isolated showers and tstms to the
area by late evening and overnight. In addition, the low level jet
may also result in some low level wind shear for at least KFAR and
KBJI. Will not mention any pcpn at the TAF sites for now as
confidence is low that any of it will hit any particular site at
this point. It may also bring some mid level clouds by mid to
late evening. A cold front will move into the Red River Valley by
around 18z Tue, bringing a wind switch to KDVL by late morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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