Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 080455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1055 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Very little change expected in the overall large scale pattern over
the next week.  With the upper ridge remaining across the west and
troughing across the east, middle section of the country is stuck in
persistent northwest flow.  Models suggest low lying stratus well to
the north in southern Canada will work south into the area late
tonight into Friday.  Will be hard to shake this cloud cover
throughout the day on Friday- especially east of the James River
Valley. Models suggest a short wave dropping down through Minnesota
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening cloud lead to some light
precipitation in southwest Minnesota.  Some question as to whether
the dendritic layer would be saturated, so left mix of possibly light
freezing drizzle/snow in the forecast near Windom through the early
evening hours.  Dynamic focus appears to be farther to the east, so
expect any precipitation to be very light. Disturbance moves through
fairly quickly with skies gradually clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Northwest flow remains through the extended. Temperatures briefly
warm on Sunday as flow turns more westerly. 925 hpa warm above
normal leading to temporary melting across the area.  However, just
as quickly as temperatures warm, temperatures cool and the first
half of the week looks to be near to slightly above normal. Have
raised winds through much of the forecast, but have not modified
pops given the inconsistencies amongst the various model


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

The main impact will be low ceilings as models suggest low
clouds/stratus moving southeast into the area behind the front.
Therefore, MVFR-IFR conditions are expected after 12Z Friday
through early evening. Then, gusty northwest winds to 25 knots
return in the evening hours.




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