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000
FXUS63 KFSD 040454
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

ONE WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THUS WILL KEEP OUT ANY POPS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME FLURRIES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHER QUESTION TONIGHT IS WHETHER WE SEE ANY LOW STRATUS FORM.
NAM..GFS...HRRR AND RAP ALL SHOW A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL...AS LOW
LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO OUR COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER
NOTHING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...AND THE GEM AND ECMWF SEEM A LITTLE
LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE STRATUS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. INITIALLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY AS
THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EXIT LATER
TONIGHT. IF STRATUS IS NOT AROUND OR EXITS...COULD SEE SOME SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES BY MORNING. HOWEVER IF STRATUS STICKS AROUND READINGS
WOULD BE STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. FOR NOW
WILL GO THE MIDDLE GROUND...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL VERIFY.

TOMORROW WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE SLOW WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND AN EASTERLY WIND
AROUND 10 MPH. ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRETTY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BEING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS LOOKS PRETTY LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW AFTER WE
SATURATE THE INITIALLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS
THAT WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF SNOW FORM ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BEST CHANCE ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO
SPENCER IOWA LINE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER PV ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTION. 12Z NAM SEEMED TOO SLOW AND THUS WAS NOT
USED...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF SEEMING LIKE THE WAY
TO GO. GIVEN THE PERIOD OF PRETTY GOOD OMEGA...THE HIGHER QPF OF THE
HI RES MODELS AND GEM DOES SEEM POSSIBLE. SO DID TREND QPF UP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 18Z NAM HAS ACTUALLY TRENDED TOWARDS THE
OTHER MODELS...AND NOW MATCHES THE FORECAST PRETTY WELL. THINKING WE
SEE AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SOMEWHERE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE
CURRENT BEST GUESS BEING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
COUNTIES...WITH GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH ELSEWHERE. MODELS TODAY HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST WITH QPF INTO THE AREA OF BETTER
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THESE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FALL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...ALLOWING THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF TO COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...KEEPING PREVENTING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PUT A CAP ON THE WARMING ON WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE 20S WITH SOME LOW 30S IN
SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FURTHER BOLSTERING
READINGS DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GEM AND
GFS...BUT ALL MODELS DO TRACK THE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF...BUT EVEN HERE MID
LEVELS REMAIN PRETTY DRY. WILL LEAVE ONLY MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW...BUT MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX WITH FAIRLY MILD MID/LOW LEVELS AND SUB FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.

THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOW
TO MID 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH APPEARS AS THOUGH ATMOSPHERE WILL SATURATE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL AT BOTH KHON AND KFSD AROUND 18Z...AND
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS KSUX. HEAVIEST SNOW AT THIS POINT
APPEARS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH AND EAST OF KFSD AND KHON...WHERE
VISIBILITY MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. WEAK LIFT
LINGERS INTO TUESDAY EVENING...SO HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT ON
WHEN THE SNOW WILL STOP.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...