497
FXUS63 KFSD 080833
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
333 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light winds overnight will promote areas of locally dense fog
  mainly west of I-29 to start the day. Visibilities of a mile
  or less will persist through the mid-morning.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms likely return from
  Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While the risk for
  stronger storms is low, locally heavy downpours will be
  possible.

- Additional chances for showers and storms will continue into
  the late week with the focus being between Thursday and
  Friday. Mixed storm modes could bring a variety of severe
  weather risk, but slower storm motions may also bring a
  locally heavy rain risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: A mostly quiet day ahead! Taking a look across the
area, we`re continuing to gradually break free from the cloud cover
this morning with clearer conditions returning northwest of a Wagner
to Sioux Falls to Tracy, MN line. With lingering moisture from
recent rainfall and lighter surface winds, we`re already starting to
see some patchy areas of locally dense fog develop along the U.S.
Highway-14 corridor this morning. While widespread development is
not expect, visibilities of a mile or less will be possible mostly
across southeastern SD through the mid-morning. With this in mind,
make sure to increase those following distance and slow down when
making those morning commutes! From here, another warm and quiet day
is ahead as high peak in the low to upper 80s this afternoon. Expect
the mostly quieter conditions to carry over into overnight hours
temperatures gradually decrease into the low to mid 50s for the
night. Lastly, could see a few "popcorn" showers develop across
southcentral SD late Tuesday night as the nose of an upper-level jet
interacts with some lingering pieces of vorticity. While any
accumulations will likely be limited, expect this activity to
develop between midnight and 6 am on Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Looking into the midweek, an active pattern
returns aloft as weak ridging gradually breaks down over the western
CONUS. With the return of southerly surface winds by Wednesday and
strengthening warm air advection (WAA) aloft, expect conditions to
trend warmer with highs likely peaking in the 80s and low 90s. From
here, the focus turns towards the overnight hours as a quick mid-
level wave pushes across the state and intersects a warm front
triggering a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across central
and southcentral SD. While this developing activity will have access
to a decently unstable environment with 1000-1800 J/kg of instability
and 25-35 kts of bulk shear, model soundings show growing inhibition
at the surface due to the lack of diurnal heating. With this in
mind, unless this activity can manage to stay elevated; expect
any lingering showers/storms to struggle and gradually weaken as
they progress southeastwards throughout the night.

By Thursday, could see some scattered activity persist
during the day as little piece of vorticity interact with a
lingering surface boundary. However, the main focus continues to
be on the evening to overnight hours as a strengthening
shortwave ejects out of the Rockies and lifts through our area.
While there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the
evolution of this system, the high CAPE/low shear environment
ahead of this system; will likely support an isolated to
scattered severe risk with stronger storms potentially develop
strong cold pools. As instability wanes overnight, slower storm
motions along with PWATs between 1.50 to 1.75 inches will
promote a locally heavy rainfall risk into Friday. Lastly, given
the increasing precipitation chances; expect temperatures to
sit near to just below normal with highs in the 70s and 80s
during the latter parts of the week.

SATURDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, long-range
guidance begins to diverge in terms of the location/timing of
synoptic scale features. However, the overall pattern does favor
troughing somewhere over the northern plains. With this in mind,
could see some spotty precipitation chances (<20%) on Saturday with
mostly quiet conditions returning through Monday. Otherwise, expect
conditions to trend warmer heading into the start of the week with
highs in the mid 80s to low 90s between Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Light winds overnight could result in patchy fog formation
across the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. Light winds
will continue on Tuesday with VFR conditions expected through
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...JM