Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 030405
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE TO WANE
AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS THE SHORTWAVES EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH...EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE THE RAIN FELL
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FROM 11-13Z.  EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND
BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  WILL LIKELY BE SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...BUT HAVE DROPPED MENTION OF ANY POPS TOMORROW WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN.  WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...SHOULD BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING TO DEVELOP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY IN THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED FOCUSES ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT PRIMARILY SUNDAY
EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE THE 4TH OF
JULY. MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER. HOWEVER...NO STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM AT THE SFC
IS EVIDENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE A LOW END POP FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OUT WEST.

BY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS...SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO HAVE A FEW DAYBREAK
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS EML LIFTS NORTHWARD. BY THE
AFTERNOON...SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE...WITH 2-
3K MLCAPE VALUES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST FOCUS FOR
FORCING SHOULD BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING AS AND UPR JET STREAK ENTERS
THE PLAINS...BUT FOR THE ONSET OF THE EVENT REMAINS A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE. NEVERTHELESS...WOULD ANTICIPATE A SVR WEATHER
RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MID-WEEK.  A MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE...QUESTION
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST. STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO AREA AMIDST A MYRIAD OF MID-LVL WAVES ZIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG DEVELOP
AFTER 08Z-09Z. WITH SHORT NIGHT...PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VISIBILITY MAY
ONLY LAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY IN 10Z-13Z WINDOW. WILL
HOLD AT MVFR VISIBILITY RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. COULD
SEE SMOKE LAYER ALOFT EXPAND OVER THE AREA AGAIN...THOUGH LEVEL OF
SMOKE LAYER UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH


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