Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS63 KFSD 242029
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
229 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

System moving quickly through with a lot less punch than expected. A
fairly widespread 1-3 inches of snow, most closer to 1 inch but
along highway 14 into parts of southwest MN there will likely be
some 3-5 inch reports as the band was stronger and slowed a bit
there. Dropped the warning this morning and will be trimming the
advisory from the southwest by mid afternoon. Most of the
accumulating snow should be done in southwest MN by early evening as
the warm advection shifts east and the drier air aloft moves in.

A fairly stout westerly gradient will develop overnight and continue
into Sunday, but for now not anticipating a lot in the way of
blowing snow. Especially since amounts are on the lower side of
expectations. Do not doubt there will be some minor drifting and
refreezing though, especially across north/south roads, as winds
will gust to 25 mph at times. Lows should not be too cold tonight
with some wind in place so aiming for about 10 to 15 with wind
chills about zero to 5 below.

This system does not have much cold air with it so highs on Sunday
will be mild with quite a bit of sunshine. Highs will pretty much be
30 to 35 in most spots.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Monday into Tuesday both look to be on the mild side with west to
southwest flow aloft. Both days should be partly cloudy and
provide some decent melting. Lows in the single digits and teens
with highs in the 30s to lower 40s.

The models are beginning to come into some agreement for Wednesday.
Obviously too early to get into any details but could be our next
snowmaker. May be fighting some slightly milder temperatures in
parts of northwest Iowa but overall should be a snow threat for
most. Once this system exits on Thursday mild air will fill in
behind with highs in the 30s Thursday through Saturday as ridging
aloft builds through. All models indicating a large scale trough
digging across the Rockies and spreading out onto the Plains
Saturday into Sunday that could provide some changing weather into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Messy start to the aviation period that will improve over time. The
quick moving batch of snow that is impacting the TAF sites as of
late morning will exit just as quickly. While light snow and IFR
and lower ceilings could hang around thru the afternoon hours, the
reduced visibilities from falling snow should quickly improve at
KSUX and KFSD over the next hour or two, with KHON seeing
visibility improvement by mid afternoon. Ceiling restrictions will
remain until this evening before clearing in the stratus is
expected from west to east with VFR conditions expected
thereafter.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for SDZ039-
     040-054>056-061-062-066-067.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ071-
     097-098.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ072-
     080-081-089-090.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-022.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Kalin



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.