Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFSD 261958
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL LIFT
AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW WHERE GREATER CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S. THESE DIURNALLY BASED SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE STORM
LAKE AND IDA GROVE AREAS WHERE A BIT MORE INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG
THE 825 MB WIND SHIFT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WHILE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND WESTERLY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. A PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY IS ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND AMPLE SUNSHINE LEADING
TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. FOLLOWED THE BIAS CORRECTED
CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS WILL BE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS A MODESTLY
DEVELOPING THERMAL GRADIENT/WARM ADVECTION/ AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP
SLOWLY OVER THE AREA. EVENTUALLY THE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER. THIS PATTERN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
AND STAY...WITH ILL DEFINED INCREASES AND DECREASES...UNTIL A DECENT
SHORT WAVE FORCES A COLD FRONT THROUGH BY FRIDAY. WOULD LIKE TO PEAK
POPS AT HIGHER THAN CHANCE TO LIKELY BUT MODELS ARE BOTH ILL DEFINES
AND IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE PEAKING OF VARIOUS PARAMETERS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND ON BOTH SIDES...BUT MODELS ARE ALSO IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

MILD/WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPE3CTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHTS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE 80-ISH FOR HIGHS AND FRIDAY
TURNING COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CLOUDS/RAIN.

THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH A COOL START FOLLOWED
BY MODEST BUT STEADY WARMING AS A DIGGING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
FORCES ROCKIES TO WESTERN PLAINS RIDGING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN AT MOST IN A SPOTTY FASHION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY LOOKS TIMED FOR JUST AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING MID
AND LATE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHES. 60S HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO WARM TO 70S AND LOWER 80S BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION REMAINS BLANKETED UNDER A
LARGE AREA OF MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND WILL GRADUALLY SPIN OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY CEILINGS SCATTER OUT TO THE WEST AND
SHOULD LIFT INTO LOW END VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH RES MODELS
AND THE NAM DO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
CLEARING AREA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VFR.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.