Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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148
FXUS63 KFSD 010322
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1022 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper low continues to track eastward across the Dakotas this
afternoon, and will drag a secondary cold front through the forecast
area later this evening. While the chances are low, can`t rule out
an isolated shower or sprinkles along this boundary this evening.
Winds will remain rather gusty into the early evening, with
persistent gusts to 25 knots possible over central SD.

Tonight: Broken mid-lvl clouds will persist across the area, with a
breezy west to northwest wind through the night.

Wednesday: With the upper low continuing its slow track eastward and
into the Great Lakes region during the day, anticipating a rapid
strato-cu layer developing by mid-day. Again, would not rule out a
sprinkle along the Buffalo Ridge, but most of the area will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Good radiative conditions expected Wednesday night with surface
ridge across the area.  Have continued to trend towards cooler
guidance values especially across the north where winds will be
light throughout the night.

Thursday continue to looks tricky in terms of convection.  There is
some weak warm air advection that may lead to some elevated
convection along the Missouri River Valley in the morning, but then
the atmosphere appears to become capped off.  As warm front
approaches from the south, could see a few isolated storms develop
across the southern fringes of the forecast area.  Chances increase
Thursday night into Friday morning as warm front lifts north and 850
theta-e advection increases. Lifting from near 850 mb maximizes
CAPE profile of 500-1500 j/kg.  Good speed and directional shear
leads to increasing 1-6 km bulk shear vectors of near 40 knots.
While the instability is not all that strong, shear could be enough
to result in some marginally severe hail.

Have lingered pops across eastern portions of the forecast area
Friday morning...but Friday afternoon looks to be another good set
up for storms as cold front moves through the area. Not a lot of
shear in the lower levels, but stronger speed shear aloft combined
with instability of 1500-200 J/kg of CAPE may result in a few severe
storms.

Cooler and drier weekend expected behind the front as upper level
ridge gradually builds into the region.  This pattern should allow
for gradually rising temperatures into the middle of next week.
Saturday looks mixy..bringing down strong northwest flow down from
aloft to the surface.  Tuesday also looks breezy out of the south
ahead of disorganized disturbance translating from west to east
across the central portions of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1021 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JM



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