Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 260835
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK WAVE. COULD SEE SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY LINGER IN OUR SOUTHEAST JUST PAST 12Z...BUT OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE MAINLY DRY MORNING. QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS WHETHER
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND
UNCAPPED AIR MASS FROM PRODUCING SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SEEING ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM MODELS TO CARRY A SMALL
POP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 80...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER
50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A LARGE SCALE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LVL PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE
ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A SHARP MID-LVL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RECORD TEMPERATURES TO AREAS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SHARP
NWLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A
TRAIN OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RACING THROUGH THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK ALL THE WHILE PRODUCING A DAILY GRADIENT OF WARM AIR FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA.

THE UPCOMING WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS...WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY...AND THE
ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURRING IN A BRIEF WINDOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ND AND NWRN MN...DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
BE FOCUSED EAST OF I-29...ACROSS AREAS OF SW MN AND NW IA INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY...BUT
WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...MOST AREAS WILL MIX INTO THE 80S BY
THE AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AS A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE NWRLY
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TUESDAY NIGHTS SHORTWAVE
LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL COOLER LOW-LVL TEMPS INTO THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY ARRIVES.

MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS TIMING OF ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL REMAIN TROUBLESOME IN GUIDANCE.  WILL MAINTAIN
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR.
LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN NORTH NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...


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