Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 182345
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
AXIS/WARM FRONT SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING GRADUALLY WARMING LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS AN INCREASING WIND FIELD. THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT SO SOME OF THE WIND WILL NOT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA FROM ABOUT 9Z THROUGH
15Z WHERE SOME OF THESE WINDS COULD SURFACE...RESULTING IN A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY MILD DAY ON SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH GOOD MIXING
SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF 40 DEGREES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND
WITH COOLING THERMAL PROFILES...HIGHS WILL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OVER SUNDAYS...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH. IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY IN OUR
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
MONDAY...PERHAPS JUST A TOUCH COOLER IN OUR EAST WHERE MIXING WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL LOWER 60S FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRIVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THEY HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH GENERALLY SPLITTING THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. AS A RESULT THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...BUT
LOOKS TO BE LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHENARD


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