Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 250416

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1016 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Cool air will spill into the area late this afternoon and evening
along with breezy conditions. The stronger pressure gradient will
remain in place into the evening, then slacken later tonight. This
brings a bit of a forecast challenge as dry air supports chilly lows
but if winds remain higher temperatures will not fall as far. Will
shoot for upper 20s to mid 30s across the area with the likeliest
milder readings over parts of southwest MN and northwest IA.

Weak upper level ridging will work across the Plains Saturday into
Sunday which will bring gradually warmer air back by Sunday and
Monday. Saturday should be a cool day but winds will be on the lower
side and sunshine should be abundant. Highs will range from 45 to 50
in southwest MN to the mid 50s in south central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Sunday looks to be another mild day with some upside to warming
if the inversion can be broken. Should easily get into the 50s in
all locations with a chance to be about 5 degrees warmer if we can
mix to 850-900mb. The sun angle this time of the year is always a
challenge for deeper mixing without a wave to help force it.
Regardless should be a very nice day.

Sunday night into Monday the pressure gradient will increase from
the south bringing stronger winds back to the area. This is in
response to a strong jet max spreading across the western High
Plains. The expected timing of the pre frontal trough supports very
mild high temperatures and bumped up highs about 3-5 degrees in
response to this and our very dry ground. Also increased winds as
the superblend is frequently to light on strong pressure gradient

Models continue to trend towards keep the bulk of the activity to
the south of the area, so see no reason to change the small chance
for rain across northwest IA on Wednesday.

After this trough passes another broader and unfocused trough will
pass and bring slightly cooler air to the area, but temperatures
still expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1016 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.




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