Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 042012
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT AND
WINDS TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHER THAN THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AND WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD LEAD INTO A PLEASANT EVENING AND WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LOWER
END CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE WEATHER PATTER SEEMS TO BE UNDERGOING SOMEWHAT OF A
TRANSITION...BUT FOR NOW THE IDEA OF RIDGE FLATTENING WAVES BRINGING
PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL APPLIES TO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEKEND PERIOD. THE EARLY PART OF THIS TIME
HAS ONE SYSTEM EXITING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ANOTHER WAVE COMING
IN THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS QUITE AND THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
SEE JUST THE START OF DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST IN THE AREA. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS RIP FOR SCATTERED STORMS...AND THE
MORNING SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL RISK LOOKS OK. PARAMETERS
DO NOT LOOK TOO SCARY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER SUPPORT WHICH COULD
ENCOURAGE A FEW HAILERS/DAMAGING GUSTS. IN ANY EVENT THE TIMING AND
COORDINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODESTLY MILD...AS OPPOSED TO THE COOLER READINGS WE WERE GOING FOR
A DAY OR TWO AGO...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS DRY AS A CANADIAN WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...AND
HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE TOLERABLE WITH A TOUCH OF DRYING BEHIND
THURSDAY SYSTEM. A WEEKEND WAVE SHOULD AGAIN PEAK THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY NEXT TUESDAY IT LOOKS RAIN FREE
AGAIN...THIS TIME PROBABLY ON A LONGER BASIS AS THE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST...SOMETHING MODELS A DAY OR
TWO AGO WERE NOT DOING. EVIDENTLY THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM HELPS KEEP A SOMEWHAT COOLING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA AND PREVENT SIZZLING SUMMER HEAT...BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE THIS COULD DEVELOP RIGHT AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE LOW
AT THIS TIME.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08


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