Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 300842
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GFS/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ADVERTISING A
GENEROUS WARM UP ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ON
WEDNESDAY.

FEATURE OF INTEREST IS SHORTWAVE TROF PROG TO COME ASHORE OVER THE
PAC NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW QUICK INTENSIFICATION...500MB
HGT FALLS AROUND 140M...AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE U.S./CAB BORDER ENSUES THEN WITH
STRONG BNDRY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE CWA DURING THE AFTN
HOURS WILL CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SRN CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING...EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF
STRONG INSTABILITY...CAPE 2500-3000J/KG...AND DEEP LYR SHEAR
MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. WITH BOTH THE
GFS/ECM ADVERTISING POTENTIAL ASCENT ALONG AXIS OF 700-500MB
AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POST-FRONTAL POPS OVER THE
SRN CWA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE SRN CWA
WHERE AREA OF 300K UPGLIDE WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH WITH
UPPER SUPPORT VIA SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
ON MON WITH SOME GUSTS LIKELY BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN. A SFC
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL 3 TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COMBINATION OF FINE DRY FUELS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT EXTREME FIRE DANGER OR BEHAVIOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEW IGNITIONS OR CONTROL PROBLEMS
WITH EXISTING FIRES OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. THUS A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
     088>093.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
FIRE WEATHER...DEE


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