Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 011302
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
658 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Early morning water vapor imagery indicates the deep cut off low
over the Ohio Valley continues to slowly lift almost due north
this morning. This system has allowed for low-level moisture to
spread west with a SC deck over the eastern 2/3rd of the FA this
morning. This deck may continue to work a bit farther west before
stalling this morning. Then getting rid of these clouds may be a
problem over the next 24 hours. The surface ridge axis continues
to be over the FA early this morning, and will only slowly
develop east through the weekend. As this occurs though the
northeast and east low-level flow will turn southeast and may tend
to keep this moisture in the Missouri River Valley and points east
today through tonight before slowly scouring out on Sunday as the
gradient starts to increase. We will likely see a decent gradient
in temperatures across the area today with mid and upper 60s over
parts of western IA to the mid and upper 70s in the sunny areas
over the west. Have increased going lows tonight where the clouds
are likely to hang on from the 1st row or two of counties in
Nebraska and east. May again see some light fog develop tonight in
parts of the area. Significant height falls will be moving through
the western US late in the weekend and this should result in
downstream ridging over the area and increasingly warm
temperatures for both Sunday and Monday with conditions remaining
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

The previously mentioned western US height falls and trough will
head for the Plains to start the extended period. There remains
some differences between the operational GFS/EC/GEM, but even
given these differences it appears that a front will be slowly
making eastward progress through the CWA starting on Tuesday and
finally exiting sometime on Wednesday. Strong low to mid level WAA
is still indicated on Monday night and should lead to some showers
and maybe an isolated thunderstorm starting in the west after
midnight, and shifting eastward to near the river by 12Z Tuesday.
Given the low-level jet indicated in the models through the day on
Tuesday some of this activity will likely continue through the
day. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible along the
front by afternoon as well. Substandard moisture quality and
marginal lapse-rates will likely limit overall intensity of
thunderstorms despite a fairly strong wind field. Even with
limited moisture return, large-scale forcing during the period
warrants likely pops Tuesday into Tuesday night. Once the front
exits the area on Wednesday we should see a dry end to the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Low level moisture transport and weak isentropic upglide 290-292K
on the anti-cyclonic shear side of Midwest upper low, kept MVFR
ceilings entrenched Missouri Valley eastward overnight, affecting
KOMA TAF site. Upper low moves slowly east today, so expect cloud
cover to linger; however, diurnal mixing should help ceilings rise
into low-end VFR range by late morning to early afternoon. Expect
VFR conditions to continue through the remainder of TAF period.

Further west, thin veil of cirrus inhibiting maximum radiational
cooling, but there remains a possibility of fog development at
KLNK and KOFK. Maintained a TEMPO group until 14UTC to account for
a brief period of IFR/MVFR fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected at both sites through the TAF period.

SF

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boustead
LONG TERM...Boustead
AVIATION...Fortin



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