Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240445
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED THE FOLLOWING. STRONGEST 300 MB
WINDS WERE AROUND 120 KNOTS WITH A JETSTREAK MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH A MAX OF AROUND 130 METERS IN WESTERN WYOMING.
THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB WAS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT 850
MB...A NARROW ZONE OF MOISTURE WAS SURGING NORTH INTO NEBRASKA
THAT ORIGINATES IN TEXAS.

AS OF 2 PM...CAP WAS WEAKENING TO OUR WEST AND STORMS SHOULD START TO
FIRE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT STORMS INITIALLY TO STAY MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN PUSH EASTWARD. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DEFINED
BY LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS GOOD AND DOES AFFECT
PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHEST THREAT THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR... WITH AMOUNTS
OVER ONE INCH... AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.50 INCHES. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST OF
HIGHWAY 81 TO MID 50S NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER.

THURSDAY...SOME LIGHT PCPN MAY LINGER IN OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE
MORNING BUT THE AFTN SHOULD BE DRY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP. JUST LOW LOW THEY DROP WILL BE
IMPORTANT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW WE DO EXPECT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
NOT OCCUR AND DEWPOINTS END UP LOWER...EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE. THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THAT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 60S OR AROUND 70.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS PCPN CHANCES WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 PERCENT. SOME
STORMS MAY FIRE UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER
EASTERN KANSAS OR POSSIBLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA AS
HINTED AT BY THE NAM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON TSTM
CHANCES UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABLILITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGH POPS UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THINGS ARE SIMILAR IN THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD...WE EXPECT A TROUGH AT 500 MB TO BE OVER
THE ROCKIES...WITH TENDENCY FOR A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.

THE 12Z CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS. THAT TREND ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHEN A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS
BORDER. EVEN AROUND THE WHOLE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED...WHICH WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSION OF THINGS. SO...WILL INTRODUCE SMALL PCPN CHANCES
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN HOLD ONTO
POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
WE SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS...BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SHRA ACTIVITY WAS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AREA COVERAGE OVER ERN
NEB PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LIKELY THAT THE PCPN ACTIVITY WILL
ENDURE THOUGH AT LEAST 12Z THURS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BY LATE MORNING. HAVE
TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE BUT MENTION NOTHING LESS THAN MVFR
CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU ERN NEB SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA TWD SUNRISE...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS PREVAILING WELL
INTO THURS AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE



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