Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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781
FXUS63 KOAX 231703
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Relatively cool and tranquil weather is slated for this weekend.

Cold front had moved south of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa
early Friday morning, however a few showers and thunderstorms
trailed the front, affecting southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
through about 4 AM. More showers were noted across western and
central Nebraska drifting to the east. These were tied to mid level
shortwave dropping southeast through the Northern High Plains. Short
range hi-res models were picking up on this activity, and most drag
at least isolated showers into eastern Nebraska this morning before
shortwave passes by around 18Z.

Otherwise precipitation chances are rather slim through the weekend
as moisture is scoured out behind exiting shortwave, and persistent
northwest flow at the surface and aloft keep it that way. That flow
will also maintain a relatively cool airmass in the Plains as
several weak cool fronts settle into the region. 850 temps remain a
couple of degrees either side of 10C ahead of and behind those
fronts, suggesting surface temps in the 70s for afternoon highs each
day today through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A return to more June-like weather begins to take shape next week
when precipitation chances return and we see temperatures rebound
back into the 80s. Core of northwest mid level flow will work east
of our area by Monday night with shortwave ridge axis nosing in on
Tuesday. That will be short-lived as more zonal flow takes over
Tuesday night through Thursday as trough in central Canada begins to
settle south. Surface high pressure over the Plains into early
Monday will slide east, allowing southerly low level flow to begin
northward push of higher dew points. Precipitation chances begin as
early as Monday when ECMWF paints a swath of QPF across eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa when right entrance region of mid level
jet streak induces weak lift on nose of returning moisture. Better
chances begin Monday night in our west as low level jet kicks in
there, with a gradual eastward expansion of those higher winds
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Therefore generally late night
and early morning convection should be favored in this regime. By
Thursday, a weak frontal boundary settles into the region, providing
a focus for afternoon convection then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A fast-moving shortwave trough traversing the mid MO Valley has
brought isolated to widely scattered showers to the region which
should end at KOMA and KLNK within the next hour or two.
Otherwise, expect gusty northwest winds to diminish by early
evening with a decrease in mid and high-level clouds.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dergan
LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Mead



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