Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC JUST WEST OF MEXICO...AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 50KTS NEAR
27000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX...ALTHOUGH IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A STRONGER WIND FIELD EXISTS THROUGH
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE NEAR 3000FT AGL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...MOVING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF THIS
WRITING THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR AREA AND A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD HAS OVERTAKEN OUR AREA AS
A RESULT.

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL SUGGEST THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHTEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVERTAKING OUR AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH
TODAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FORM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

SO FAR THIS MORNING A SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-30KTS HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA POST-FROPA WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
40KTS IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OF ~30UBAR/KM
WILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A DECREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. GIVEN
THIS...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT A WEAKENING WIND FIELD WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE
FORECAST. THAT SAID...A SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 30KTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH...THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AND AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE HWO.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OMEGA WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR SNOW FLURRY THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z AS THE WAVE CLEARS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SEEMS VERY LOW NOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COOLER DAY WILL PRESENT ITSELF TO THE REGION TODAY AS A COOLER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION...WITH GUIDANCE
PROVIDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. THE INTRODUCTION
OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD TONIGHT SHOULD
PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURE READINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE READINGS COULD
HOLD STEADY IF NOT INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 30 BUT AGAIN...MANY OF THESE
LOWS COULD BE SET PRIOR TO 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT A BAND OF
STRATUS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO BOTH TAF
SITES FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING.

A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 3000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE AT KEAR...AND PERHAPS UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY AT KGRI. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A BAND OF STRATUS WILL
PROMOTE AN MVFR CEILING NEAR 2000FT AGL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR
THIS STRATUS TO MATERIALIZE...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. SO ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT ALTHOUGH THE KGRI TAF SHOWS
MVFR CONDITIONS 11-19Z...AND THE KEAR TAF SHOWS MVFR CONDITIONS
12-14Z...THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS TRENDS REVEAL
THEMSELVES LATER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH A GENERAL WEAKENING
IN THE WIND FIELD MAGNITUDE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED WIND OF 20-25KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35KTS...ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. A STRONG WIND
FIELD...NEAR 50KTS...WILL ALSO EXIST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TONIGHT BUT THANKFULLY...THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM BEING REALIZED AT
EITHER TAF SITE THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MONDAY AFTERNOON: AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...THE NOTABLE WARM-UP BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY STILL APPEARS
ON TRACK TO RESULT IN AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LEXINGTON-FRANKLIN-OSBORNE LINE. ALTHOUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WIND AT
LEAST 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH...ONLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHWESTERN AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) DROP
AS LOW AS THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE...THUS QUALIFYING FOR NEAR-
CRITICAL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. LATER
FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS...AS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST TEMPS AND/OR
SLIGHT DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS COULD PUSH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BELOW 20 PERCENT...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP RH TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAINLY
WITHIN FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS COUNTIES...THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN MONDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ONLY
FORECAST TO GUST UP TO AROUND 15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH


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