Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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845
FXUS63 KGID 060556
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THERE ARE STILL A FEW RETURNS ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE
NOT FOUND ANY GROUND TRUTH UNDER THEM TO HAVE ANY LIGHT SNOW. IF
THERE IS EXPECT ONLY FLURRIES AT MOST. IT WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY
THAT IT IS THE RADAR ON MID LEVEL CLOUDS SINCE THAT IS WHAT IS BEING
REPORTED.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO WEST DURING THE
NIGHT. WITH A BIT OF SNOW MELTING THIS AFTERNOON THE DEW POINTS HAVE
RISEN AND WE HAVE FAIRLY SMALL DEW POINT SPREADS THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FOG. WITH HIGH DEW
POINTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FALLING LOWER THAN CURRENT
DEW POINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IT WOULD SEEM LIKE FOG
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS GOOD FOR FOG. HAVE PUT A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN FOR THE EAST WHERE THERE WOULD BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS CLOSE BY WHICH WOULD HELP FOR FOG FORMATION.

SATURDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. ON THE WARM
SIDE...THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY...WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE WEST AND HAVE SOME DOWN SLOPE TO THEM...THERE IS WARM ADVECTION
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM UP. ALL OF THAT WOULD LEAD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE COOLER SIDE...WE HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FIELD ACROSS ALL BUT A VERY SMALL PART OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE A BALANCING ACT ON HOW WARM THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL GET. THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO TELL WHICH OF THE
FORCES WILL WIN. HAVE KEPT ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND WENT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEP SNOW PACK OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
AT LEAST CAUSE THERE TO BE A STRUGGLE TO WARM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

DESPITE THE DEEP SNOW COVER IT APPEARS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT ABOVE FREEZING ON MOST DAYS ALLOWING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS OF STEADY SNOW MELT. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE HOW QUICKLY
WILL THE SNOW MELT AND HOW MUCH WILL THE SNOW COVER KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD.

SUNDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45
MPH. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE AREA ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT GIVEN THE
SNOW COVER DO NOT EXPECT IT TO GET ABOVE THE MID 30S...IF EVEN THAT
WARM. THE WIND WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COLDER THAN IT REALLY IS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A JET STREAK NOSING INTO
THE AREA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINING IN COLDER AIR.
THIS IS WHEN WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES...PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COOLER DAYS OF THE WEEK AND HIGHS
ACROSS MOST NEBRASKA ZONES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT IT WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AND AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER PATTERN. AM ALWAYS A BIT SKEPTICAL OF WARM
HIGHS IN DAYS 4-7 WHEN WE HAVE A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AT SOME POINT ONCE WE
START MELTING A LOT OF SNOW THAT THEN COULD HAMPER THE OVERALL WARM-
UP. WENT BELOW SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IN THE TRI-CITIES WHERE WE HAVE
THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOME STRATUS HANGING AROUND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST...BUT
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS IS ON ITS WAY OUT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PAST THE FIRST HOUR. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE AN ISSUE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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