Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 071841
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE WIND TODAY/TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING THROUGH
TODAY. NORMALLY THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD CONJURE UP WIND GUSTS OF
PERHAPS 45 TO 55 MPH...BUT THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP TAMP THIS
DOWN...AND I EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH...AND SAME GOES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH I AM EXPECTING TO FALL
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...RATHER THAN 25 TO 35 MPH. I AM GOING
WITH PEAK WINDS SIMILAR TO MAV GUIDANCE HERE AS IT WOULD BE QUITE
DIFFICULT TO GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SUCH A THICK LAYER OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND. MIXING WILL JUST NOT BE VERY EFFICIENT. THIS IS BASED
ON PREVIOUS SITUATION ENCOUNTERED WITH SIMILAR SCENARIOS. I DID
ACTUALLY GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS FOR TONIGHT THAN FOR
TODAY IN OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH EXPECTED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED CONSRAW WIND GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD WIND GUST
TOOL. STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE THIS
WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS SNOW ON THE GROUND SEEMS GENERALLY QUITE
HEAVY...I OPTED TO KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST AS THERE WERE SOME
REPORTS OF A LITTLE DRIFTING SATURDAY...AND WIND WILL BE STRONGER
TODAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...I GENERALLY WENT WITH RECENT NUMERICAL MODEL
PERFORMANCE AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW FIELD ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING...THE PLAINS ARE SITTING UNDER N/NWRLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION...AND HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
FLURRIES IN FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.
AT THE SFC...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA...DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...AS MODELS SHOW
THE PATTERN STARTING TO RELAX A BIT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HASNT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
30S.

TUES/WED...THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...MODELS SHOWING LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION ESP THROUGH
TUES/TUES NIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION SHOWN THROUGH
WED. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THE DRY FORECAST...WHILE THERE
DOESNT LOOK TO BE ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING ESP NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA VIA THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE AREA. EXPECTING A
BUMP UP IN TEMPS BOTH DAYS AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST...30S/40S IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS...BUT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF LINGERING SNOW COVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE.

WHILE NOT AS AMPLIFIED...THE NWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LIKE TUE/WED...THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT ANOTHER BOUT OF UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
ENERGY WILL BRING QPF CLOSE TO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT MODELS CONTINUE KEEPING THINGS TO THE NORTH...SO NO POPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS. STILL
NOT LOOKING TO BE ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN TEMPS THURS-SAT...MID
30S/NEAR 40 IN THE EAST TO MID/UPPER 40S FURTHER WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LEAVING CEILING AND WIND AS THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES.

WINDS: THIS WILL BE A RATHER WINDY PERIOD OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL-STRONGEST SPEEDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR RIGHT AWAY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30KT AND GUSTS
POSSIBLY NEARING 40KT...TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING SHOULD STILL FEATURE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER YET STRONG WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING AROUND 50-55KT...THE
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR (LLWS) JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT JUSTIFY A
FORMAL TAF MENTION. SOMETHING FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THOUGH.

CEILING: ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BECOMES A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE (ESPECIALLY AT KGRI). VARIOUS MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT AT THE VERY LEAST...A LOW-END VFR CEILING SHOULD MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST AFFECT KGRI
BUT MAY OR MAY NOT REACH AS FAR WEST AS KEAR. THERE ARE ALSO
SUGGESTIONS THAT SOME OF THIS CLOUD DECK COULD LOWER INTO HIGH-END
MVFR TERRITORY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY "HINTED" AT THIS MVFR
POSSIBILITY WITH A "SCT025" MENTION. AGAIN...SOMETHING THE NEXT
FEW TAF CYCLES WILL NEED TO CLOSELY EXAMINE.

LASTLY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
ROGUE FLURRY/SNOW SHOWER COULD AFFECT MAINLY KGRI...HAVE OMITTED
ANY PRECIP MENTION AS BETTER CHANCES FOR PASSING SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD FOCUS 50-100+ MILES TO THE EAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.