Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 181753
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...SET UP BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. HAD A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES EARLIER TONIGHT...DRIVEN BY AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER ONTARIO AND INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES...WHILE LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY AFFECT
THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.
THE RESULT IS E/SERLY WINDS...THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...SO WINDS ARE LIGHT...IF NOT CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. AS DISCUSSED WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...FOG AND
STRATUS IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
MANY AUTOMATED SITES ARE DROPPING NEAR OR TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE...AND LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE...SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS FOR LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS.

THE BRUNT OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE
OF THE CWA...AND OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/TSTORM THIS MORNING...KEPT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM DRY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CURRENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING IS SET UP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...A FEW MODELS TRY TO DEPICT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE NOSE OF AN INCREASED
LLJ SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT
HAPPENING TO INSERT A POP AT THIS POINT.

AT THE SFC...EXPECTING TO SEE A TRANSITION IN WINDS FROM EASTERLY
TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING
UP OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE E/SE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEEDS...WHICH LOOK TO TOP OUT ARND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HOW
QUICKLY THIS MORNINGS FOG AND STRATUS LIFTS MAKES THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR TODAY ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN HIGH SIN THE MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH SOME LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SWRN CORNER.
THOSE CLOUD/FOG TRENDS WILL BE SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO
CLOSELY MONITOR...AND POTENTIALLY MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
HIGHS. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT FALL IN TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.

WHILE THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT AMPLE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
PLAINS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...LIMITING WHAT LOOKED LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY A FEW DAYS AGO.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD AND THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S. AS THIS COLD FRONT THEN MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BE
REALIZED...WITH A FEW STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE...AS THERE WILL BE JUST OVER 1000 JOULES OF
ELEVATED CAPE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 70S TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK AS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
DURING THE WORKWEEK...THE MAIN JET STREAM WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST UNDERCUTS
THE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. AS
THIS LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDWEEK...EXPECT
SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES TO JUSTIFY THE MENTION OF A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ALBEIT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO
REMAIN DRY BASES ON CURRENT GUIDANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SIMILAR FOR THE MOST
PART...HOWEVER...KEAR WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CEILING TO BE BROKEN AROUND 2000 FT FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KGRI WILL MISS OUT ON THESE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT NOT BY TOO MUCH.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WELL...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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