Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 251522
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY ISSUED EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. ONLY MADE A FEW CHANGES WORTH
MENTIONING FOR THIS FIRST DAY SHIFT UPDATE:

1) NOW THAT A LIGHT-BUT-STEADY FRONTOGENETIC RAIN BAND HAS SET UP
IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION MAINLY NEAR THE I-80 AND HIGHWAY 6
CORRIDORS...HAVE GREATLY INCREASED POPS INTO 60-80 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH MID-DAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON...RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN
INCREASING POPS FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE. FOR THE TRI-CITIES AREA...THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY AROUND 2-3 PM AT THE LATEST.
AMOUNT-WISE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF HARDLY ANYBODY SEES MORE THAN
5-10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET.

2) WITH PLENTIFUL MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY
(ALTHOUGH STARTING TO THIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH)...NOT TO MENTION STEADY WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO GO MUCH OF
ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE THEIR
HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...AM STILL
EXPECTING MOST OF THE CWA TO AT LEAST BRIEFLY TOP OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE WITH ANY MID-50S MOST FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHERN KS ZONES...BUT
SOME AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 45...ESPECIALLY COUNTIES IN
NEBRASKA GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AUTOMATED SENSORS AND WEB CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

QUIET BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWING
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA HAS BEEN PRETTY WEAK ALL NIGHT...RESULTING IN LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. FAR W/NWRN LOCATIONS ARE JUST NOW STARTING TO SEE A MORE
W/NWRLY COMPONENT DEVELOP. BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA...IN THE WEST MAINLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH
CENTRAL/ERN LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
SUB-500FT CEILINGS. THE LIGHT WINDS...COOL TEMPS/LOW DPT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE RESULTED IN FOG AFFECTING CENTRAL/ERN
LOCATIONS...WITH A NUMBER OF SITES STILL REPORTING 1/4SM. HAVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT THROUGH 7AM...SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
WEST MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME AS THOSE MORE W/NWRLY
WINDS BUILD FURTHER IN...BUT SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE MORE EASTERN
LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

ONCE THE FOG DIMINISHES...FOCUS FOR TODAY TURNS TO THAT ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW
PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTH...BRINGING N/NWRLY WINDS TO THE ENTIRE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE...WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 MPH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...DRIVEN BY THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
DID ADJUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER POPS...BASED ON THE LATEST
RUN OF MODELS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER W/SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO
LINGER SOME SLIGHT POPS IN FAR SRN PORTION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

LOOKS TO BE A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WONT BE HELPED BY
THE GUSTY WINDS...LOOKING TO END UP BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DID TREND BACK HIGHS A TOUCH...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLING FOR MID/UPPER 40S IN THE E/NE...WITH LOWER/MID 50S FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER COOLER BUT MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...THE AIRMASS MODERATES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN ALOFT TO START OUT THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH FM ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. A
120KT UPPER JET NOSING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN WARMER AIR
TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST MAY GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. PCPN TYPE
WILL BE LIQUID WITH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND MODELS HAVE TRENDED
UP A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS.

A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...AVERAGING IN THE 20S.
ON FRIDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND THE
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE IN RISING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
OUR NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS ON PCPN CHANCES.
THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND THE LATEST NAM
INDICATES LIGHT QPF WEST OF OUR CURRENT POPS AND SUGGESTS TIMING
TOWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING AND THE PLACEMENT...WILL STAY WITH CONSISTENCY AND
LEAVE CURRENT CHCS AS IS UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE WARMER AIRMASS REACHES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
TRENDING UP AGAIN...INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS. THE RIDGE AXIS
DOES BREAK DOWN WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE
OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HAVE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT
MODELS ARE HIT AND MISS WITH OUTSIDE PCPN CHCS WITH PASSING
WAVES/FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

EAR IS CURRENTLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT GRI WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
THANKS TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS IN THE AREA...BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. CURRENT WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS...WITH SPEEDS
PEAKING IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. OTHER
CONCERN IS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER TERMINAL HAVING A NOTABLE IMPACT IS LOW...SO
KEPT MENTION AT VCSH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ADP



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