Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 310651
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
151 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA HAS KEPT SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS ARE TURNING
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 MPH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND MAYBE CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO AREA AND THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MOSTLY EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS AROUND 5000 J/KG. THE LATEST WRF
RUN HAS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING AND ALL
OF THE MODELS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TIMING
THE INITIAL ONSET HAS A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY...BUT LOOKS LIKE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME.

THE FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND MUCH OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT THAT BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT
AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SUNRISE MONDAY THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE
CWA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE...THERE WILL BE A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH RIDGING IN THE
EAST. THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST
THUS THE DRY WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED
EAST AS WELL AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO
SOUTHEAST NEB...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO CREATING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR CWA ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY. IN ADDITION TO THE NW WINDS...DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WORK EAST INTO OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND A DRY LABOR DAY IS FORECAST DUE
TO SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THE LATEST GFS DOES GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS IT BRINGS
ANOTHER WEEK WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE
FEATURE BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE GOING AND MAY
LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS NO MAJOR DISTURBANCES ARE
SLATED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. COULD BE A WEAK PERTURBATION OR TWO
THAT MOVES THROUGH WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.  LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT FOR LATER IN THE WEEK IN BUILDING THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH WHILE CARVING OUT ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PLACES US IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LAYING OUT AND STALLING OVER THE AREA AS IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...EXPECT OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHOULD
ALLEVIATE ONCE THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES EAST. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A THUNDERSHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH...POTENTIALLY FROM AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z TO CONVEY THIS CONFIDENCE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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