Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 021647
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1147 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT
AROUND 65KTS NEAR 39000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND
KOAX. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS A
RESULT...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR
AREA REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MOST PART.

OMEGA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES PROMOTING PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF THIS WRITING. THAT SAID...THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS CLEARING OUR AREA NOW...AND RADAR DATA FROM KUEX
INDICATES SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA AS A RESULT. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA FROM ACROSS THE CWA...PER
THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST INCREASED DIABATIC
HEATING...ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT LATER TODAY...WILL PROMOTE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. THESE
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH
INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS...COULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 1000-1500J/KG WILL
ACCOMPANY DEEP- LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~40KTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD CONVECTION BE REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL
KANSAS HAS WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS PRODUCING THE
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE
MAIN FEATURES...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK TODAY...THEN SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND EXPECT
THERE TO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...BUT CHANCES DIMINISH DURING
THE THE NIGHT.

MUCAPE INCREASES TO OVER 4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT
DIMINISHES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING. EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS THIS PERIOD BUT THE UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
TRANSITION TO A BIT MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY BY NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE A CHALLENGING FORECAST PATTERN FOR PRECISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OR COVERAGE.

STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE BY MONDAY WILL CUT
INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. UNTIL THEN...BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SEEM TO FAVOR MORE DRY WEATHER THAN WET...ESPECIALLY ON THE
4TH WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE. HAVE SCALED BACK THE RAIN CHANCE IN SOME
AREAS. ON THE 4TH...CAN/T RULE OUT ANYTHING COMPLETELY...THERE MAY
SOME ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON LOCAL INDEPENDENCE DAY EVENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
BEGIN LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WHICH SETTLES SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. THIS PUSHES THROUGH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES SOUTH AND TAKES THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH IT...AND THE DRIER TREND IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MONDAY NIGHT REFLECT THIS IDEA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS

OCCASIONAL CLOUD COVER NEAR 15000FT AGL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM
GUIDANCE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS COULD BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SUCH CONDITIONS IN THE
TAFS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT ~18 HOURS.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS ALSO TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
VARIABLE DURING THE TAF PERIOD...AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...BRYANT



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