Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242332
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
532 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO OUR BRIEF WARM UP
THAT WE EXPERIENCED TODAY AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER WEATHER WILL
BRING FORTH A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THE SFC
LOW WILL JUST BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND
DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM AROUND
BROKEN BOW AT DAY BREAK...TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS BY NOON. THE 12Z
AND 18Z NAM40 INDICATE STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (900-850MB)
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.01 TO 0.10
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL QUICKLY SATURATE TO BELOW FREEZING
AND THUS IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ALL SNOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A WARM LAYER RIGHT NEAR THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE INTO
MOST AREAS SEEING A LITTLE RAIN INITIALLY...TRANSITIONING INTO RAIN
AND SNOW AS THE NEAR SFC AREA SATURATES AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN.
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY FROM THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE NORTHEAST COULD
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS A 1 TO 4 HOUR
PERIOD OF WET SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE UP TO 1 INCH. THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE FORCING THROUGH THE DAY AND EXIT OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ALTHOUGH IT`S STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO TALK ANY SPECIFIC
TIMING/AMOUNTS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...THERE IS LITTLE SECRET THAT
THE "HIGHLIGHT" OF THIS 6-DAY PERIOD ARE THE VARIOUS MEASURABLE
SNOW CHANCES THAT NOT ONLY INCLUDE THE WEEKEND AS BEFORE...BUT NOW
EXTEND AS FAR OUT AS MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL...AS IT NOW APPEARS THE
SNOW CHANCES COULD COME IN A FEW "WAVES" WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LULL OR TWO IN BETWEEN. WE ARE STILL 24-48 HOURS AWAY FROM
PUBLISHING OFFICIAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND IN OUR PRODUCTS
AND SOCIAL MEDIA...BUT IF (AND YES A BIG "IF") THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR CURRENT TRENDS...WE
WOULD BE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 2-6" POTENTIAL FOR THE SATURDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME AS A WHOLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL KS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. AGAIN THOUGH...CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS DAY 4-6 TIME RANGE...AS OTHER MODELS SUCH AS
THE LATEST 12Z CANADIAN GEM MODEL CONTINUES TO OFFER A LESS-
CONCERNING PICTURE WITH THE MAJORITY OF WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL
FOCUSING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CWA. BECAUSE NOT EVERY MODEL IS IN
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT...POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE
STILL NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH SOME "LIKELY" 60S
ARE NOW ADVERTISED MAINLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS...THIS WEEKEND CERTAINLY
BEARS WATCHING...BUT IT`S STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO HIT THE WINTRY
"PANIC BUTTON" JUST YET.

OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE WEEKEND-MONDAY SNOWFALL
DETAILS ...TEMPERATURE-WISE THINGS ARE GOING TO REMAIN SOLIDLY
BELOW-NORMAL THROUGH THIS ENTIRE 6-DAY PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT "NORMAL" HIGHS FOR LATE FEB-EARLY MARCH ARE WELL
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
OVERALL-COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS...WITH
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER 20S PREVAILING MOST AREAS FRIDAY-SUNDAY...AND
THEN MAYBE...JUST MAYBE A RETURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD 30S FOR
MONDAY-TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE ARE NO LATE NIGHTS/MORNINGS
THAT APPEAR TO BE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CANDIDATES (-20 OR
COLDER)...BUT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF -15 TO -20 VALUES
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID). ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
WILL OCCUR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WITH LIGHTER
WIND MOST PLACES SHOULD DROP NO COLDER THAN THE -5 TO -10 RANGE.

TAKING A BIT BRIEFER-THAN-USUAL LOOK AT THE DETAILS IN 12-24 HOURS
BLOCKS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NOT TO COMPLETELY IGNORE "SYSTEM NUMBER 1" THIS
WEEK AS DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE...BUT BY SUNSET
THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD POSSIBLY BE LINGERING IS A CHANCE OF
NON-MEASURABLE FLURRIES...WITH THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL ENHANCED IF
IN FACT A FAIRLY SOLID LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT IN A FAVORABLY COLD DENDRITIC TEMPERATURE LAYER. IN
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...LINGERED A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE BIGGER
STORY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE SHARPLY COLDER AIR INVADING THE CWA ON
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL AVERAGE
A BRISK 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH AT TIMES. ACTUAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE AIMED SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MOST NEB
ZONES...WITH MORE-SO 10-13 IN KS ZONES. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -15 TO -20 WILL BE COMMON LATE IN
THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH/EAST OF THE TRI CITIES.

THURSDAY DAYTIME/NIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN A
PRECIP-FREE BUT VERY COLD 24 HOURS...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AS ITS CORE SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS WITH ONLY
TEENS IN MOST AREAS AND MAYBE LOW 20S SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS WILL BE
MADE WORSE BY CONTINUED STEADY NORTH WINDS SUSTAINED GENERALLY
15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BREEZES THURSDAY NIGHT TURN LIGHTER
AS THEY SHIFT TO EAST/SOUTHEAST...BUT ACTUAL LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN
COLDER THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE AND GENERALLY AIMED A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

FRIDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: AGAIN KEPT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN A
FEW FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES WILL KEEP QUITE A CHILL IN THE AIR DESPITE HIGHS POSSIBLY
NUDGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY INTO THE LOW-MID 20S
MOST PLACES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME-SUNDAY NIGHT: HAVE LARGELY ALREADY COVERED THIS
48-HOUR MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN ABOVE...SO PLEASE REFER TO IT
AGAIN. SNOW COULD VERY WELL OVERSPREAD THE CWA IN EARNEST DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BLOSSOMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BETTER SNOW CHANCES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO FAVOR SOUTHERN ZONES
MORE SO THAN NORTHERN ONES.

MONDAY DAYTIME-NIGHT: IN A CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WE NOW HAVE
SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT ANY ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS IMPACTFUL AS THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY DAYTIME: KEPT THIS LAST DAY OF THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS
VERY PRELIMINARILY AIMED INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL TURN WET AND WINDY BY
MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR AND A QUICK PERIOD OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 25KTS WITH GUSTS OF
35KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY


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