Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 172043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
343 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Satellite data showing an upper level disturbance continuing to
sink  southeast through the Dakotas this afternoon, associated
with a low pressure system over Ontario. Scattered showers have
been around the region much of the day, with another batch now
starting to shift in from the west. The main cold front has pushed
just south of the CWA this afternoon, currently draped from
central KS northeast into southern IA. Looking at sky cover, the
northern half of the CWA has been pretty cloudy, while the
southern half has seen more sun. As a result, there`s been quite a
range in temperatures, with mid 70s in the north to lower 90s
across north central KS.

For the rest of this afternoon and evening, hi-res models are
showing this are of showers continuing to swing through the
northern CWA, with the better chances of thunderstorms focusing
just off to the south along the sfc frontal boundary. Lowered
inherited PoPs across the south this evening since things should
focus to our south. Will keep PoPs in this afternoon/evening to
account for activity swing through. Better instability is to our
south, but it`s certainly not zero, so will keep the thunder
mention going.

Once this activity moves through, dry conditions are forecast for
the remainder of the short term period. Good agreement among
models showing northwesterly flow building in the upper levels
across the region, thanks to ridging building north over the
western CONUS. Cooler surface high pressure settles in across the
region tomorrow, keeping winds northwesterly. May be a bit breezy,
mainly across the NErn half of the CWA, with some stronger winds
aloft to mix down. Outside of the winds, it will be a pretty nice
day, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Monday morning, models are in good agreement showing amplified
northwesterly flow aloft set up across the Central Plains, sitting
between high pressure over the desert SW and low pressure over
Ontario. The forecast remains dry. High pressure at the surface
across the region is expected to bring lighter westerly winds to
start the day, turning more northwesterly for much of the area in
the afternoon. Forecast highs bounce back up right around normal
in the mid 80s.

The dry forecast continues for Monday night and currently through
the daytime hours on Tuesday, but uncertainty arises the later
into Tuesday we go, as models showing the potential for a more
unsettled pattern for the rest of the week. Late in the day
Tuesday and into Tuesday night, the first in series of upper level
disturbances moves into western Canada, breaking down the western
CONUS ridge. Winds are expected turn more southerly ahead of low
pressure over Colorado, but speeds remain on the lighter side.
Some models try developing precipitation over western
KS/southwestern NE during the afternoon and bring into the WSW
fringes of the CWA, but the better chances look to be during the
evening/overnight hours. Confidence isn`t the highest, the ECMWF
shows hardly anything impacting the CWA at any point. Expecting
another bump up in high temperatures, forecast to reach the upper
80s to mid 90s.

Wednesday and Thursday, disturbances/areas of low pressure
continue sliding across Canada/northern CONUS, further breaking
down the ridge. Eventually flow across the region is zonal, and
with the CWA sitting on the northern edge for of the warmer temps
aloft/capping, brings better chances for waves to move right
through. Current timing in the models brings the best chances for
thunderstorms to be in the late day-overnight hours, with much of
the daytime hours probably dry. These disturbances also push sfc
fronts south through the the region, adding a focus for storms as
well. Too early to pin down specifics, but strong/severe
thunderstorms do look like a possibility both days. Forecast highs
both days are expected to get into the 90s.

Scattered PoPs remain in the forecast for Fri-Sat, but confidence
is lower due to model differences with timing/location of
additional disturbances. Highs are currently forecast to fall back
into the mid 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

VFR conditions currently forecast for this TAF period, with the
main question lying with precipitation chances. Have an area of
showers currently pushing east across northern NE, at this point
that is looking to remain north of the terminal areas. Models vary
on just how much activity develops this afternoon, as a sfc frontal
boundary pushes further south with an upper level disturbance
swinging through. Most have little, if any, activity affecting the
terminals, so decided to keep any mention out at this point. Will
see how the afternoon evolves. Otherwise, northeasterly winds
currently in place will turn more north to northwesterly through
the duration of the period.




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