Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 212354
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

There are a couple of forecast concerns in the short term.
1. Heat
2. Precipitation chances

Overall the main pattern begins to become more zonal as the a more
potent upper upper wave moves across southern Canada. This wave
will help kick a front eastward into the region during the day
Saturday.

1. Dewpoint temperatures are continuing to be higher
across the board today...with little mixing occurring. Despite the
cloud cover this morning, highs today are still on track to be in
the upper 90s in much of southern Nebraska with low 100s in
Kansas. Heat index values have already exceeded 105 in portions of
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Did not touch the
heat warning for Friday as dewpoints look to be similar if not
higher and temperatures very similar. Heat index values tomorrow
could again be between 105-110 area wide.

Saturday also looks to be similar...hot with relatively high
dewpoint temperatures. A weak front will approach from the west
during the day Saturday and could help to mix down some drier
air, but even then actual temps will still be into the upper 90s
and low 100s. With the current forecast, temps and heat index
values approach the 105 across portions of the area. Could see the
warning extended for Saturday as it will undoubtedly be HOT.
However, at this time, will allow either tonight`s shift or
tomorrow afternoon`s to issue the extension if it still is
warranted based on latest trends and guidance.

2. Precipitation chances increase this evening and tonight as
subtle waves move across the top of the ridge. The NAM/GFS/HRRR
and other high-res models support the development of storms
developing along a weak surface trough out west this afternoon
and moving east across the area this evening and overnight. Small
chances for precipitation are possible during the day Friday
through Saturday as these weak disturbances move across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

With the help of the upper wave over the weekend...the ridge
breaks down, zonal flow and eventually slight northwesterly flow
returns to the region. The forecast for next week is overall
messy with lots of little waves moving southward in northwest
flow. There are lots of small chances for precipitation. Do not
think it will rain the whole time despite the continuous chances,
but off and on chances do exist. There are two more potent waves
moving through one Monday into Tuesday and the other Wednesday
into Thursday. These two could bring more widespread rain chances,
but still at this time, it does not look to bring a lot of rain to
some of the drought stricken areas.

With the breakdown of the ridge and the passage of the front
Saturday...Sunday looks to be the start of a small cool down. I
say small meaning that highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s
will be common through the week...but cooler than the end of this
week. It is still summer and normal daily highs are in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

There are no major aviation concerns with VFR conditions expected
to continue throughout the TAF valid period. The wind will remain
rather light and thunderstorm chances, if any, are too low to
mention.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Wesely



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