Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 260856
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
356 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Please check back for an updated Short Term section within the
next hour.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday daytime through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

At the start of the long term period Thursday morning, models are in
pretty good agreement showing zonal to low amplitude northwesterly
flow in place in the upper levels, thanks to low pressure spinning
over northern MN and another disturbance moving out of the Rockies.
Expecting a frosty start to the day, as a surface ridge axis and
light winds look to be in place. Through the daytime hours, the
first of a couple of system to affect the area will be moving in
from the west, increasing precipitation chances. The better chances
are expected to move in during the afternoon hours, and with it
being a slower mover, chances are lingering all the way into Friday.
Models aren`t in too bad of agreement, showing the main mid level
frontogenetical band sliding from SSW to NNE, with just some minor
timing differences. Through ~12Z Friday, the better chances look to
be roughly along/south of a LXN/HJH line, moving north of that line
after 12Z Friday. Through the afternoon/evening hours on Friday,
that northward shifting precipitation looks to also be waning. Hard
to say at this point how much of a lull (and the areal coverage of
it) there may be, but the CWA will be sitting between the departing
disturbances phasing in with low pressure over Ontario and deepening
low pressure over portions of CO/NM. No notable change to the well
below normal highs expected both Thur/Fri. Normal is roughly mid
60s, forecast highs for Thur are in the lower/mid 50s, with Fri in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Precipitation type looks to be a cold
rain, the colder temps that would support a mix of snow are expected
to remain west of the CWA, and instability/thunder chances remain
south.

Looking to the upcoming weekend (late Fri night through Sun
evening), focus remains on the above mentioned deepening upper level
low pressure system off to our WSW. At 12Z Saturday, models are in
pretty good agreement showing the upper low located over the western
CO/NM border. While larger scale lift is on the increase, at least
through 12Z Saturday, there are questions with just how far north
into the CWA any precipitation is reaching. Latest runs showing
lower chances north of the NE/KS state line. That question continues
through the daytime hours Saturday, as the main low has only shifted
closer to the OK/TX panhandle area. There is more notable
differences between models with the areal coverage, the ECMWF/GEM
are on the more liberal side with their QPF, the GFS struggles to
get to I-80. Model difference start spreading more Sat night into
Sun, a little with timing but more so with the path of the upper
low. At 12Z Sun, the ECMWF/GEM have the low centered roughly over
western portions of our CWA, the GFS is further south, along the
central KS/OK border. While both tracks bring good precip chances to
the CWA, the GFS is showing a greater impact over the eastern half
of the CWA and exiting out of the area quicker. The others affect
more of the area and are on the slower side.

Saturday morning and more so Sunday morning, colder air working in
with the system will bring the potential for at least a RA/SN mix
(if not a total switch over to SN). Saturday morning, this potential
is at this point confined to far northwestern portions of the area.
Sat night/Sun morning, at least a portion of every county in our CWA
has at least a RA/SN mix mention in the the forecast. Far western
portions may see a switch over to all snow for a period of time.
Daytime highs are forecast to reach into the 40s, but confidence in
forecast temps aren`t with the potential for ongoing precip during
the day. Too early at this point to get too caught up in
accumulations, etc...plenty of model details yet to be worked out.
It`s something to keep an eye on, as winds may also play a factor.
Sustained speeds of 15-25 MPH will be possible.

This system is expected to depart Sunday night, exact timing yet to
be determined. While much of the area is currently forecast to be
dry, confidence isn`t high, as models showing another disturbance
quick on the heels of the last. The pattern remains unsettled for
the first half of the work week, though a more mild air mass also
looks to build back in behind the weekend low, bringing highs back
into the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

General overview:
MVFR ceilings will continue to dominate roughly the first half of
the period before lifting/dissipating to VFR levels. Winds will
remain quite breezy from the north-northwest through today before
easing up markedly this evening. Now some more element-specific
details for those interested:

Ceiling:
While confidence is pretty high that roughly these first 12 hours
should remain dominated by MVFR, as usual there are some question
marks regarding exactly when ceilings will lift to VFR and/or
scatter out, with some guidance suggesting as early as around 15Z
at KEAR and others stubbornly holding on to MVFR well into the
afternoon. So, as a current middle ground best-guess have aimed
for VFR arriving at KEAR at 17Z and KGRI at 19Z. Even if it is a
bit delayed from this, confidence is pretty high in considerable
clearing by early evening.

Surface winds:
Breezy north-northwest winds with sustained speeds generally
15-20kt and gusts 20-25kt will hold firm through late afternoon
before markedly declining under 10kt late in the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pfannkuch
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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