904
FXUS63 KGID 221729
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1229 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The main concerns in the short term are 1. One more day of heat
for portions of the area and 2. Precipitation potential as the
weak front moves through.

A weak front will sag slowly southward throughout the day today
which will impact the potential for thunderstorms and also impact
the heat potential across the area. The timing of the front is the
main question, how quickly will it move south.

1. Temperatures will be highest along and south of the weak
front, and dewpoints will continue to be high as well. Heat
indices of 100 degrees and higher are possible mainly along and
southeast of a Geneva, NE to Phillipsburg, KS line. Have added
Fillmore County in Nebraska and Phillips County in Kansas to the
ongoing heat advisory. Otherwise temperatures will be slightly
cooler along and north of the boundary.

2. The frontal boundary will also be a focus for thunderstorm
potential through the afternoon and overnight. The best chances
will be along and south of Interstate 80. Upper level shear is
lacking, but with ample instability due to heat and moisture
strong to severe storms are a possibility. Have kept the main
threat of ping pong balls and 60 mph winds as the primary
concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Aloft: Typical of summer...the Westerlies will remain confined to
the Nrn USA. Weak NW flow will be overhead Sun with a trof over the
GtLakes. Heights will rise a bit Tue with the Westerlies becoming
zonal. The last 2 runs of the EC/GFS are tightly clustered with a
shortwave trof/low that will advance across Srn Canada Mon-Wed. As
it reaches Hudson Bay...some amplification will occur with trofs
over the Ern/Wrn USA and a broad ridge developing over the Rockies.
This will allow a subtropical high rebuilds from the Desert SW into
the Srn Plns.

Surface: Nrn Plns high pres will build into the Cntrl Plns Sun and
then gradually slip to the E Mon-Tue. The trof moving across Canada
will drive a cool front across the Nrn 2/3 of the CONUS. Return flow
will develop here Mon with the front arriving Wed. The front will
cont sinking S into the Srn Plns Thu-Fri...with Nrn Plns high pres
building in.

Sensible wx details...

Rain: Typical of summer...chances are very very low thru Tue...and
any limited tstm activity will be very spotty. There is very little
to force tstm development...except on the smaller end of the
mesoscale...and predictability with such small features is
impossible beyond day 1. Most places will cont dry.

The best chance for sct tstms will be Wed over S-cntrl Neb and Thu
over N-cntrl KS. Svr tstms will be possible given the magnitude of
the instability...but shear will be limited.

Temps: averaging a little above normal (low-mid 90s by day and 60s
to near 70 at night).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Showers have moved east of the terminals for now, but a weak mid-
level disturbance continues to develop showers with a few rumbles
of thunder across central and west-central Nebraska.

I continued a mention of VCTS for a short period later this
afternoon as short-term models move this activity towards the
area. That said, the most robust thunderstorms should stay along
and near the cold front across northern Kansas...well to the south
of GRI and EAR.

Otherwise, northeasterly winds will become light and variable
tonight and will likely remain less than 10kts tomorrow as well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ077-086-087.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005-006-017.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Mangels