000
FXUS63 KGID 251709
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1209 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A seasonably cool afternoon is expected across the region today as
a cold front tracked across south central Nebraska overnight.
While this cold front is currently exiting the local area...
expect breezy northwesterly winds to develop in its wake...making
for a blustery fall afternoon across the local area. Right now the
surface winds are in the 10 to 15 mph range thanks to the low
level inversion in place...but once the sun comes up and some
mixing is realized...expect winds to increase significantly...with
wind gusts to 35 mph or so expected by the late morning through
afternoon hours.

While conditions will be breezy this afternoon...satellite imagery
is indicating mostly clear skies will prevail across the region
today...so ample sunshine is anticipated. With these mainly clear
skies then expected to continue overnight and with surface high
pressure settling in from the northwest...expect an unseasonably
cool night across the region with the first real chance for some
frost...in spots...of the season. While the frost potential
should only be limited to low lying spots and valleys across
Dawson...Sherman...Valley and Greeley counties...temperatures all
around overnight will be on the chilly side for late
September...with lows in the tri-cities likely dropping into the
upper 30s to near 40 by early Monday morning.

Overall...a quiet...breezy...and cool afternoon is expected
today...with unseasonably cool temperatures and light winds
expected overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Aloft: NW flow will prevail over the fcst area thru Wed. At sunrise
Mon...a low will be over MN/WI with a subtropical high over the W.
Another low will be S of the high over the Baja peninsula. The last
svrl runs of global models and ensemble means are in good agreement
that a ridge will evolve over the Plains by midweek...with trofs
over the E Pac and Ern USA...with eventual progression to a Wrn
trof/Ern ridge next weekend. But significant complications remain.
While model spread is substantial with the Ern low...it shouldn`t
have any direct effects here. The Baja low lift N on the back side
of the developing ridge...open up Wed and be absorbed into the
Westerlies as heights fall over the E Pac. Model consensus bring the
remnant trof thru here Thu night into Fri. This will nudge the ridge
E with SW flow developing and remaining over the Plains thru the
weekend.

Surface: Wrn USA high pres will cont building in Mon on its way into
TX. Another high will develop and drop into the upr Midwest on the
backside of the Ern low Wed. This high will strengthen as it drifts
into Ern Canada thru Fri. Meanwhile...a low pres sys will migrate
inland thru Wrn N America Wed into next weekend. The associated cool
front probably won`t eject onto the Plains and cross the fcst area
until Mon 10/4 at the earliest due to the slow movement of the
pattern.

Not many daily details to add. Clear/quiet/dry and very very
comfortable. Cool Mon but a little warmer. Then a little warmer than
normal Tue-Wed. A push of cooler air circulating around the Ern USA
low could drop temps back to near normal Thu-Fri.

A chance for shwrs enters the fcst Thu night and conts thru Sat. The
fcst is probably too aggressive/quick to bring precip back into the
fcst. Prefer the drier 12Z/00Z EC which do not bring precip in here
until Fri night at the earliest. Thunder is iffy. The EC is stable
...but because of how easy it is to get instability/thunder here...
used the GFS stability for mention of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period. Surface winds
will continue to be the main issue this afternoon as the terminals
lie between low pressure to the east and high pressure building
in from the west. Should remain sustained near 20 kt until around
sunset. VAD wind profile and models show winds around 30 kt at 800
mb which is where we should mix out so gusts to 30 will work.
Winds to let up after sunset as we begin to cool and pressure
gradient decreases with surface high building in.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Ewald