Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Satellite has clear skies across the area this afternoon. The high
pressure responsible for the clear skies is to the east of the
forecast area this afternoon.

The high pressure is expected to continue to move to the east
tonight and the pressure gradient across the area will increase.
Winds aloft at 850mb increase to 30 to 40 kts over night. As the sun
comes up Monday, the winds are expected to increase. Expect breezy
conditions during the day. Skies should remain mostly sunny and
temperatures will return to near normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

The south winds from Monday will continue into Monday night and
there will be increasing moisture by Monday night. The models are
mostly keeping dry conditions yet Monday night and even into Tuesday
as well. By Tuesday there are a few models that bring in some
precipitation into the area. An upper level low approaches the area
and a cold front is expected to move into the area. Models have a
few small timing differences with the cold front moving into the
area. The front is expected to move into the area Tuesday night. The
best chance for thunderstorms will be in the late afternoon and into
the evening. The front is most of the way through the forecast area
by Wednesday morning but the chances for thunderstorms continue
during the day as another weak upper level wave moves into the area.
The best chances will be further south, closer to the front. Expect
a few thunderstorms to continue into Wednesday night, especially
southeast in the area.

A surface high pressure system pushes into the area for Thursday and
most of Thursday night, keeping things dry. An upper level wave
approaches the area Thursday night and there could be a few
thunderstorms in north central Kansas. The period Friday through
Sunday there is an upper level wave moving through the area. Models
have a few timing differences and there is some uncertainty. The
models have some differences in when there will be precipitation
across the area, but the best chance during this time appears to be
Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Overall...VFR conditions with breezy southerly winds are expected
for at least the next 24 hours. With low pressure deepening on
the lee side of the Rockies and high pressure to our east...expect
a fairly tight pressure gradient across the region through the
period. While winds have decoupled some tonight...they do remain
breezy...with very strong winds aloft...currently resulting in
some LLWS as evident in the wind profile from the radar. Expect
this differential to decrease during the morning hours as some
mixing occurs...eventually resulting in surface winds gusting to
near 30 KTS during the late morning through afternoon hours. Wind
are then expected to decouple after sunset again Monday
evening...resulting in another night of LLWS at both terminals.
Other than passing mid/high level obstructions are
expected at either terminal through the period.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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