Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281731
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ALOFT: THE FLOW AND ITS EVOLUTION IS COMPLEX. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THE UPR LOW THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN WILL WEAKEN AND DEPART
FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW OVER CA WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS LOW OVER THE 4-CORNERS BY 12Z/FRI.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THESE LOWS MOVES THRU THIS EVE. SO BY DAYBREAK FRI WINDS
WILL BE SW.

SURFACE: OCCLUDED LOW PRES WAS OVER OMA AND FILLING AS IT DEPARTS
TO THE E. THE POLAR FRONT WAS WELL E AND S OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
ITS SRN EXTENT OVER TX. LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRES WAS OVER CANADA...
AND ITS SRN FRINGE ENCOMPASSED THE NRN USA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
COMMENCE TODAY OVER NM...WITH THIS LOW EJECTING INTO W TX TONIGHT.
THE FRONT OVER TX WILL LIFT N ACROSS OK INTO KS AS A RESULT.

BACKWASH/WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS CONTD OVERNIGHT MAINLY N AND E OF THE
TRI-CITIES...WITH AREAS S AND W MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...MID- LVL
WAA CLOUDS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER SW KS AND CO.

TODAY: SUBSTANTIAL WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF S-
CNTRL NEB PER THE 18Z/00Z NAM/GFS AND 06Z RAP...AND ANY DAYTIME
BREAKS THAT DEVELOP WILL FILL BACK IN WITH THE THERMAL TROF/COLD
POOL OVERHEAD.

MEANWHILE...MULTI-LAYERED WAA MID-CLOUDS WILL LIFT INTO THE FCST
AREA FROM THE S. SO OVERALL...THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE
M/CLOUDY. THESE MID-LVL CLOUDS COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS
AFTN W OF HWY 281...BUT ANY AMTS WILL BE UNDER .10" AND PROBABLY
.05".

UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL.

TONIGHT: ANY AREAS THAT AREN`T COMPLETELY CLOUDY WILL BECOME
CLOUDY. WAA/CONVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE
LOW-LVL JET INCREASES TO 30-35 KTS AND THE 850 MB FRONT LIFTS INTO
KS/NEB.

A FAIRLY SOLID SHIELD OF RAIN SHOULD OVERTAKE THE FCST AREA FROM
SW-NE...ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVER N-CNTRL KS WITH 200 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OVERVIEW...IT WILL BE A WET FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD RUNNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY
THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY...MANY AREAS WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH SOME SPOTS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES.
IT WILL ALSO BE COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S. AT THIS TIME THE WORK
WEEK APPEARS DRY TO MOSTLY DRY WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
60S AND THEN EVEN SOME 70S BY LATER IN THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL VALUES FRIDAY-SATURDAY OF OVER 1 INCH IS
FAIRLY HIGH. WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A FEW MORNINGS
(PRIMARILY MONDAY MORNING) WHERE LOWS COULD DIP INTO THE 30S IN
SOME AREAS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK
INTO COLORADO WITH THE SFC LOW OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE OPEN FOR NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY INSTABILITY AS WE WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THEREFORE
WE EXPECT CLOUDY...COOL...AND BREEZY EAST WINDS WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY AS WE
HEAD INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH AS A
LARGE AREA OF STEADY MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVER 1 INCH
OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR CURRENT RAIN CHANCES MAY BE
TOO HIGH ON SUNDAY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST AREAS END UP
DRY ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK OF THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA BY THEN. NOT REALLY EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...RATHER WE SHOULD SEE MORE
OF A GENERAL STEADY RAIN WITH THE FOCUS OF THAT PRECIPITATION
BEING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MAKE IT
COOL WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE PLAINS AND SHOULD REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AM ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF THINGS THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT MVFR
CEILINGS IN AT BOTH SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS NOT HIGH.
VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES...DEBATED INSERTING
A VCSH MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A NARROW BAND OF PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP/SLIDE NORTH...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO.
BETTER CHANCES WILL BUILD NORTH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING OVER BOTH TERMINAL AREAS BY
MID/LATE MORNING. CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



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