325
FXUS63 KGID 260300
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Short Term and Key Messages Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding/localized flash flooding is a concern overnight for
  much of mainly our Nebraska forecast area. A Flood Watch has
  been expanded to include the majority (all but the southeast
  few counties) of our Nebraska forecast area through 7 AM.

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms could impact the local area
  this afternoon through the overnight hours, with some severe
  potential (especially wind gusts 60+ mph) expected through
  around 10 PM CDT.

- A brief dip in afternoon temps to near climo (mid 80s) is
  anticipated for Thursday, with well above normal temperatures
  returning Friday and through the upcoming weekend. Fairly
  widespread heat index values over 100 are anticipated for
  Saturday.

- While periodic, mainly small, chances for thunderstorms return
  to the forecast beginning Saturday evening, the overall
  forecast looks much drier next week, with mainly near to above
  normal temperatures each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

-- Quick update on latest/recent trends through the overnight:

- The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled generally 1-2
  hours early for our affected counties. Early storms briefly
  produced some localized severe weather (highlighted by some
  wind damage in Kearney per known reports), but poor lapse
  rates and outflow getting out ahead of updrafts then led to a
  steady weakening trend.

- BY FAR our main concern through the rest of tonight is/will be
  at least localized flooding/flash flooding. Based on latest
  trends from especially HRRR, the Flood Watch (valid through 7
  AM) was expanded southward to include all except a few of our
  far southeastern Nebraska counties, as much of the Watch area
  could see anywhere from 1-4" of cumulative rain spanning
  roughly the sunset-sunrise time frame. Fortunately (at least
  so far), the heaviest rain has "avoided" our most flooding-
  sensitive areas around Sherman/southern Valley counties that
  saw the overall- heaviest rain during the previous overnight
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A frontal boundary remains draped across northwestern portions
of the local area this afternoon with an upper level shortwave
just upstream of the local area. Just ahead of this front,
showers and thunderstorms have rapidly developed and intensified
the past couple of hours, with some small hail and intense
winds observed in spots. These storms are being fueled by 2-3K
Joules of CAPE, and will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, which may in turn contribute to wind gust potential
from evaporative cooling in downdrafts aiding in downward
momentum transfer. That said, most cells will likely have
trouble organizing given the weak shear environment, so severe
winds (and less-so hail) will be the main focus through around
10 PM.

As we then transition into the overnight hours, storms will
likely become non-severe, although the flooding risk may
increase as storms continue to train across already saturated
soils from this evenings and yesterdays storms - with a second
round of convection transitioning from the high plains then
expected to merge across the local area late in the night.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible over
the next 12-24 hours, with localized amounts up to 4 inches,
especially across the flood watch area.

Slightly cooler air along with light northwesterly winds will
fill in behind the frontal boundary for Thursday, although
additional storm development will remain possible mainly
southeast of the Tri-cities during the afternoon and evening
hours where the front is forecast to stall out before
eventually clearing the local area Thursday night.

Thereafter, warmer temperatures and dry weather will return to
the local area for Friday, as high temperatures return to the
low to mid 90s. Temperatures will then peak on Saturday, when a
weak ridge aloft peaks across the plains. This will result in
the warmest day of the period, with widespread afternoon heat
index values over 100 degrees anticipated Saturday afternoon.
With only weak ridging aloft then persisting into early next
week, expect multiple weak disturbances rolling off the high
plains to bring additional small and periodic chances for
thunderstorm activity through mid-week, before the upper level
ridge eventually re-amplifies across the plains towards the end
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

SHRAs and TSRAs will occasionally impact both terminals through
the evening and overnight hours as a stalled out boundary
meanders across the area and additional development continues. A
second area of convection will eventually merge with the current
activity late in the night, helping to push the boundary south
and east of both terminals by 26/12Z. This should mark and end
to TSRA/SHRA activity...with somewhat confusing (and difficult
to forecast) light winds mostly less than 10 KTS - varying
based on storm development, through 26/12Z. Winds will
eventually become northwesterly by mid-morning Thursday...but
remain generally less than 12 KTS through the afternoon hours
behind the departing front. CIGS will likely remain VFR this
evening, with a potential for a few hours of MVFR CIGS near
2.5KFT late tonight as the second wave of SHRA/TSRA activity
reaches the local area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>076-082>084.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi