Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240840
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

ALOFT: THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROF AXIS WAS SHIFTING E
OF THE FCST AREA. BACK TO NW FLOW THRU TONIGHT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF TO AFFECT THE FCST AREA WAS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS TROF
WILL PASS THRU HERE TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE COLD SECTOR OF DEEP LOW PRES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR THRU TONIGHT. WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ANTICYCLONIC. ITS RIDGE
AXIS WILL PASS THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CLIPPER WILL FORM OVER WRN
CANADA TONIGHT AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE REGION.

NOW: TEMPS CONT STRUGGLING TO DROP. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. SO LOW TEMPS WERE RAISED SVRL DEGS
FROM THE 4 PM FCST.

EARLY THIS MORNING: LOTS OF WRAP AROUND CLOUDS IN CYCLONIC NW
FLOW.

TODAY: CONTINUED WINDY. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL PEAK
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 38 KTS PER BUFKIT MIXING ALGORITHM. USED GFS WITH
ITS DEEPER MIXING.

THE RAP/NAM/GFS AGREE THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE FCST AREA LEAVING SKIES SUNNY.
SIMULATED IR IMAGERY FROM THE 4 KM NAM NEST SUGGESTS SOME PATCHES
OF CIRROSTRATUS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE AND THIS
IS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE...WITH THE NRN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROF DIVING TO OUR W.

INTERNAL VERIFICATION SHOWS WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO COOL ON HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY. SO USED 06Z RAP TO NUDGE TEMPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5-10F COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA.

TONIGHT: WINDS DROP OFF EARLY EVENING WITH DECOUPLING. PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS CONT TO DRIFT THRU BUT SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN
P/CLOUDY.

USED THE WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE 3 BEST-VERIFYING TEMP GUIDES
FOR LOWS...WHICH FAVORED THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. JUST SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE AROUND 4 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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