Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 102314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
514 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

...Updated for Cancellation of Red Flag Warning...

Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The Red Flag Warning has been cancelled. Winds have diminished
significantly. Relative humidity values are still around 20
percent as of 5pm, but will continue to rise over the next few


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The primary forecast concern will center around the extreme fire
danger this afternoon across much of the area and then again
tomorrow primarily across our northern Kansas counties. See the
fire weather section below for more information.

A strong cold front will move through Monday morning resulting in
falling temperatures by afternoon with strong and very unpleasant
north northwest winds. Temperatures will actually remain rather
mild tonight for this time of year just ahead of the cold front
with lows generally around 30 degrees. This will be around 10
degrees above our normal lows.

High temperatures on Monday could reach the mid to upper 40s
across south central Nebraska with mixing along and just behind
the front late Monday morning or around noon and then temperatures
will begin to fall during the afternoon as winds increase,
possibly gusting to 45 mph. There will be strong mixing behind the
cold front. Kansas counties should see highs in the low 50s
before temperatures also begin to fall there by early afternoon.
This will be another dry frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The current pattern of an upper level ridge over the western
United States and an upper level trough across the eastern United
States will persist throughout the forecast period. The upper
ridge will become less amplified with time gradually flattening
out some. We will continue to see weak moisture starved shortwaves
tracking through within the northwesterly flow regime bringing
occasional short lived cooler shots of air while we remain dry and
overall abnormally warm.

Monday night...Will be one of the cooler nights behind Monday`s
cold front, but lows will still be above normal in the lower to
middle 20s.

Tuesday...We start to see more of a downslope westerly wind
component that will begin to warm up western zones, while eastern
zones remain cool, but everyone will still be well above normal
with 40s east and 50s west.

Wednesday and Thursday...Another cool front will push through
Wednesday, but it will be a glancing shot of cooler air with a
reinforcing shot of colder air on Thursday. With mixing on
Wednesday we might actually be warmer than Tuesday in the 50s for
most areas, but we do expect a cool down back into the 40s for
Thursday with that secondary cold front.

Friday through Sunday...We remain warm and dry with highs
generally in the 50s with prevailing downslope warming winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Breezy northwest winds are expected to continue through mid to
late afternoon and then gradually die off this evening before
picking back up again by mid to late Monday morning. Clear to
mostly clear skies are expected through most of the TAF valid
period with maybe some increasing lower clouds Monday morning, but
will continue the VFR ceilings throughout the forecast period for
now. If we do catch some low clouds later Monday morning they
would likely be in the 2000 to 5000 ft agl range.

The other concern will be strong low level wind shear after
midnight tonight and through at least mid morning on Monday.


Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Monday...RH values will be much higher tomorrow across most areas
due to the cooler temperatures behind the morning cold front.
However, our far southwestern Kansas counties could see enough
time ahead of the cold front and enough mixing to still get RH
values down close to that 20 percent criteria. The wind will be
stronger across the entire area on Monday behind the cold front
with strong mixing. Have collaborated with surrounding weather
service offices to issue a fire weather watch for Phillips,
Rooks, and Osborne counties where the RH will also be low in
addition to the strong winds. Confidence is not as high as I would
like with this watch especially if temperatures end up being
colder, which is certainly a possibility.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for KSZ005-017-018.



LONG TERM...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely/Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.