Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 180920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
320 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold airmass is currently in place over Eastern Utah and
Western Colorado. Most of the coldest temperatures are being
observed north of the I-70 corridor. Some of the current cold
spots are Calico with a temp of 34, Kings Point 33, Craig 26, Dry
Lake 29 and Rio Blanco Lake with a temp of 31. At a majority of
locations around the area afternoon high temperatures are
expected to be between 4 and 6 degrees cooler today than those
observed on Monday.

The 0000Z GFS20 and ECMWF as well as the 0600Z NAM12 have all
initialized well. These models all indicate that fast moving
trough of low pressure will slide a boundary across Northern Utah
and Colorado this evening. This will result in some more cold air
and the potential for high elevation snow fall, mainly from the
I-70 corridor and northward. The cold air is expected to penetrate
further south tonight with Wednesday morning low temperatures
anticipated to be between 4 and 8 degrees cooler at many
locations than those observed this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A true fall like day moves in for Wednesday behind the system with
temperatures ending up the lower side of normal. There could be
some snow showers lingering across the northern Park Range in the
cool northwest flow but for the most part mainly clear skies
should be in place. It looks to be a cold Thursday morning with
some of the coldest reading found many places this fall. The Grand
Valley and the southeast Utah valleys that have not seen
widespread freezing conditions may see this occur. Warming will be
moving to end this week and persist into early next week. High
cloudiness on Thursday will be the signal of the leading edge of
the upper ridge moving in. This ridge will break down by late
weekend as another strong system digs off the left coast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions will continue across the area, though areas of mid
level moisture are expected to linger tonight north of I-70 with
bases around 15,000 ft MSL. Then increasing moisture and showers
will be spreading in from the northwest after 18Z reaching an area
north of a line from KVEL to KSBS by 00Z, then north and east of
a line from manila utah to KGUC by 06Z. Expect areas of MVFR and
local IFR with the showers. Snow levels will be lowering to
between 7000 and 8500 ft MSL north of I-70 and between 9000 and
10,000 ft MSL south of I-70 Tuesday evening.




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