Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 161105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
505 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

The cold front has progressed eastward to the Great Plains,
leaving cool and dry northwesterly flow in its wake. This cooler
airmass will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal today
and tomorrow. PWAT values will remain near 0.50 inch with lower
elevations of the atmosphere quite dry. Another trough drops NW to
SE into the region tonight, but not anticipating any moisture with
this trough. Therefore, this passing trough will only increase
winds slightly and reinforce the cooler air aloft.

On Thursday, the longwave trough pattern finally moves off to the
east and high pressure begins to amplify across the southwestern

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Temperatures will rebound to near normal on Friday as the high
pressure axis becomes centered over the Four Corners. On
Saturday, a longwave trough moves onshore the Pacific NW and will
amplify over the west coast. As this occurs, the ridge axis will
move eastward and allow for an increase in moisture from the
Gulf. The GFS and EC are very similar on the longwave pattern,
with a slight difference being the GFS producing a slightly
stronger closed low off of the coast of Cali by Monday. PWATS over
the Four Corners will be near 1 inch by late Sunday and into
Monday. This will likely bring cloud cover to the Four Corners and
northward along the UT/CO border. Afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity will increase early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.
Upslope/downslope and afternoon mixed winds should be in the 5-10
kt range. ILS breakpoints are not expected to be reached today.




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