Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 220539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Mild conditions will continue the rest of this weekend before
cooler weather arrives to start the work week. It will remain dry
tonight with low temperatures dropping into the 50s. High
temperatures on Sunday will be around 75 with skies becoming
cloudy. Rain will slowly spread across the area Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night. More rain is expected Monday into Tuesday with
heavy rain possible. Much cooler weather is forecast for mid week
with highs only around 50 on Tuesday and Wednesday. Even colder
temperatures look possible by next weekend with a chance for the
first freeze of the season.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Some weak returns over Illinois this afternoon were just able to
generate a hundredth of an inch of rain in an extremely dry
environment per mesonet sites. Moisture in the lower levels will
begin to increase tonight; however, given the lack of forcing,
there is not much of a chance for measurable rainfall. Rain
chances will be increasing Sunday, especially later in the day
over west areas including northwest Indiana as a strong cold front
and upper level system approach. There is an outside chance for
thunder; however, left thunder out given virtually zero


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A very wet period is just ahead as a combination of systems moves
across the area during the first half of this upcoming week. The
first of two fronts will move across the region Sunday night. Expect
showers to spread across the area with this system Sunday night.
More rain will follow Monday as an upper level low ejects northeast
along the front and across the Ohio River.  For this package, favor
the ECMWF that has been consistent with a large area of deformation
rain Monday into Tuesday. The EC has also been consistent with
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches during this period. For now, kept
the heavy rain mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Much colder
air will spread across the Upper Great Lakes region Tuesday
accompanied by lake enhanced showers. Lowered highs Tuesday to
around 50 over most areas as 850 mb temps fall below 0C. There
should be a short break in the rain Thursday before even colder air
arrives this coming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions expected through 00Z at both sites with cigs slowly
lowering this afternoon, mainly at KSBN. Some concerns still
linger for low level wind shear overnight at both locations before
mixing of stronger winds to the surface takes place.

Widely scattered showers may move into KSBN late this
afternoon,with no impacts expected. Better chances exist after 00Z
for steady, light rain to impact the site. Confidence low at
this point on eastward extent, intensity and full impacts given it
may be in a weakening state. Have went MVFR cigs/vsby starting at
2Z for now. At KFWA, rain may not make it, if at all, until
outside the current period with maybe a few showers at best
towards the end of the period. For now, no addition of precip or
flight impacts.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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