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000 FXUS63 KIWX 212330 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 630 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION OF FOG REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TAF SITES OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .SHORT TERM... UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES SLOWLY EAST RESULTING IN A SUNNY DAY FOR MOST AS AN AREA OF LATENT STRATUS CLOUDS DISSOLVES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. SIGNIFICANT MORNING FOG DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL TRANSLATE OVERHEAD BY MORNING BRINGING A REPEAT OF FOGGY CONDITIONS INTO MID/LATE MORNING AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON WEST SIDE OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE ALLOWS EFFECTIVE COOLING WHILE LLEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE PER TIME HEIGHTS. ON SUNDAY SUNSHINE WILL AGAIN MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ONCE MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MIXES OUT THOUGH AS WITH TODAY SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT AT H92 RISE A BIT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN EARNEST TO JUST TO OUR WEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF RETREATING LLEVEL RIDGE. ADEQUATE MIXING WOULD SEE HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND AND VERY SIMILAR TO INHERITED FORECAST. BY MONDAY NIGHT DEEPER MOISTURE BEINGS TO ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WAVE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST WITH INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL FOG MENTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER LOW TEMPS. && .LONG TERM... MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO LT WEEK BFR DEPARTING WAYS NXT WEEKEND. PARADE OF SW TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN PERTURBED HIGH MOMENTUM FLW ACRS THE NRN PACIFIC PROMISE AN UNSETTLED END TO NOVEMBER. LEAD SW INTO THE SW US WILL DO LTL OTHER THAN DISLODGE INTENSE SRN STREAM SW OVR LA SHRT TERM. MORE POTENT WAVE OUT NR 140W WILL DIG INLAND SUN AND EMERGE OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS MON. CONTD INTENSIFICATION SHLD LEAD TO A DECENT FNTL RAIN BAND TUE ALTHOUGH STREAM SEPARATION AND WK MID LVL RIDGING ACRS THE GOMEX SUGGEST NO SIG LL MSTR ENTRAINMENT INTO THIS SYS AND WILL CONT TO RIDE LOW CHC POPS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION UPSTREAM OF THIS SYS TIED TO MORE SIG LW TROUGHING DVLPG ACRS THE NEPAC LT WEEK ALLOWS SECONDARY FOLLOWING WAVE TO REINFORCE DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF COLD AIR THU/FRI WHICH LOOKS FVRBL FOR CONTD RAIN/SNOW MENTION ALTHOUGH 12Z GUIDANCE WOULD BODILY FVR A BTR CHC OF RAIN W/BNDRY LYR LOOKING A BIT TOO WARM. OTHERWISE TEMPS NR NORMAL TO START...TAILING OFF TO BLO NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING AND INTO NXT WEEKEND. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LUD LONG TERM...HOLSTEN AVIATION...LUD
