


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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378 FXUS63 KIWX 291726 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. - Chances for showers and storms return through Monday, focused mainly on mid Monday morning into Monday evening. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main concerns. - Seasonable highs in the 80s dominate much of the upcoming week, with somewhat lower humidity values. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Warm front will begin to edge back north today, allowing for afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90 even along the lakeshore areas of Lk MI. 70+ dewpoints are not too far away and will slowly edge northeast into tonight. Instability will begin to increase, but triggers will be very limited with any minimal chances for a pop up shower/storms confined to areas south of US-24 (into the 70+ dewpoints) and maybe along the lake shore areas of LaPorte county as a weak lake breeze may form and hug the coast. Maintained a slgt chc pop in far south/southwest this afternoon but suspect this may even be overdone. Lull in chances occurs most, if not all of tonight before subtle disturbances potentially allow for widely scattered shower/storm development Monday morning as instability increases from more widespread 70 dewpoints. Better chances arrive Monday afternoon during peak heating, but lack of defined trigger areas still exists before the main cold front arrives late afternoon into the evening. Overall atmosphere will be similar to end of last week with more of a pulse nature to storms and some potential for limited organization as best shear and dynamics lag the cold front. As mentioned in past discussions, model blend has been extremely overdone with pops Monday afternoon (80-95%) with above concerns warranted a consensus to cap pops at likely. A few spots may see some localized strong to severe wind gusts (SPC DY2 Marginal Risk- Level 1 of 5) maintained, but locally heavy rain appears a greater threat with PWATS 1.75" to over 2" and a rather weak overall flow. Cold front will sweep through by 6Z Tue with dry conditions expected into Friday with seasonable temperatures in the 80s and lower humidity. Diurnal shower/storm chances may increase for the holiday weekend as moisture increases, but lack of strong triggers or dynamics should limit coverage and intensity. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 A trough traverses the Northern Plains this afternoon into Monday and allows a vort max to rise northward towards the area Monday morning. A more humid air mass returns Monday morning and this environment may make it more conducive to allowing for convective cells that could produce lightning as early as the morning, more likely for FWA than SBN, but not zero chances even for SBN. Depending on instability and eventual shortwave position, the better chances for showers and storms is Monday afternoon, but the shortwave position could remove SBN from rain chances. South wind today obtains a westerly component on Monday. While winds stay weaker than 10 kts today, so 15 to 20 kts breezes will be possible on Monday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller