Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 181737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS IT DOES...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...STARTING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
INDIANA AND MICHIGAN AND SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HAVE CLEARED OUT A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS
EASTERN EDGE WAS SLOWLY MIXING OUT WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER NE FLOW.
FAR WEST/SW AREAS BEING MORE STUBBORN BUT AT LEAST VSBYS SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WILL RE EVALUATE PRIOR TO 10 AM
WHETHER HEADLINES CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR MAY NEED TO EXTEND
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MID MORNING FOR AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF WARSAW. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED AND SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 930 AM EDT WHEN DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING WILL
ALLOW THE FOG TO DISSIPATE. WEAK FLOW OVER THE AREA WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. DRIER AIR WAS SPREADING INTO NW
OHIO WITH AN EAST FLOW...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND WILL HELP
PREVENT STORMS TODAY IN THIS AREA. STABLE MID LEVEL CONDITIONS WITHOUT
ANY LOW LEVEL OR MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY TO AREAS SOUTH OF FT WAYNE WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES SHOULD STAY
UNDER 1000 J/KG...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 1.75 INCH PER BUFKIT SOUNDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

SOMEWHAT BTR AGREEMENT NOTED IN 00Z SOLUTIONS WRT TO SEWD DIG OF
DISTURBANCE OVR SE SK THIS MORNING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY TUE EVE.
HWVR LEADING PREFNTL TROUGH ASSOCD/W THIS SYS IS FASTER IN NEARLY
ALL SOLUTIONS LENDS SOME REFINEMENT TO POPS DURING THE DAY TUE.
OTRWS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SUBSTANTIALLY IN WAKE OF THIS FTR TUE
NIGHT-WED EVE IN LIGHT OF SWD SUPPRESSION OF SUBSTANTIAL LL THETA-E
RIDGE. HWVR LTR WED NIGHT FLW IS PROGGED TO BACK SWRLY INADV OF
ANOTHER SW DISTURBANCE ADVG THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LL MASS FLUX
APPEARS QUITE WEAK THIS FAR SOUTH WITHIN OTRWS CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS YET MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND HAVE
RELUCTANTLY HELD ONTO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DY5 (FRI) IN RESPECT OF
CONSENSUS WAVE SFC FNTL BNDRY POSITION THROUGH THE SRN LAKES. AT
SOME POINT THIS DY3-5 MESS WILL BECOME CLEARER AND ADMITTEDLY CLEANER.

REGARDLESS OF PRECIP FCST...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF SRN/SERN US
UPR RIDGE WILL YIELD CONTD EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF LL THERMAL
RIDGE. SOME POSITIVE FEEDBACK NOTED YDA W/MAX TEMPS AND A SIGN OF
DEEPENING SOIL MSTR ANOMALIES AND W/GENERAL DOUBTS OF WIDESPREAD SIG
RAINFALL MATERIALIZING THIS WEEK SUSPECT 90 DEGREE TEMPS LIKELY NXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

STRATUS AND FOG HAS ERODED AWAY FROM BOTH TAF SITES WITH THIS
REMAINING THE CASE THROUGH EVENING. SCT TO BKN CU WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR
STORM BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE NOT WORTHY OF MENTION IN TAFS.
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP WITH LATER FORECASTS TO FINE TUNE SPECIFICS.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAY INCREASE
AT KSBN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 11Z. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY
ON EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL UNFOLD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.