Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221802
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

A warm front will return northward today as low pressure moves
toward the area. This will result in a renewed threat of showers
and thunderstorms, and an elevated threat of widespread severe
weather late this afternoon and early tonight. In addition, there
is a potential of heavy rainfall tonight. High temperatures today
and Thursday will be around 80. Lows tonight will be from the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

As suspected yda overnight convn and swwd displacement of
composite outflw/wmfnt keeping precip at bay acrs the CWA this
aftn. Decaying upstream stratiform ovr ne IL may hold on long
enough to bring a sprinkle/lt shra to wrn areas yet this aftn hwvr
chcs appear minimal.

Primary focus conts to side w/sewd apch tonight of potent nrn stream
sw trough ovr ne ND this aftn. Sfc reflection back west ovr ern NE
will shift ewd into wrn IN late tonight. Ramping ll waa will aide in
newd mix of wmfnt twd the highway 24 corridor w/commensurate
greatest risk for severe storms btwn 02-07Z generally swwd of a ksbn-
kaoh line. Hwvr most concerning is overlap of extreme shear and mod
cape which point to an enhanced tornado risk alg and sw of the
highway 30 ovr wrn zones mid-lt evening. In addn...nw-se oriented
fntl zone in tandem w/protracted window of mid lvl forcing and
considerable ll mstr flux ewd of sfc cyclone suggest some
substantial rainfall psbl overnight. Hwvr contd dry antecedent conds
and mixed highres signals on where heaviest rainfall may fall lends
no confidence in delineating a potential flood watch and will defer
to oncoming shift.

Otrws besides a lingering shra/isold storm Thu am...general post
fntl drying xpcd to envelope CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Ridging sfc and aloft will bld/expand ewd acrs the Grtlks to
start this pd ahd of intense/deep sw trough progressing slowly ewd
through srn Canada. As surmised yda...warming aloft assocd/w hgt
rises within crest of mid lvl ridge will yield dry wx into Sun
morning followed by a chc of storms Sun aftn/Sun night alg swwd
trailing fntl bndry. Fairly sharp/aggressive ll thermal ridge xpcd
to bld ahd of this ftr w/resulting warm temps this weekend into
Mon.

Aft that repeat dvlpmnt of ern Conus mean troughing and expansive
sfc ridging acrs the lakes will bring the prevailing dry/seasonable
pattn of the past few weeks back into the area for the remainder of
the week as it appears now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 748 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR conditions to continue through the morning. Elevated
convection will overspread the area from the west through the
morning. Expect VFR to MVFR conditions as the core of warm air and
afternoon heating work to produce more cu/stratus. Expect the
second round of convection to advect into the region as mcc/mcs
moves out of IL/WI toward IN around 00Z at KSBN and 02Z at KFWA.
Significantly lower cigs/vsbys will occur as this convection moves
in.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lewis


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