Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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222
FXUS63 KIWX 280501
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
101 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM EDT tue Jun 28 2016

Cooler air will continue to move into the area tonight behind a
cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only in the low to mid 70s. The rest
of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry with
temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strato-cu along h85 trof movg se across the grtlks will
overspread the terminals this morning. Generally low vfr cigs
expected though brief mvfr also psbl. Brisk nw winds expected
today, diminishing this eve as skies clear.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


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