Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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445
FXUS63 KIWX 250805
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
405 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 404 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Expect a couple more days of dry and warm weather for the region.
As a frontal system approaches midweek, the chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase, with the best chance Wednesday
night into Thursday. Highs this afternoon will be in the 70s and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Continued warm and dry this period as sfc ridge accelerates out in
response deepening plains cyclone. Veering to srly flow and
upticking low level thermal ridge...esp west...will yield even
warmer temps for most compared to Mon aftn.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Period remains plagued by model inconsistencies w/continued large
run to run changes. However general theme remains intact with ewd
spread of energetic pac wave train accentuated by vigorous leading
sw disturbance late Wed/early Thu followed by deeper/very dynamic
bookend late weekend.

Combo of these two systems will likely yield some significant
rainfall yet in light of significant specific individual model based
timing/placement little confidence yet in attempting to pin down one
particular portion of the cwa. Nonetheless loose concensus still
holds for ewd frontal progression of lead sw wrapping up across the
upper midwest late Wed night through Thu morning and will follow
downtrending blend given timing.

In the wake of this sys frontal zone will stall through the TN
valley Fri ahead of strong sw disturbance digging into the srn
Rockies and then advance north in response to this sys ejecting out
and deepening through the central plains this weekend. Deep GOMEX
moisture tap ahead of this sys combined with strong frontal dynamics
tied to rapidly intensifying sfc cyclone should maximize deep
layer ascent with considerable moisture flux both along the warm
front Sat night and along/ahead of the cold front late Sun.

Temps well above normal through Sun before briefly crashing Mon in
strong post frontal cold advection regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1253 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

A low pressure system will approach the area through tonight. Have
kept conditions VFR for now as low level moisture will be slow to
return to the area.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy/T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Skipper


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