Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291001
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

COOL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER
40S AND MID 50S. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL THEN DROP
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR...GUSTY NORTH WINDS...AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THERE ALSO IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS. DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE MI IN VEERED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW A BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO OVERSPREAD
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COULD
ALSO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIME IN MAINLY OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS LAKE-800 MB
TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSH THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DRY AIRMASS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE/MIXING DEPTHS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
ONLY 5-7 KFT) SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN
(10-20%). OTHERWISE...WINDS MAY GUSTS AOA 20 KNOTS WITH SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT QUICK DECOUPLING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...
WITH LOWS MAINLY INTO THE 30S AND DEPENDENT ON STRATOCU TRENDS (LOW
CONFIDENCE).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG SHRTWV EXPECTED TO DROP SE FROM SASK THU TO INDIANA FRI WHERE
IT WILL CLOSE OFF AND THEN CONT TO DIG SEWD TO THE NC COAST ON
SATURDAY. INITIAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST BE INCRSG
CLOUDINESS THU WHICH WILL OFFSET WK LOW LEVEL WAA RESULTING IN HIGHS
ONLY IN THE L50S. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NGT
AS MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCHG SHRTWV OVERSPREADS THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW
CLOSES OFF OVER THE AREA. PRECIP AND CAA MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE AREA LATE FRI
AFTN. AIRMASS WILL CONT TO COOL FRI NGT SUPPORTING JUST SNOW...
HWVR DEEP MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE PULLING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SO NO ACCUM EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TIGHT NORTHERLY GRADIENT BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS ENHANCING THE
CHILL ACROSS OUR AREA FRI-FRI NGT.

FAIR WX WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV MOVG EAST IN
RENEWED ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S./SRN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A
GOOD CHC OF SHOWERS MONDAY NGT-TUE AS THE SHRTWV MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE GRTLKS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

A BKN-OVC STRATOCU DECK IN HIGH END MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH
AXIS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH DAYTIME HEATING/COLD
ADVECTION...WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS LIKELY HOLDING GUSTS AOB 20
KTS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL THEN SUPPORT A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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