Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 150514
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
AND MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

AS FAST AS LOW CLOUDS BEGAN TO MIX OUT...DIURNAL CU ERUPTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THESE HAVE BEEN STEADILY ON THE DECREASE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD END UP
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE NW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE. THIS
WAVE...CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 18Z MONDAY. BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE NORTH AND NW PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH
THAT PHASES AND POTENTIALLY BRINGS BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN IN SE AREAS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING TOWARDS HIGH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THINGS NO HIGHER THAN LIKELY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND NOT AN OVERLY DYNAMIC OR
MOISTURE LADEN SYSTEM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HIGHS WILL BE
TEMPERED A BIT BY CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY NW...REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT FAR NW WHERE FASTER CLOUD
AND RAIN ARRIVAL WILL LIMIT HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET STRETCH OF WX EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH TEMPS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL UNDER A SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD. THIS TROUGHING RELAXES
LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MODEST WARMING
TREND. ASSOCIATED WAA SURGE WITHIN STRENGTHENING LLJ IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO QUESTION BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/DEPTH OF WAVE AT THIS FCST RANGE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE GIVEN
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
HAVE TO WORK WITH. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT KSBN...AND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS
AT KFWA. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A LOW END
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD AS NEXT LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTLES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


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