Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 021715
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE SEEN BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AT PRESS TIME WITH
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVED OUT OF NE ILLINOIS BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. KIWX RADAR
DOES SHOW SOME SPORADIC RETURNS SOUTH OF US-30 BUT HIGH BASES
PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NORTHERN EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THIS MORNING AND MAY LEAD TO MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUNSHINE. STILL MAINTAINING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCT CU
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGHS. NE
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND ALLOW LAKE SHORE
AREAS TO WARM MORESO THAN YESTERDAY.

DTX 00Z SOUNDING GIVE FORESIGHT INTO WHAT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH VERY
DRY AIRMASS SET TO DRIFT S AND SW INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES. YET ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE...ESPECIALLY NE AREAS WHERE LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

BROAD/DISJOINTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COMBINED WITH STILL COOL/STABLE GREAT LAKES...WILL
MAINTAIN DECENT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.
SOUTHERN TRACK OF MAIN CVA BULLSEYE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE A STEADY FEED OF COOL/DRY/STABLE
AIR IN NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING WAVE. THIS WILL SHUNT
THE MAIN THETA- E GRADIENT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN OUR
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR MENTIONABLE POP. COOL START TO THE MORNING AND
CONTINUED (ALBEIT LIGHT) COOL AIR ADVECTION IN NE FLOW WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PLEASANT WEATHER THEN SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
OUR CWA REMAINS IN THE DOLDRUMS OF SPLIT FLOW. ANOTHER MIDLEVEL WAVE
DOES RIPPLE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT TOTAL
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF FORCING
SUGGEST ZERO IMPACT ON OUR AREA. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RH
FIELDS SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DO
EXPECT A STEADY WARMING TREND THOUGH...LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND STEADY AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER
NEARLY FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOW 80S BY THEN.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESNT REALLY LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN
A MORE FORMIDABLE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT BUT DO EXPECT
RAIN SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 115 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

STUBBORN MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER KFWA RESULTING FROM NE FLOW BRINGING
LK ERIE MARINE LAYER INTO THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER 850MB INVERSION.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING AT KFWA INDICATING INVERSION FINALLY ERODING
AND VIS SAT BEARS TRENDS INDICATING THE SAME AS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP WHILE DIURNAL CU FIELD FILLING IN OVER KSBN AREA. EXPECT
BOTH LOCATIONS TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH LIGHT NE WINDS LT
10KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JAL


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