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000
FXUS63 KIWX 072002
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
302 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. BRIEFLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THIS FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH ONTARIO THIS
EVENING WILL DROP A SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BRIEF UPTICK IN
DEPTH/CONVERGENCE OF THE SINKING ANAFRONT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON LOCALLY GIVEN WEAK PV ADVECTION FROM A
TRAILING OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LEFTOVER RRQ UPPER JET SUPPORT.
MOISTURE QUALITY LOOKS DECENT WITH 3-4 G/KG MODELED AT 850
MB...ALTHOUGH BULK OF WEAK ASCENT INITIALLY GOES TO SFC-700 MB
LAYER SATURATION. MARGINAL THERMAL PROFILES AND MOISTURE DEPTH
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW PELLETS/SLEET OR DRIZZLE ACROSS
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT ALONG/SOUTHEAST
OF HWY 24 IN INDIANA/OHIO MAY ALLOW WET BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET TO WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SUGGESTS
PRECIP MAY START AS RAIN SHOWERS HERE BEFORE POSSIBLY ENDING AS A
BRIEF MIX...ESPECIALLY MARION-TO-LIMA IF PCPN SURVIVES THIS FAR
SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NORTH
OF HWY 24 WITH LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION SOUTH. OTHERWISE...ONLY
NOTICEABLE CHANGES TO THE FCST WAS TO ADD L/RA/IP CHANCES TO THE WX
GRIDS AND BUMP UP POPS TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLW AND EVENTUAL REEMERGENCE OF WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH PATTN ACRS THE CONUS XPCD THIS PD. HWVR POTENTIAL PHASING
ISSUES W/PRIMARY SW IMPULSE PROGGED TO AMPLIFY SWD OUT OF CANADA MID
PD STILL MIRED W/UNCERTAINTY AND A MULTITUDE OF DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

DEFINITIVE TRENDS STILL LACKING BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IDEA OF
FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND ROBUST GOMEX MSTR RTN STILL FIT WITH PRIOR
GRIDDED FCST IDEAS ESP TUE NIGHT-WED AND BEFITTING OF ANOTHER UPWARD
BUMP IN POPS. OTRWS SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL RIDGING XPCD TO DVLP INADV
OF THIS SYS MON-TUE AND IN LIGHT OF INCREASING INTENSITY TRENDS SEEN
WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS FURTHER BOTH DAYS.

RENEWED ERN NOAM TROUGHING WILL LEAD TO A BRIEF COOLDOWN FOLLOWED LT
PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL DROP
THROUGH SBN AROUND 08-09Z AND FWA 11-12Z. POST FRONTAL
COOLING/SATURATION SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO LOW MVFR JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT PCPN TO SET UP
ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT AFTER 11-12Z AT SBN (AROUND 14Z AT FWA) AS
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE PROPAGATES THROUGH AMID RRQ UPPER JET
SUPPORT. PTYPE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY SNOW WITH BEST CHANCE FOR
SNOW AND IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT SBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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